Lucky Wins the 2010 Kentucky Derby - A Vision

4/22/2010 1:13 AM  | horseracingnation.com
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04 October 2009: Lookin at Lucky and Garrett Gomez win the Norfolk Stakes (GI) at Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park, Arcadia, CA.

Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman’s LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike), the 2009 two-year-old champion, rallied from 12th place to win the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1). And the outcome was never in doubt.


Garrett Gomez took plenty of flack for his ride in the Santa Anita Derby, but his trip on the first Saturday in May was a thing of beauty.  He was in no hurry in the early going behind a contested early pace which saw the half in :46.90, and three-quarters in 1:10.95. Trailing by more than ten lengths he began to thread his way through the field down the backstretch. He entered the far turn with four lengths to make up and gradually wore down a stubborn Sidney’s Candy to prevail by a comfortable length and a quarter, with Dublin another length back in third.


Lookin At Lucky finished with plenty left in the tank, registering a 110 Beyer Speed Figure, and it was great to see Gomez redeem himself. He masterfully navigated Lookin At Lucky through the infamous Derby traffic jam and gave Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert his 4th Kentucky Derby trophy. His stopped the clock in 2:02.28 on the fast Churchill Downs oval and paid $10.40 to win.


“Bob wanted to strangle me after the Santa Anita Derby, and the only thing he told me before today’s race was don’t screw it up,” said a jubilant Garrett Gomez, after riding his first Kentucky Derby winner.


Winning conditioner Bob Baffert basked in the spotlight and yelled “four-bagger” as he lifted Gomez in air and shouted “We got the big one Garrett.”


There were numerous troubled trips in the 20-horse cavalry charge. ESKENDEREYA (Giant’s Causeway) was bumped at the start and fell farther back than normal. He made a wide move to get in contention around the far turn but flattened out in the late going. DUBLIN (Afleet Alex) weaved his way through traffic and rallied from 17th place to loom large at the top of the stretch, but he ran out of steam in the final yards and had to settle for the show. AMERICAN LION (Tiznow) took the worst of it as he was slammed from both sides out of the gate and was squeezed back around the first turn. He never recovered from his early troubles and finished a better than appears 10th.


Second-place finisher SIDNEY’S CANDY (Candy Ride) enjoyed a perfect trip under Joe Talamo, closely stalking Conveyance, Rule, and stablemate Line of David through fractions of :23.44, :46.90, and 1:10.95. The John Sadler trainee took over after a mile in 1:36.43 and looked like a winner approaching the stretch. Fifth-place finisher ENDORSEMENT (Distorted Humor) was forwardly placed, stalking in fifth for much of the race under Robby Albarado, and just missed third by a couple of necks.


AWESOME ACT (Awesome Again), 6th, worked his way to get within striking range on the backstretch under Julien Leparoux, but he took the overland route and wound up running out of gas in the stretch.


The Lookin At Lucky-Sidney’s Candy Exacta paid $108.60, and the Trifecta with Dublin returned $1,263. Eskendereya completed a $2,386.80 Superfecta.


Lookin At Lucky earned a trip to Baltimore for the Preakness Stakes on May 15th, and all of the talk has shifted to a possible Triple Crown sweep. Can the talented colt put an end to the long Triple Crown drought? Well, his silver-haired trainer Bob Baffert has been in this spot before and the determined Derby winner sure has a nose for the wire…stay tuned!

    


Full Result Chart Below

#

Contender

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Breeder

1

Lookin At Lucky

Garrett Gomez

Bob Baffert

Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman

Gulf Coast Farms

2

Sidney’s Candy

Joe Talamo

John Sadler

Craig Family Trust

Craig Family Trust

3

Dublin

Terry Thompson

Wayne Lukas

William Mack and Robert Baker

Peter E. Blum & Gerry Dilge

4

Eskendereya

John Velazquez

Todd  Pletcher

Zayat Stables

Sanford R. Robertson

5

Endorsement

Robby Albarado

Shannon Ritter

WinStar Farm LLC.

Kilroy Thoroughbred Partnership

6

Awesome Act

Julien Leparoux

Jeremy Noseda

Vinery Stables and Susan Roy

Flaxman Holdings Ltd.

7

Discreetly Mine

Javier Castellano

Todd  Pletcher

E. Paul Robsham Stables LLC.

E. Paul Robsham Stables LLC.

8

Ice Box

Jose Lezcano

Nick Zito

Robert LaPenta

Denlea Park, Ltd.

9

Interactif

Mike Smith

Todd  Pletcher

Wertheimer and Frere

Wertheimer and Frere

10

American Lion

David Flores

Eoin Harty

WinStar Farm LLC.

WinStar Farms LLC. and Dr. William Lockridge

11

Mission Impazible

Rajiv Maragh

Todd  Pletcher

Twin Creek Racing Stables

Summer Wind Farm

12

Noble’s Promise

Willie Martinez

Kenny McPeek

Chasing Dreams Racing 2008 LLC

Charles Kidder, Ben Kidder, and Nancy Cole

13

Super Saver

Calvin Borel

Todd  Pletcher

WinStar Farm LLC.  

WinStar Farm LLC.  

14

Rule

Ramon Dominguez

Todd  Pletcher

WinStar Farm LLC.

WinStar Farm LLC.  

15

Paddy O’Prado

Kent Desormeaux

Dale Romans

Donegal Racing

Winchell Thoroughbreds

16

Line of David

Rafael Bejarano

John Sadler

Ike and Dawn Thrash

Sabine Stable

17

Dean’s Kitten

 Cornelio Velasquez

Michael Maker

Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey

18

Conveyance

 Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

Zabeel Racing International

Gulf Coast Farms

19

Stately Victor

Alan Garcia

Michael Maker

F. Thomas Conway and Jack Conway

Adena Springs

20

Homeboykris

Joel Rosario

Rick Dutrow

Lazzinnaro, Belger, Mandata, et al.

Dark Hollow Farm

 

What the Nation is saying about Lucky Wins the 2010 Kentucky Derby - A Vision...

Thanks for all the comments everyone. Glad my article has generated so much interest.
Lookin At Lucky is the 2yo champ and Baffert has won the Derby three times. Logical pick.
The Derby is always a challenge to predict as the fields are always full and anticipating the outcome is always fun. Baffert has been Lucky before so why not .
LUVZENYATTA: I did show 'Sidney' some love. I have him leading in the lane and beating 19 others. Besides, he already spanked 'Lucky at Santa Anita. It's my guy's turn, lol.
It's okay except for the part where my derby horse gets spanked into second:(
railbird33: I am not a DRF/BSF guy. I use BRIS and Today's Racing Digest. 'Lucky earned triple digit Bris Speed/Late Pace figs in Rebel win. His earned a strong Digest Final Time Rating for Rebel as well. Based on those numbers he is better on dirt.
Another interesting 'Lucky angle to consider. Note that both of his losses occurred at Santa Anita Park, so he's 5 for 5 away from the Great Race Place.
Hmmm, with only two 2010 starts and no three figure Beyers, he'll need a dry track, a good PP and a LOT of racing luck. I like him better in the Preakness (like Point Given & Curlin)
Hey, this scenario is just as possible as any other. Nice creative thinking! Jarrod, you are killing me with that back of the pack finish for Dean's Kitten. I would gladly offer a one on one match bet prop that Dean's Kitten finishes ahead of Sidney's Candy
Everything you need to know is out there. Derby post positions are horribly overrated. Trips often come down to sheer racing luck which is completely unattached to post position. It is not reasonable to let post position greatly influence your Derby pick. That said, I really don't love Lookin At Lucky. But, I have a feeling any anti-Lucky comments will quickly be reduced to an East Coast bias rant.
Humphrey, while your point is a good one, I think in this case 95% of the information is known. Sure, the race complexion could change with a sloppy track, a key horse in post 20, or maybe if Eightyfiveinafifty gets in... but for the most part, I think all the information is there. And there is so much speed in this race, I don't think the defection of any one horse could change the complexion of the race much.
A race is a separate interactive entity with specific pace interatctions and unitl it is SET and the track surface is known, pre-capping is a real waste of time.
Thanks for your always candid remarks humphrey. Actually, I have been handicapping this group since my first Derby Top 10 last November. I know this crew inside and out. Things can obviously change in the comings days but this was a fun early look at the Derby.
Some logic here but too often TOO much credit is given a colt overcoming trouble, but then Unbridled, Alysheba and Sea Hero all had less than stellar last preps. Ambitious of you to predict this without a head to head past performance evaluation as I never could understand how people handicap the horse and not the race....More later as this might not be a bad selection even thought this one ran on the synthocrap.
Great job Jarrod. Go Lucky!
He didn't do it yet. check back next week.
I am happy that he did that
Hey nanlvssundaysilence. Who do you like and why?
Interesting. That would be very cool if you are right!