My First Take On The Breeders’ Cup Classic Morning Line

10/12/2010 11:43 AM  | racecalling.com
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The morning line favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Classic is a foregone conclusion, but how the betting goes behind Zenyatta makes for an interesting discussion. Because it’s never too early to get excited about a big race, I took a few minutes to build a line using the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Stakes Tracker on Horse Racing Nation as a guide to the probable field.

For starters, I made Zenyatta the 5-2 morning line favorite. Last year she went off closer to 3-1 than 5-2 (her exact odds were $2.80-to-1), but her reputation is stronger this year. That said, last year she seemed more explosive from a visual standpoint and she was racing on her favorite surface (as far as we know). This year, her kick seems somewhat less deadly, and on pure speed figures (risky on synthetics, I know), she’s not quite as fast. Ultimately, however, 5-2 is a deserving and realistic line on the defending champ.

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What the Nation is saying about My First Take On The Breeders’ Cup Classic Morning Line...

cugel, you just don't get it. The competition doesn't matter when your in a class by yourself like the late great Joe Louis
Zenyatta finishes. She goes from last to first and is flying at the wire. Hard to think there's any horse IN THE HISTORY OF HORSE RACING who can consistently close as fast as her.
Crugel, wouldn't you think that a horse who's 19 for 19 is a tough son of a gun? And it's Zenyatta who's proven at this distance, QR and Blame are SUSPECT. In case you didn't see last years BC Classic, see how
Quality Road is most effective with a target to run at. Blame ran him down in the Whitney because he got lazy up front. Look for Johnny V to sit just off the pace in the Classic. He runs well fresh but the ten furlong distance could prove his downfall.
We haven"t seen the bottom of Zenyatta yet. Mike does just enough to win, then shuts her down every race. He gonna cut the dogs loose and it will be a huge win. Quality Road better steal a bunch of splits to win it; Haynesfield won't let him.
@markinsac: Clearly you didn't read my earlier post in which I enlightened the Zeny-philes about the quality of last year's Classic field versus this year. Last year Z was clearly the horse to beat because she was on home turf and faced a field with a weak record on synthetic surfaces. I included Z in my exotic bets and won. Last year, if he raced, QR probably would not have beat Z. But this year, he's much better and there are 3-5 other males who are stonger on dirt at 1 1/4 than Zeny and will beat her.
@curlin: I'm glad to see that you're already practising your excuses for when Z loses the Classic. You'll need them.
Tough talk curlin about someone hating a likeable athlete when you have ranked Zenyatta a 10 three times in your HRN ranking and Rachel, Blame & Quality Road each as a 1. Let me guess..you really like those 3 horses, you just feel as though they are legitimately 3 ratings below horses who have never won a single race. Hypocrite
Am I the only one who finds it hard not to hate CTC? The dude is a douche. Right now he is jerking off to a picture of Rachel Alexandra. After the breeders cup he will disappear from this site. And If by some far out reason zenyatta fails to win he will be on here saying that a horse that finishes 19 for 20 with 2 breeders cup wins is overrated. She didn't need to come back this year to prove anything. She could've retired at the end of last year and she'd still be one of the greatest horse of all time and by far the greatest horse of her generation. CTC, I have never seen someone hate such a likable athlete as much as you hate zenyatta.
Well it is nice to see so much discussion on the boards but talk ad hominems galore. I plan on handicaping every race except the big one. It will be exciting to watch.
Mr. Eng could learn from reading MY stuff....
Question for Cugel: Did you pick Zenyatta in last year's Classic? Didn't top handicappers disregard Zenyatta only to have egg on their face? Didn't your daddy teach you that 19 for 19 horses are dangerous?
Hump's quote: "Interesting and very far fetched to have handicapped a field that has not even been brought together over a surface that changes as radically as that one in Louisville. Amamzing". Hey HUMP - I'm glad that you now admit how crazy it is for you and all the Zeny-philes here to have already handicapped the Classic and picked Z to win despite the fact that the field isn't confirmed and the track conditions aren't known and the prep training has been completed. Read a good basic book on handicapping skills before making dumb comments. May I suggest "Betting On Horse Races For Dummies" by Richard Eng. It's on sale now at Amazon for $13.59. Hurry up and get your copy before it sells out. All the Zeny-philes already have their copies.
Arazi, I think you're spot on. I think Lookin At Lucky and Blame are the two that Zenyatta has to run down. Blame didn't handle 1-1/4 as well as I thought he might in JCGC. But it was an off track that day. That could've played a huge role? Because Haynesfield made sure the going was lively up front. Blame loves the Churchill Downs surface. But can he get 1-1/4? Judging by the JCGC, one would have to say no. But on a dry Churchill Downs surface, things could be very different? I think Lucky will stay the trip, too. But in a close finish, I think Zenyatta run's them both down. JMO.
I think maybe Gio Ponti goes after Goldikiva where he has a very good chance and leaves Zenyatta alone.
Interesting and very far fetched to have handicapped a field that has not even been brought together over a surface that changes as radically as that one in Louisville. Amamzing
Zenyatta crushed Ginger Punch on the dirt and remains undefeated, as for the no class claimers you say you only facees you are the one with no real knowlege of the game. You have about as much credit as that idoit Andy Beyer and his speed facts..Your beloved Rachel got her ass handed to her by claimers...
The CELVER man needs to read Modern Pace Handicapping by Brohamer or Pace is the Race by Hieu Mahl
I agree with arazi that Blame and Lookin At Lucky are Zenyatta's only serious threats at ten furlongs. cugel, Zenyatta has closed and won each of her 19 races against very good and mediocre horses. She gets no pace help and wins. She gets pace help and wins. She closes and wins on Oaklawn conventional dirt, Cushion Track, Polytrack, and Pro-Ride. More power to you if you are going to bet against her in the 2010 BC Classic. Leave her off your tickets at your own peril.
Gio Ponti the best closer in recent years had 3 lengths on her in the 2009 classic in midstretch and she BREEZED by him. How many other horses in the history of racing could do that maybe 12-15 if that. She hasn't lost a step she is closing the last 1/8 in 11.2 c,mon.
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