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Preakness 2013 – the Winning Running Style

Our analysis of the winning Kentucky Derby running style was spot on when we saw that the Derby was not a race for front-runners, but was instead, a race that favored horses coming off the pace. That is exactly what happened at Churchill Downs when Orb swept past the field from 20 lengths behind.
 
What kind of running style has been best in the Preakness, with its much smaller field that fits into one starting gate? Clearly horses do not fall as far behind and jockeys do not have to worry much about bad trips caused by a less than clean break from the gate, or traffic from tired horses.
 
Again looking at the running line of the Preakness winners, since the year 2000, reveals that only one horse has won the second leg of the Triple Crown on the lead, from gate to wire and that was the 2009 Horse of the Year, Rachel Alexandra. Shackleford and War Emblem won this race by very closely prompting and pushing the early pace setter.
 
 
In the Preakness, the most successful running style is that of the stalker. Six of the past 13 winners came from a handful of lengths behind to gain their victory. Five of them had taken control of the race at the stretch call. Last year I’ll Have Another came from just a few lengths off the pace to win by a neck near the wire.
 
Curlin and Point Given were the only deep closers. While Red Bullet and Afleet Alex had the running style of a closer, both were far behind but not more than 10 lengths.
 
As much as people like to say that the Preakness is a race for early speed, it simply is not true. When you are handicapping this year’s Preakness, think about the potential front-runners who are unlikely to win the race. In that category I see: Oxbow, Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Govenor Charlie, and Titletown Five.
 
Try and identify which horses are going to be best suited to sit behind the pace and rally to victory. The horses with the ideal running styles are: Will Take Charge, Departing, Mylute, and Orb.
 
The most versatile horse in the field is Orb. We know that the Derby winner can be a deep closer, but Orb also won the Florida Derby from only four lengths behind. He has too much talent and experience and he knows how to get to the finish line first. My pick is for Orb to win in Baltimore, and bring the racing world to New York, in quest of the elusive Triple Crown

 

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Older Comments about Preakness 2013 – the Winning Running Style...

Laz I appreciate your influencing the comment, I didn't have the average onhand
Cocoa I "second" your comment.
I idea I was trying to impart is the idea of SUSTAINING a constant interval pace. THAT is what sustained is, not some horse coming from 12 or 18 back.
Secretariat's Belmont, 24 sec per quarter
mm... I think you're a second off t_v
I did have it correctly then,,,it just seemed too fast but then we know just how far the record was destroyed too
Yes sword. I guess in Swahelli, 24 is 23. LMAO
Wow Laz...I didn't think it would come out to 24 flat but I just did the math and it exact 24 flat.
Secretariat did not sustain a 23 second per quarter pace in the Belmont.' His Belmont fractions were: 23 3/5; 22 3/5; 23 3/5; 24 2/5; 24 4/5; 25. Average per quarter was 24 seconds flat.
the colt wins or loses the race so why should a rider, a tertiary factor at most, be responsible for the outcome?
Departing steals it at the head of stretch!!!
Rosie won't make excuses because she's a winner... Winners don't make excuses... Losers sure do though
Hopefully mylute has some energy left after getting sawed off and pinched at the start of the derby. Watch the aerial view.....he ran pretty evenly to Orb after that...of course Rosie will not make an excuse being a pioneer and all. You guys be the judge
@travel vic; secretariat sometimes stalked, but he'd throw in some sprinting when he felt it was the right thing to do. Some suggested he sprinted for 1.5 miles in Belmont. I love Dr Fager; maybe Dr F could have beaten Sec at a mile - but I don't know....? Hard to say.
  • icyhotboo · That would be a tough one as you have to throw Easy Goer in that mix as well. 132.2 as a 3yo, amazing. Fager wasn't right until the end of his 3yo season, had weak kness. · 424 days ago
typo 26 seconds per quarter is more like it
Stalkers win most races as their tactical speed allows them to adjust to any pace. This race sets up perfectly with this field for Goldencents. The KD is a toss, an aberration on liquid ice.
  • sctafl · Who do you think is the greatest tactician we've seen thus far? · 424 days ago
  • icyhotboo · Orb, this year. He doesn't have great speed but he brings his A game every time. No matter pace or surface. He's really hard to go against with any degree of confidence. The thing is with Titleton setting a blistering pace for WTC he does the same for Orb and Goldencents. · 424 days ago
Secretariat's Belmont was the CLASSIC, 23 seconds per quarter, SUSTAINED move
Stlakers have limits of adaptation, they always have had. Stalk a Dr. Fager and you are not going to be around long. Stalk an Affirmed and SOMETIME you might be close later
D Wayne will likely want to tell one and all now he knows how to win, maybe two decades back.
D. Wayne Lukas understands what it takes to win this race and you know Titletown Five and Oxbow are do ensure a swift pace to set it up for the best of the Lukas trio, Will Take Charge, a horse with the right energy distribution profile as you pointed out in your blog. However, they are all chasing Orb and his nearest rival in the Preakness, Mylute.

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