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Angela D'Amico:
What makes for a great racehorse? What is that one thing that pushes one horse above the other in a Horse of the Year Debate? Some would say that a perfect season would do it or maybe beating the other horses that are also nominated. To me, Horse of the Year belongs to the horse that goes above and beyond expectations. Right now, we are in the midst of one of the greatest rivalries of our game…the Havre De Grace/Blind Luck rivalry. Both mares are the top of their class; they may even be the best that the U.S. has to offer right now. These two have met time and time again, with different outcomes and their final duel for 2011 may come down to the Horse of the Year Award
Although it has been a tug of war all year regarding the best mare, Havre de Grace is about to edge out her only competition when she enters the starting gate at Saratoga to take on the boys in the Woodward. This is a classic sign of a great horse meeting every challenge and going beyond expectations. Her record for the year could speak on its own merit, but we have to consider that she is about to step it up a notch and face the boys. All we ask of our horses is that they beat their competition, at their level. Havre de Grace has already done that and is about to do more. A campaign like this is what thrust Rachel Alexandra above the rest in 2009.
I expected this to be your argument…what if she loses the Woodward? Well, the truth is, I would have to see her performance. Don’t forget, sometimes great horses lose but are greater in defeat than in their wins. Take the performance of Zenyatta last year against Blame. I think the one loss of her career spoke more about her greatness than her 19 victories put together. I am not alone; the one loss from Zenyatta did not deny her the Horse of the Year honors in 2010.
If that is not enough for you, there is her record for the year. She has raced only 4 times so far this year, but has won 3 of the 4. In the fourth race, she finished a very close second. All of these races were graded stakes and in impressive company. What company you ask? Well how about Life at Ten and Switch; both graded stakes winners in their own right. When Lady’s Secret won Horse of the Year in 1986, she only crossed the finish line first 67% of the time and one of the times she lost happened to be in the Woodward.
Up until right now, these horses have been very tight in Horse of the Year honors. But stepping up a notch changes all of that. Havre de Grace is answering the call, Blind Luck is not. Havre de Grace has beat Blind Luck and Blind Luck has beaten Havre de Grace. Just because you have been the other contender for Horse of the Year does not mean you are given the Horse of the Year award…just ask Blame.
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Brian Zipse:
“Above and beyond expectations.” I like that. Unfortunately, there is only room for one Horse of the Year, and that goes to the horse who wins the biggest combination of races in a consistent fashion. In the early handicapping of the HoY race for 2011, I would agree that Blind Luck and Havre De Grace are as much in the race as anyone. I would throw in Tizway, Acclamation, and Cape Blanco as the other leaders if the year ended today. So how are one of these five, or maybe an up and comer like Stay Thirsty going to separate themselves? Simple they are going to win more races in the fall. As much as I hate to say it, I do not think that by choosing the easier path, Blind Luck’s connections have hampered her chances to win the Horse of the Year award.
Like I said, right or wrong, it is all about winning. Merely running in the Woodward, while admirable, will not elevate Havre De Grace’s chances for the big prize unless she wins. If she does win the Woodward, her credentials become stronger, but certainly not strong enough to overcome a loss in the Breeders’ Cup. Meanwhile, Blind Luck will be expected to win the Lady’s Secret. A loss would be more damaging to her stature than a loss by Havre De Grace at Saratoga would be, but certainly not so damaging that a win at the Breeders’ Cup could not repair. Havre De Grace is taking the more sportsmanlike path to the Breeders’ Cup, which I love, but the Breeders’ Cup will decide things, not the race before.
That’s true, but Havre De Grace is not coming into the Woodward with 19 consecutive wins, so comparing the two does not get it done. In fact, as much as I like Havre De Grace, the truth is she has only two victories in six tries against Blind Luck. If she loses one more time to Blind Luck at Churchill Downs, how can she possibly win a year-end award? No matter what happens in Saturday’s Woodward, if this rivalry ends up 5-2 in favor of Blind Luck, Havre De Grace has no chance for an Older Female award, let alone Horse of the Year.
There is merit to your argument that so far in 2011, Havre De Grace has had the better campaign than Blind Luck. I would counter though, that voters are human. In this ‘what have you done for me lately world’, they favor Blind Luck because they see she won the last match-up. This can be seen in the latest HRN Power Rankings. Also, keep in mind that in their two meetings, Blind Luck won the much more important race in the Delaware Handicap. Finally, I would like to add that the fact that Blind Luck won 3 of 4 last year should not matter in 2011, but deep down, I think it comes into play in comparing the two excellent fillies.
On this I agree, Havre De Grace running in the Woodward is good for the sport. I wish Blind Luck had run in a better race than the Lady’s Secret, but in the long run it will not matter. Consider this scenario: Havre De Grace wins the Woodward, and Blind Luck wins the Lady’s Secret, and then they meet in the Ladies’ Classic. It would be winner take all for Horse of the Year … unless of course, Tizway wins the Jockey Club and the Breeders’ Cup Classic … because the Classic is the biggest race of all.
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