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Kentucky Derby Favorites Rarely Win?

Dialed In gets past Shackleford to take the Florida Derby

Who will be the public choice in the 2011 Kentucky Derby and how have favorites performed over the last 32 years?

 

A look at the chart below tells the story. Going back to 1979 only five favorites (Big Brown, Street Sense, Smarty Jones, Fusaichi Pegasus, Spectacular Bid) have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Three of those horses also captured the Preakness but none completed the Triple Crown sweep.


Although favorites haven't performed very well in the Derby over this 32-year sample, it is important to note that favorites have won 4 of the last 11 Derby runnings.  


The 137th Kentucky Derby looks wide open with Nick Zito’s late running colt Dialed In the likely choice over 2-year-old champ Uncle Mo. Based on recent history and with such an evenly matched group assembled it seems unwise to choose the favorite in this year’s renewal of the Derby. What do you think?   

    

YEAR
FAVORITE ODDS FINISH WINNER PRICE
2010
Lookin At Lucky 6.30-1 6th Super Saver 8.00-1
2009
Friesan Fire 3.80-1 18th Mine That Bird 50.60-1
2008
Big Brown 2.40-1 1st Big Brown 2.40-1
2007
Street Sense 4.90-1 1st Street Sense 4.90-1
2006
Sweetnorthernsaint 5.50-1 7th Barbaro 6.10-1
2005
Bellamy Road 2.60-1 7th Giacomo 50.30-1
2004
Smarty Jones 4.10-1 1st Smarty Jones 4.10-1
2003
Empire Maker 2.50-1 2nd Funny Cide 12.80-1
2002
Harlan's Holiday 6.00-1 7th War Emblem 20.50-1
2001
Point Given 1.80-1 5th Monarchos 10.50-1
2000
Fusaichi Pegasus 2.30-1 1st Fusaichi Pegasus 2.30-1
1999
Excellent Meeting 4.80-1 5th Charismatic 31.30-1
1998
Indian Charlie 2.70-1 3rd Real Quiet 8.40-1
1997
Captain Bodget 3.10-1 2nd Silver Charm 4.00-1
1996
Unbridled's Song 3.50-1 5th Grindstone 5.90-1
1995
Timber Country 3.40-1 3rd Thunder Gulch 24.50-1
1994
Holy Bull 2.20-1 12th Go For Gin 9.10-1
1993
Prairie Bayou 4.40-1 2nd Sea Hero 12.90-1
1992
Arazi 0.90-1 8th Lil E Tee 16.80-1
1991
Hansel 2.50-1 10th Strike The Gold 4.80-1
1990
Mister Frisky 1.90-1 8th Unbridled 10.80-1
1989
Easy Goer 0.80-1 2nd Sunday Silence 3.10-1
1988
Private Terms 3.40-1 9th Winning Colors 3.40-1
1987
Demons Begone 2.20-1 17th Alysheba 8.40-1
1986
Snow Chief 2.10-1 11th Ferdinand 17.70-1
1985
Chief's Crown 1.20-1 3rd Spend A Buck 4.10-1
1984
Life's Magic 2.80-1 8th Swale 3.40-1
1983
Marfa 2.40-1 5th Sunny's Halo 2.50-1
1982
Air Forbes Won 2-70-1 7th Gato Del Sol 21.20-1
1981
Proud Appeal 2.30-1 18th Pleasant Colony 3.50-1
1980
Rockhill Native 2.10-1 5th Genuine Risk 13.30-1
1979
Spectacular Bid 0.60-1 1st Spectacular Bid 0.60-1

 

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Older Comments about Kentucky Derby Favorites Rarely Win?...

Decisive Moment is my long shot as well...
My five favorite bets are Dailed In, Shackleford, In Honour and Serve, Nehro, and Mucho Macho Man Time
I beilieve Dialed In will be in the Money and have a shot to win. Also of note 3 of last 6 favorites won the derby
I think Dialed In will be up there at the end, but may not win. I'm sticking to the tried and true 1 1/8th ers.
When are they drawing the post positions?
WAAAAAHHHHH! What do you mean! Sweet Ducky will win the Derby....the derby for the horse that should be winning the Derby, that is.
No Jerri Boys at Tosconova will win the derby!
Uncle Moe can't go the distance. Will be in the top two until the last 16th and then slink down to 7-8th.
  • colmmoss1 · Thats probably the worst most uneducated statement I have heard...Uncle mo is bred to stay 1M 1/4 unlike 75% of the field...you obviously don't know your horses son! · 1204 days ago
To honor and serve will win the derby !!!!

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