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Kentucky Derby Favorite - Dialed In or Uncle Mo?

Uncle Mo cruises in the Timely Writer
Does 2-year-old champ Uncle Mo still deserve to be the favorite in the 2011 Kentucky Derby after losing the Wood Memorial? How about Florida Derby hero Dialed In?

Favorites have actually held their own in the Derby recently with three wins (Big Brown, Street Sense, Smarty Jones) in the last seven years and four in the last eleven if you go back to Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. During that timeframe the winning odds have ranged from 2-1 on Big Brown and FuPeg to more than 50-1 on Giacomo and Mine That Bird.

Before the year 2000 you had to go all the way back to 1979 to find a winning favorite (Spectacular Bid).

Uncle Mo did not just lose the Wood Memorial. He came out of that race with a GI tract infection and is scrambling to get fit enough for the first Saturday in May. There were doubts about his ability to get ten furlongs even if everything went perfect. He has only had two preps and missed some training time recovering from his recent ailment. Plus, his first start this year was around one turn so now there are serious questions about the Pletcher trainee uncorking a top effort in the Derby.

Dialed In rallied from far back to win the Florida Derby but a couple of his highly regarded rivals (Soldat, Stay Thirsty) never fired and pacesetter Shackleford crawled home. Nick Zito's lightly raced colt was visually impressive in his two wins around one turn but looked ordinary in both nine furlong starts in Florida. He works have been few and far between and Zito has been reluctant to ship him all year. The one run closer will need everything to go his way in a 20-horse field.

Do either of the aforementioned colts deserve to be favored in the Kentucky Derby? Does the seemingly wide open Derby actually have a favorite?

I do not like the chances of Dialed In and Uncle Mo at this stage but they both figure to take plenty of action.

Nehro could be the wise guy horse and might take more money than expected but he will be making his third start in six weeks under the Twin Spires. The Steve Asmussen trainee figures to have a hard time peaking in the Derby.

If you were the Derby odds maker what would your line look like?

   

 

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Older Comments about Kentucky Derby Favorite - Dialed In or Uncle Mo?...

dialed in is my favorite his bloodlines are great and he has won three out of the four races he has been in and they all have been on dirt, Nehro will get second and uncle mo third. but we will have to wait till Saturday to find for sure and on any given Saturday anything can happen
Archarcharch, Nehro, Uncle Mo...Mo is probably the favorite, but not the winner.
Dialed in 4-5? you mean 5-1
Q: If you were the Derby odds maker what would your line look like? A: 1. Pants On Fire (20-1) 2. Animal Kingdom (20-1) 3. Toby's Corner (15-1) 4. Nehro (6-1) 5. Master Of Hounds (30-1) 6. Soldat (12-1) 7. Shackleford (50-1) 8. Dance City (30-1) 9. Mucho Macho Man (12-1) 10. Dialed In (4-5) 11. Archarcharch (8-1) 12. Midnight Interlude (15-1) 13. Anthony's Cross (30-1) 14. Uncle Mo (6-1) 15. Decisive Moment (50-1) 16. Comma To The Top (30-1) 17. Watch Me Go (50-1) 18. Stay Thirsty (30-1)
Interesting about Nehro's dosage. I remember when that used to be ALL the rage...
I realize that 'Dosage Index' is no longer in vogue these days, but does anyone know that only one horse in the Derby field has a DI higher than 4.00? It's the Wise-Guy Derby horse himself... Nehro (4.33)
Nehro ¨the Hot¨- Dialed In is the exacta box for the derby
Nehro is the "hot" horse and will be bet down strongly. But he will not be favored.
Neither. Nehro will be favored.
These are different horses than in the JUV.... You have accomplished closers going a route.. Pace will never be moderate in a 20 horse race, not that the WOOD was a suicide pace either, and Mo folded...
Defections of most of the speed sets up well for Uncle Mo. He should be able to sit close to a moderate pace like he did in the Juvenile without burning too much energy too soon.
Johny V rated him in the BC juvenile. If he gets a decent post JV will probably just let him find a rythem just roll.
I don't think he's scrambling to get fit. Pletcher thought the horse was fit for the Wood, he had worked great and the Wood certainly has him fit. He got a ton out of that race, and I'm really happy Pletcher decided to work him 5 panels. He went really good. he's still my pick with mucho Macho Man.
Mo has wrong jockey to win the Derby.... JV will be laying to close as usual and come up empty.. They need to rate him to get 10 furlongs in a 20 horse race
I would still say Mo. Distance was a question for Smarty Jones and Big Brown because of their breeding and look at how they handled the Derby. You can't say BB, who was immensly talented but very lightly raced was a lock for the race. Mo is lightly raced this year, but is training well and when at his best is vastly superior to the rest.

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