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Projecting the Winners of the 2012 Breeders’ Cup

Wise Dan and jockey John Velazquez win the Grade 2, $500,000 Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga Race Course.
Photo: NYRA, Adam Coglianese
Hoping to do better than the local weatherman, I venture out of the comfortable and into the murky game of future telling by making public my early selections for the 2012 Breeders’ Cup. A fool’s mission maybe, but hey, with only eight weeks to go until the big two days at Santa Anita, most of these horse will only see one more race before they lineup for the chance to win the biggest race of their lives.
 
As always, don’t be afraid to let me know the error of my ways…
 
Juvenile Sprint- Spurious Precision I cannot be sure that he will not
go for the big game of the two-turn Juvenile, but he looks more like a one-turn specialist to me, and a very, very good one at that.
 
Juvenile Filly Turf – Funfair The Christophe Clement filly has been nothing if not impressive in her two fast wins on the grass. She will need to stretch it out in November, but looking at the pedigree and knowing her trainer, the trip should be no problem.
 
Filly & Mare Sprint – Groupie Doll It all came together for the Doll in the Humana Distaff and more of the same in November will earn her a championship. More on my feelings on this one coming in tomorrow’s blog.
 
Juvenile Fillies – Executiveprivilege My favorite juvenile filly in the nation is Al Stall’s Sign, but since I do not expect him to rush her into the Juvenile Fillies, I am going with the safe play, and the current queen of west coast juvenile fillies.
 
Filly & Mare Turf – The Fugue I have seen this young filly on video in Europe enough to know that she is the real deal and could well hold her American foes over the proverbial barrel. 

Ladies’ Classic – It’s Tricky If it were a mile and a quarter, Royal Delta would be the pick, but I was so impressed with It’s Tricky’s gutsy performance last time that I just could not pick against her. Hot sophomores, Questing and Potesta add spice to this interesting heat.
 
Marathon - Redeemed I’m still holding out hope that this might be my long shot play in the Classic, but as of now, he looks more likely for the Marathon. The fast dirt at Santa Anita should be good for the American cause, and I believe Samantha Siegel’s charge to be our best.
 
Juvenile Turf – Brown Almighty I had a hard time picking between this one from the first crop of Big Brown and the impressive rally of With Anticipation winner, Balance the Books, but in the end I had to go with the colt who I saw impressively win his debut at Arlington Park.
 
Sprint - Emcee The Forego sold me on this one. He will have to take his talent west, but I don’t see that to be a problem for the lightly raced colt who is getting very good at the right time. He has the speed to stay close, and the pounce to take over the race at the eighth pole.
 
Turf Sprint - Caracortado A wide open affair to be sure, but a healthy scarface rallying down the lane over the downhill course just seems to be a wise choice at this point. When healthy, he is a big time talent.
 
Dirt Mile - Coil He may be a bit of a dark horse with only a pair of races so far this year, but I have no doubt that the talent is there, and I believe a flat mile at Santa Anita will be right up his alley.
 
Turf – Snow Fairy Point of Entry looks great, and you know I cannot wait for the return to turf for Dullahan, but I have too much respect for European turf racing not to pick this fantastic race mare. It seems a certainty that Snow Fairy is coming over, and I, for one, cannot wait to see her in the flesh.
 
Juvenile – Know More Tough to pick any juvenile over the rest at this point, but I love this one’s first two races, and he looks to me to be a horse who should appreciate two turns. If his Del Mar form carries over a couple of hours north, I like his chances to clinch a championship for the O’Neill-Reddam duo.
 
Mile – Wise Dan I’m sure there will be some salty Euros coming over, and I have by no means given up on Mr. Commons, but I find it hard to ignore the talent of Wise Dan. If this is his BC race, he will be the one they all have to beat.
 
Classic – Game On Dude There are many good older horses in the nation that I could have gone with here, but in the end, I have to go with the Dude at Santa Anita. I consider him almost a sure thing to be in the mix at his favorite track, and has a legitimate chance to do one better than his runner-up finish last year. If the Breeders’ Cup were at Belmont this year, Mucho Macho Man would be the top choice.
 

 

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Older Comments about Projecting the Winners of the 2012 Breeders’ Cup ...

Game on Dude is a big play against. Archwarrior will win the Juvenile and Dancing with Julia in the Juvenile Fillies. I always favor the winner of the Ancient Title in the Sprint, is that one of the stakes with a new name?
  • MarkRobbens · couldn't agree more about game on dude. an absolute play against. biggest underlay of the two days · 802 days ago
Still think The Factor can be a factor in the sprint once he gets back on regular dirt
great selectiions Zipse! I prefer Richards Kid and Dhaamer in the Marathon. I agree with you that Point of Entry has a real shot in the Turf. Wise Dan is a monster in the Mile. Can't wait to see the full list of euros coming over for the Saturday race card turf races
I think no one beats excelebration if he comes over, I hope Wise Dan runs the classic and he will win, Amazombie in his sprint, Shackleford in the dirt mile, and Shanghai Bobby in the Juvenile sprint!
I would have to say this is my predictions for some of the races:
Shackleford for the Dirt Mile. He's reached top form and is at his best now. He's a miler at heart. People are saying he can only win around one turn but he's won at two before.
I bet RD could do the Ladies Turf.
Royal Delta and her new jockey in whichever race.
Common, Brian...dreamers can dream, right? At a mile, with no pace pressure Silver Max will be real tough! So long as Excelebration doesn't show up one of us should get the last laugh in November :)
Just one for the Turf Mile? How about this tri-Obviously, Mr Commons, Jeranimo.
JV Sprint or BCJ, Goldencents. Hope he loves dirt.
My girl, Groupie Doll, Amazombie, sprints.
California Flag, Joe Talamo, Santa Anita's hill.
It's way too early,....I have see how the races are going to unfold, but check my website during the BC week and I am telling you right now I am going to have couple good picks
I think I have to agree with AmbitiousD. If MMM can get a good front-running position and not be hemmed in, I think he could potentially get the better of Game On Dude.
Who does Richard Mandella have this year? The last time the BC was on dirt @ SA he won 4!
Remember, some of these picks have Santa Anita in mind. The dirt out there is an advantage to the western horses ... would not mind see Shack win the Dirt Mile though ;-) Silver Max over Wise Dan? No way, Matt!
Love your picks, Brian. I will, however, have to disagree with some and say Silver Max will get the best of Wise Dan in the mile, and I'm going with my heart over my head to say Acclamation will top Snow Fairy in the Turf. For the classic, if MMM can get a pace set up like Ron the Greek did in the Big Cap, then I'll have to put Moocho over Game on Dude. Let the fun discussions begin
I'm going to have to give you some grief for choosing Coil over Shackleford for the Dirt Mile. Shack really settled into his niche this year, and I think he'll be tough to beat, especially after seeing what he did last year when being asked to wheel back to a mile after running routes all year.

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