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Laura Pugh:
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile may not be among the top tier Breeders' Cup races, since compared to its older siblings it is still one of the “babies” in the Breeders Cup family. However, it won’t stay that way for long, as it consistently draws some of the top horses training in North America, and 2011’s field may just be the best yet. The entire field is solid, but there are two talented forces that stand above the rest, Jackson Bend and Twirling Candy.
It’s not an easy task trying to separate these two as they both are extremely talented and are two of the top horses in training, however, while I may be a big Jackson Bend fan, I shall give the edge to Twirling Candy. The big, dark, handsome son of Candy Ride has shown an enormous amount of ability from the beginning. Starting off his career with a dominant win on synthetics, he moved to the green and showed the same dominance and wound up winning a total of four races in a row.
Unfortunately, while talented, he also earned the reputation of an unpredictable and headstrong colt, which saw him nearly DQ’d in the Del Mar Derby, finish a tired fourth in the Goodwood, and then cause a huge ruckus in this year’s Santa Anita Handicap. Brilliant but unpredictable, John Sadler knew he had a star, but needed to work out some major kinks. It seems as the season has progressed that Sadler has done just that, taking the juvenile delinquent, and turning him into a complete professional.
Coming into the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, nobody can argue Twirling Candy’s versatility, foundation, speed, and ability to run a two turn race. Over his career and this year, Twirling Candy has demonstrated that he has an unbelievable amount of speed. He has shown that he can use that speed to run his rivals off their feet at distances as short as six and a half furlongs to nine furlongs. He also has a graded stakes wins at seven furlongs, a mile, and a nine furlongs, so we know the distance will be no trouble for him, where Jackson Bend may be more of a one turn, seven furlong specialist, based on his most recent form.
Twirling Candy has also shown versatility over different surfaces and in the form of running styles. He has graded stakes wins over dirt, turf, and synthetics and can either run you into the ground early or stalk and pounce. This gives me confidence that he will have no trouble adjusting to the Churchill Downs dirt, and will not be so affected by things such as post position or the amount of speed in the race, like some others may be. Jackson Bend is 0 for 4 at a mile, 0 for 2 at Churchill Downs and only has one win out of 10 tries at distances over a mile. He has one running style that he has utilized in his wins this year, and that is closing. That can cause traffic problems galore, not something you want in something that is only a mile long.
Lastly, Twirling Candy has a superior foundation coming into the race. He has run in two nine furlong contests this year and three 10 furlong tests. He has been right there in all but one, and that was the rodeo Santa Anita Handicap. Yes, he did miss the Goodwood, however, that is a minor miss when he is coming off a campaign that has already provided him with a very deep bottom. The cut back in distance will only be a plus, especially since we know he can already handle the distance of a mile quite easily. Jackson Bend does have some distance races under his belt, but his last three were sprint, sprint, and mile. While that is certainly not a bad foundation, one cannot say it is superior to that of Twirling Candy’s.
Both are very talented colts, but Jackson Bend may very well be in the wrong Breeders Cup race, and will be up against it when he runs into a much more professional and mature monster, in Twirling Candy. |
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Brian Zipse:
Laura, I could not agree more. Since the creation of the race back in 2007, the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile has produced awesome performances, fast times, fantastic finishes, and juicy payoffs. With competitive full fields the norm, it has quickly become one of my favorites of the World Championships. This year, with the attractive matchup of Twirling Candy from the West against Jackson Bend from the East looming, promises to be another good one.
And I have enormous respect for the big talent that is Twirling Candy. He has proven to be one of the ones to beat in any big race in California no matter the distance or surface. The problem is, I have no idea what he’s best at. Meanwhile, Jackson Bend has been nothing short of a revelation since his return to one-turn races. Now a specialist at extended sprints, Jackson Bend has run three consecutive excellent races in exactly the type of race that he will get at Churchill Downs in a few weeks.
Maybe part of Candy’s quirkiness is that he is not sure if he is supposed to be a sprinter or a router, or whether he will be running on dirt, turf, or a synthetic surface from day to day. I know I like to have a routine to be at my very best. That is why I prefer Jackson Bend in this race. Make no mistake, Jackson Bend has found his niche. He is a dirt horse who can finish off these one-turn races with a powerful run in the stretch. If the pace is fast, he can come from well back, but on a moderate pace he can be near the lead. It is almost like the BC Dirt Mile was the race he was born for.
While you may worry at a mile, I think the trip is perfect for Jackson Bend. Let’s face it - in his explosive wins in the James Marvin and the Grade 1 Forego, he would have only won by more if the distance was a mile rather than 7 furlongs. In his last race, it may have looked like Uncle Mo was running away from him in the 8 furlong Kelso, but I saw it differently. The small field and no early competition for the favorite made it nearly an impossible task for Jackson Bend, yet he still managed to make a huge move into a blazing third quarter. It was the kind of move that will win most any race, but on that day of course, Uncle Mo had enough left to sprint home.
If this race was on turf or a synthetic surface in California, I would agree with you, but it is not. This is dirt, and it is not any kind of rock hard California dirt either. Churchill Downs at a mile with a strong pace, as the race is almost certain to have, will set up perfectly for a horse who knows how to rally big in an extended sprint. Plus, as I alluded too, he has enough tactical speed to be placed where he needs to be early in the race. As for Twirling Candy, I wonder how close to the strong pace he will be. If he is too close he is danger of getting burned, but if he is too far off the lead, he will be attempting to do something that he has never done in his career.
Yes he did miss the Goodwood, which makes me think the Dirt Mile is the choice for Twirling Candy only because he is not at his best, and therefore not ready for the Classic. If that is the case, I don’t think he wants any piece of Jackson Bend, who is in the form of his life. I don’t really buy the foundation argument either. This is a long sprint, exactly what Jackson Bend has been excelling at. Whoever runs the fastest mile will win. I’ll take the horse that is primed to do that … Jackson Bend.
I agree with you there … one horse may very well be in the wrong Breeders’ Cup race, but it is not Jackson Bend. I like him better at a flat mile, as his last race will attest, than at 6 furlongs, which is likely a little short for him. Meanwhile, Twirling Candy is a talented horse who has no home. Two excellent horses, but for all the reasons I outlined, Jackson Bend will be the better one in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.
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