The morning line favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Classic is a foregone conclusion, but how the betting goes behind Zenyatta makes for an interesting discussion. Because it’s never too early to get excited about a big race, I took a few minutes to build a line using the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Stakes Tracker on Horse Racing Nation as a guide to the probable field.
For starters, I made Zenyatta the 5-2 morning line favorite.
Last year she went off closer to 3-1 than 5-2 (her exact odds were
$2.80-to-1), but her reputation is stronger this year. That said, last
year she seemed more explosive from a visual standpoint and she was
racing on her favorite surface (as far as we know). This year, her kick
seems somewhat less deadly, and on pure speed figures (risky on
synthetics, I know), she’s not quite as fast. Ultimately, however, 5-2
is a deserving and realistic line on the defending champ.