Zipse’s
Kentucky Derby Daily – Day 2
Wasn’t it
William Shakespeare who said, “What’s in a post position? That which we run for
the roses by any other spot would smell as sweet.”
Regular
readers of mine know that I have landed on Nehro and Archarcharch as my top two
selections for the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Or have I?
Yesterday,
I watched in horror as those two fine colts, coming out of the strongest prep
of the year in the Arkansas Derby, landed dismal post positions. First Nehro
drew the 19. He’s so far out there that I might give him a good luck pat from
the grandstand rail before loading. Then, and worse yet, Archarcharch was given
the dreaded #1 position. One needs only to go back as far as last year to see
what that position of horrors can hold for a potential Derby winner.
Lookin at
Lucky, a two-time champion, and a horse with a similar running style as
Archarcharch, was pinched, pushed, pulled, and pinballed all in the first
quarter mile, on the way to a disappointing 6th place finish. Does a
similar fate await Archarcharch? Did he lose the Kentucky Derby at yesterday’s
post position draw?
My definitive
answer is, … Maybe.
Maybe,
horses outside him will drop farther back, and horses outside them will speed
to the lead, allowing for Jon Court to have some room down the stretch for the
first time. Maybe he will find a seam to get off the rail at some point, or an
opening to make his run from the inside. That’s the thing about the Kentucky
Derby, you just don’t know.
What we do
know is that 20 horses will barrel out of the starting gate with all the
emotion fitting of the grand race. 150,000 fans plus will roar, adding to the
fever pitch. What happens from there is the definition of racing luck.
As for
Nehro, I would rather be in the 19 hole than the 1, despite the fact that no
horse has ever won from that spot. Hopefully he can ease inward smoothly as he
drops to the final third of the field, so as not to lose too much ground. Again
racing luck will be paramount.
What does
all this mean to my selections? It means I have a little less confidence in the
two of them than I did yesterday morning. It means the horses I liked next best
moved a little bit up in my eyes. Mucho Macho Man and Midnight Interlude
received much more preferable spots in numbers 13 and 15 respectively. Yes, I
am taking a stand against the two favorites, Dialed In and Uncle Mo. Meanwhile
my best longshot, Animal Kingdom, also fared well yesterday with a #16 post
position.
I will play
all five, (Nehro, Archarcharch, Mucho Macho Man, Midnight Interlude, and Animal
Kingdom) now with less emphasis on the top two. Nehro remains my overall top
pick.
More than
anything, I wish all 20 horses a safe trip. May the best horse win!
