Breeders' Cup 2014

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  • 201 Pre-entered for the Breeders' Cup, including 15 in the Classic. Posted 8 days ago

Onlyforyou, Stopchargingmaria face off in Davona Dale

When the eight fillies assembled for the G2 Davona Dale Stakes at Gulfstream Park face the starter on Saturday, meet leading trainer Todd Pletcher will have two good shots to win the race for the third time in the last eight years. He will be represented by the only two graded stakes winners in the field: undefeated Onlyforyou and dual graded stakes winner Stopchargingmaria. The two have been installed as the morning line favorites over their six rivals. As a Road to the Kentucky Oaks race, the Davona Dale will be award the top 4 finishers points on a 50-20-10-5 scale. 
 
 
Abou—(Distorted Humor—Polish Flower, by Danzig) Heavily bet in her career debut, Abou was a first out winner going 6 furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs. I take the same approach to Tampa Bay Downs (and Calder, for that matter) that I take to Vegas: what happens there, stays there. Of the four fillies she faced that day, only two have raced since, and neither of them won. I haven’t particularly liked her morning works, and her upside comes in her pedigree. She is a half to 2011 Illinois Derby winner Joe Vann, and her dam Polish Flower was a half to the stakes winner Glenwood Canyon. She is not bred to go very far in terms of distance, but a mile and a sixteenth may be within her scope.
 
 
Luna Santa—(Birdstone—Watchfull, by Notebook) As much as I dislike Abou’s morning works, I dislike Luna Santa’s even more. She enters this spot off two straight losses, but she does figure to improve when returning to dirt as her last two efforts have been on turf and synthetics. Both career wins have come at a mile, and that may be all the distance she wants. Sire Birdstone was a classic winner, but her distaff line is known more for being adept at sprint distances.
 
 
Onlyforyou—(Malibu Moon—Erhu, by Tactical Cat) Undefeated in 3 career starts, Onlyforyou has done absolutely nothing wrong. The only downside for me is that this will be her first time stretching out, but Pletcher wins 24% of the time when extending his charges from sprints to routes. In her last start, she moved forward very nicely while moving up to a graded stakes spot. She was an easy winner that day, though she didn’t face the toughest field. (10 points)
 
 
Aurelia’s Belle—(Lemon Drop Kid—Aurelia, by Danzig) Going forward, Aurelia’s Belle is a filly that I feel will benefit from more ground. Though she broke her maiden on synthetics, she has shown good dirt firm at Gulfstream this winter while facing buzz saws Onlyforyou and Sweet Whiskey in graded stakes sprints. She finished 3rd in the 6 furlong G3 Old Hat and improved her finish to second in the 7 furlong G2 Forward Gal last out. Sire Lemon Drop Kid was a top classic distance winner, and damsire Danzig tends to produce long-winded runners. Dam Aurelia was a non-winner, but she counts Grade 1 winner at 9 furlongs Aldiza among her siblings who were best at middle distances. Her last two works indicate that she is on her toes and ready to go for trainer Wayne Catalano. (4 points)
 
 
House Rules—(Distorted Humor—Teamgeist, by Mutakddim) After two poor finishes in sprints, trainer Allen Jerkens stretched this daughter of Distorted Humor out, and the added distance paid off. Stretched out to 8.5 furlongs, House Rules finished a distant second to Please Explain, who went on to win a stakes race in her next start. House Rules then graduated in her fourth career start when running a mile here at Gulfstream. She hails from a classy Argentinean distaff line. Dam Teamgeist was a multiple graded stakes winner in Argentina, and second dam Bavarian was a sister to group 1 winner Francisbor. The filly signaled her readiness for this spot with a bullet 6 furlong work in 1.13:72 on February 15.
 
 
Penwith—(Bernardini—Composure, by Touch Gold) Like the two rivals directly to her inside, Penwith is a filly that appreciates a route of ground. She was a non-factor in her debut, a 6 furlong sprint at Belmont. She graduated next out going a mile before running 3rd to Stopchargingmaria in the 9 furlong G2 Demoiselle. She enters the Davona Dale off a win in a NW1X back in January. If her pedigree is any indication, Penwith will be one to keep a sharp eye on. She is a half sister to multiple graded stakes placed Centring, who had the misfortune to come along at the same time as Royal Delta. Penwith’s dam Composure is a multiple Grade 1 winner, and she finished 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies when it was run at 1 1/8 mile. Composure is a full sister to Ready Set, a graded stakes winner who was best at distances up to 1 1/8 mile. (2 points)
 
 
Holiday Magic—(Congrats—Harliday, by Harlan’s Holiday) In 7 career starts, Holiday Magic has faced the starter five times at Calder. In her two ventures away from that track, she finished 8th in a stakes at Gulfstream and 3rd in a stake on the all-weather track at Ocala Training Center. She doesn’t get much from her distaff line, and her sire was a winner up to 8.5 furlongs. She put in a sharp 5 furlong work in 59:91 on February 14, but that work was her only one since running at Ocala on January 21.
 
 
Stopchargingmaria—(Tale of the Cat—Exotic Bloom, by Montbrook) Based on past performances alone, Stopchargingmaria is the class of the field. She’s multiple Grade 1 placed while facing top fillies Sweet Reason and Artemis Agrotera. She was then the runaway winner of the G3 Tempted and showed grit when winning the G2 Demoiselle by a neck. As much upside as she has, though, she is at a major tactical disadvantage. The Repole Stable owned filly likes to be on or near the lead, but drawing post 8 at this distance has majorly compromised her chances of winning. She will be wide on the clubhouse turn and may even have a wide trip the entire way. If she can overcome her post, she’ll be a winner on class and grit alone. (12 points)
 
 
Likely pace scenario: I see Julien Leparoux gunning Abou out of the gate to establish the lead. Onlyforyou will likely go with her, and if Penwith and Stopchargingmaria can gain good positions, I expect to see them up close early, too. Right behind them will be Luna Santa and House Rules. Holiday Magic and Aurelia’s Belle will be off the pace and will make their bids in the latter stages of the race.
 
 
The Selections: Onlyforyou is going to get the best trip out of the top contenders. Though she is stretching out for the first time, her pedigree indicates she can get the distance. Aurelia’s Belle will put in a late bid, and along with Penwith and Stopchargingmaria, will be there at the end.
 
        Onlyforyou, Aurelia’s Belle, Stopchargingmaria, and Penwith 

 

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Older Comments about Onlyforyou, Stopchargingmaria face off in Davona Dale...

Maria I feel is the most talented, but she's not all that consistent. Combine that with the draw and that makes for bad news, although I am still big on her for the spring races. For this race though, I'm going with Onlyforyou, though if the price is right I might exacta box the two.
Rubs, living in Georgia, I cannot bet. However, if I were to bet this race, I would NOT make four win bets. I would use the above four in exotics wagers.
Johnny V. is starting to get his timing back.He finally gets back on board the filly he won easily with first out.Onlyforyou xomes up a lone Speed if Javier wants it. Johnny should be sitting right off her flank. Unless the real Track Superintendant does not show up for this.Then Johnny has a shot to run her down. If the Supe does so up and tightens the surface. Javier may be waving goodbye at the half mile pole. More to do with the track ,then her being a better filly.
Aurelia's Belle
you plan to mske 4 win bets ? or box half the field in exactas ? not sure tbe point of this article!?!? f

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