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Kentucky Derby 2013: Going the Distance

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Kentucky Derby 2013 will feature a group of 20 horses that seemingly have great parity in terms of talent and ability. We haven’t seen a horse run an extraordinary speed figure and every horse in the race can have a few holes poked in his form. This means horse players will have to rely on other criteria for determining the winner of the Run for the Roses.
 
One of the most highly valued criteria for picking one of the Kentucky Derby contenders is pedigree, or the suitability of the bloodlines for a horse to go the distance of one and one quarter miles. The final furlong of the Kentucky Derby will separate the boys from the men. Countless horses have looked strong in the stretch of the Derby, only to wither as the wire approached.
 
Who can go the distance?
 
Palace Malice (Curlin x Palace Rumor by Royal Anthem): More than any other horse in the race, this Todd Pletcher pupil has the bloodlines to perform well at the 10 furlongs distance. He is from the first crop of Curlin, who won the Preakness Stakes, Breeders’ Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup. The latter two races are at the Derby Distance. The average winning distance of Curlin’s progeny is 7.1 furlongs. That will almost certainly rise past 8 furlongs as his sons and daughters grow up and are afforded more opportunities to go long. The broodmare sire, Royal Anthem, won prestigious turf route races such as the Juddmonte International, Canadian International and Breeders’ Cup Turf. Talent may be a question for Palace Malice, the Blue Grass Stakes runner-up, but ability to go the distance is not.
 


Charming Kitten (Kitten’s Joy x Iteration by Wild Again): Surface, more than ability to go the distance, is a question for this Ken Ramsey owned horse. This homebred, by Ramsey’s dual Grade 1 winning stallion Kitten’s Joy, will be finishing. Kitten’s Joy won at or beyond the Derby distance, albeit on turf, three times. Broodmare sire Wild Again won the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Classic at 10 furlongs. He has been a strong route influence at stud, producing top horses like Wild Rush, Offlee Wild, Milwaukee Brew, and most notably, Belmont Stakes winner Sarava. If Charming Kitten can handle the surface, he will surprise many with his closing kick on Derby Day at Churchill Downs.
 
Java’s War (War Pass x Java by Rainbow Quest): This is another horse that will nail the distance, but could have questions about his ability to handle the track. Sire War Pass was a phenomenal dirt horse as he won the Champagne Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before tailing off as a three-year-old. War Pass is by miler Cherokee Run who is by Travers winner and strong stamina influence Blushing Groom. The bottom half of the pedigree is loaded with stamina. Damsire Rainbow Quest won the world’s most prestigious turf race, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Rainbow Quest is responsible for such horses as Santa Anita Handicap winner Urgent Request. Look for Java’s War to finish with a flourish!
 
 
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Who will struggle to get the distance?
 
Mylute (Midnight Lute x Stage Stop by Valid Expectations): More than any other horse in the race, this one has questions to answer about his ability to go ten furlongs. He is by two-time Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Midnight Lute. We haven’t seen enough of the young stallion’s progeny to make an informed decision on their ability to stay, but the information that we do have says that they will be optimal at a mile or less. Broodmare sire, Valid Expectations, did his best running in sprint races and has produced horses that do their best work in, you guessed it, sprint races. The talent is there, and he is improving, but can he travel through that final furlong? We will find out on May 4.
 
Goldencents (Into Mischief x Golden Works by Banker’s Gold): Sprinters are all over the pedigree of this Santa Anita Derby winner. Sire Into Mischief was a Hollywood Futurity winner and finished second in the Malibu Stakes. Broodmare sire Banker’s Gold won the Grade 1 Carter Handicap and is best known for producing the sprinting stakes winner My List. Bold Ruckus is present in the third generation of Goldencents pedigree; that horse was a world record holder for five furlongs. Clearly, this is a very fast horse, but he will have to prove he can walk through the fire of that last furlong in the Run for the Roses.
 
Will Take Charge (Unbridled’s Song x Take Charge Lady by Dehere): This one appears to have what it takes in the blood, but not so fast; let’s take a closer look. Sire Unbridled’s Song produces all types, including those capable of the classic distance. However, he has also produced horses that can’t stand up after a mile. Broodmare sire Dehere was a champion juvenile and has a similar dynamic style in terms of the horses he has thrown, but the average winning distance of his progeny is only 6.8 furlongs. Throw in the fact that he hasn’t raced since March 16 and has never raced past 8 ½ furlongs and he becomes a tough horse to back.
 
 
~Written by Ryan Patterson 
 
 
 
 
Review the distance pedigrees of all 20 Kentucky Derby Starters in the 2013 Kentucky Derby Pedigree Report.
 
It's just one of the bonuses in the 2013 Kentucky Derby Super Screener package - designed for you to win big on the Derby!

 

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Older Comments about Kentucky Derby 2013: Going the Distance...

@mschneider. I hope you stuck with him. Never lose faith in a horse that you honestly believe has the potential- Even if they lose 6 of 7 races :).
rafirox - Really appreciate your comments and observations. Glad to hear you see scenarios where Palace Malice could win. I am totally onboard with your Mike Smith analysis and will not be surprised if Palace Malice is either in the lead or in the lead group in the final 1/8. My question is does he really want to win or does he want to hang with his buddies = stay with the herd. It seems like it could be a confidence issue due to immaturity as you have suggested many times.
Link #2, Sweet 16 made on 3/24: http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Rafiroxs_Pre_123.
Link #1, Sweet 16 made on 3/2: http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Rafiroxs_Pre_Gotham_Sweet_16_123
Hey, mschneider. Thank you for all your kind comments. Shades are always a tough situation. Many colts react to it in a positive way, but others don't. You really must know and be familiar with the colt before making an informed guess on how they will appreciate shades. I saw his work on KentuckyDerby.com with blinkers, and he ran even with Overanalyze, and had a strong gallop out. Again, I have been following this colt since 8/4/12, so I am somewhat notified of his attributes. I think blinkers will help him. Not only was his workout an indicator, but also his attributes shown in previous races. In his Maiden, Optional claiming, Risen Star, La. Derby and Blue Grass, he lugged his head a bit to the right consistently. It started evaporating, and almost completely after his Blue GRass, but the Blinkers might help in that regard. That, was another sign of greeness, which is also could be added to the fact he quite often has the desire to change leads in the stretch. Mike Smith is an interesting choice. I don't think Mike himself will eliminate greeness, only Palace Maliice himself can. Mike Smith can help a tad with his veteran hands, his finesse, and his ability to communicate with his animal, but ultimately it is how Palace Malice matured these past weeks. Maybe if Todd Pletcher has attempted to fix some of these issues in the morning, than he might be more polished. Mike Smith is a somewhat solid rider on the inside, he can weave horses, and he is a fantastic off-the-pace jockey. Take the iconic figures (Lady of Shamrock, Giacomo, Zenyatta, etc) into account. If you are an everyday fan, you will notice distinct attributes of Mike Smith in which he shows often on closers. He has the perfect running style (Sustained Press with a late distribution) to get it done. If Mike Smith can sit him 4-6 lengths off, avoid traffic, he might ust be able to give a run. As for posts, I would like somewhere in the middle, maybe 7-10. He is not the fastest of breakers, so I don't want him too inside. I don't want him outside, as I'm iffy on his ability to stalk the pace on the outside. If it happens to be sloppy, he is well worth a wager. His sire, Curlin, was excellent on the slop. He has many turf influences, which might be an indicator that he has a good slop run in him. This horse very well might hit the board, but if the conditions fit, he might just be a win candidate.. I'll post some links so you could see what I thought of him on 3/2 and 3/24.
raforox, no sarcasim at all/intended. I have read many of your posts over the past couple of months and appreciate your comments and observations. And I appreciate your detailed reply in this case. You are on the mark with Orb - he appears to be the one to beat in this race. Do you think blinkers will help Palace Malice? Do you think Mike Smith will help Palace Malice (e.g. better chance for a clean ride, help with some of his greeness, etc.)? Thanks.
@mschneider. I can't tell if you are sarcastic? I rarely get those compliments, so thanks! My analysis. I will post links for you of my Sweet 16 on 3/2 and Sweet 16 on 3/24. You'll see how I thought about him then. Now, this colt is very, very talented. On top of that, he is very green and immature. In the Risen Star Stakes, he lugged his head to the right and drifted. He failed to switch leads on first asking. The fact he came in 3rd place, beaten only length or so, made me cattipult this colt to the top of my list. Not only did he get caught behind a wall of horses, but he kept trying and he actually beat Oxbow and was game vs. Code West (reminder: this was his 4th career start)... In the La. Derby, I believe he would have won the race going away. I recommend you to rewatch that race. As the camera angles out, you see a colt gaining ground unurged on the inside. At the top of the stretch, he was blocked by a series of horses, he got boxed, etc. He had nowhere to run. The way he was easily making up ground showed me he was the best horse in the field. In the Blue Grass, he came off short rest. He found a hole, got the lead, but switched leads two times in the stretch. I believe the track was a bit to deep for him, he was tired, and still immature. He's not my pick to win the Derby. Why? Well, he seems to have a slight tendency to encounter trouble, he is still very green, and he perhaps not mature enough to get the ten furlongs faster than others. I find him to be the best colt in this crop (yes, I just said that), but he iisn't suited, as of now, for the Derby. Keep in mind, he is a May foal. I worry this is all a little bit too much too soon. I like his 6 race conditioning, but I'm iffy on how his attributes (green, traffic prone, and breaking a bit slow) will fare in the Derby. Based on his talent, I reccommed using him in exotics, but he's not my win pick. I might place a tiny wager, but I find the winner to be Orb. @Puddles. You're completely wrong about everyone liking him only for Curlin. Curlin is the least reason why he has been #1 on my list on 3/2 and 3/24. The reason? He is a green colt with tons of room for improvement. He is a monster, G1 colt, who will win 6-8 G1's in his career, barring injury. With that said, your comment about Curlin was uninformed. There is plenty of reason to like this one, not because of Curlin. @Dressage. I like your post.
Puddles- I too doubt PM can get 10f against this type of company- for NOW. The horse still runs very green and has room for improvement. You're wrong about people only liking him for Curlin and need to recheck your assessment. Curlin is what made me shy AWAY from him at first because Curlin was slow to mature and untested as a sire. What won me over was his excellent maiden win and his dam's side of the pedigree.
rafirox - what are your thoughts on Palace Malice? Your analysis is thorough and would appreciate your comments. Thanks.
i doubt PM goes 10f, JW is a not a Dirt horse neither is Charming Kitten........MyLute isn't good enough, Goldencents could go the distnace with high 47s and high 1:11's (though I also have doubts), and Will Take Charge isn't good enough. Of those 6 only Goldencents can I see winning but I highly doubt that with all the talented closers this year. I don't expect any of these to hit the superfecta but Goldy has a shot for 4th. So many people like PM this year because of one thing and one thing only -- Curlin. Thats good for me as my odds on my horses will continue to rise. good luck all
i agree with icyhotboo that Java War has pretty good chance in the derby, if Leparoux can manage to get this horse in first 10 horse bunch group, he has the a shot, i am already put Java war in my selection of first seven horse, i will make my final decision after the announcement of Post Position in 1st of may. Orb is my first selection.
assesment are quite moderate, i agree that Mylute , Goldencents, even Normandy Invasion have'nt got the distance to stay, even i am very doubtful about Verrazano to stay the distance, he may have speed and it does'nt mean that he is a stayer, his pedigree is not so favulas as people might think, those horse can stay the distance are ORB, PALACE MALICE, CHARMING KITTEN,OXBOW , OVER ANALYZE and LINES OF BATTELE, but the problem of Lines of Battle is coming from overseas not to know the churchill ground, a big problem??
LoB is coming Wednesday>>@buds, you’re cutting it a little fine if you leave Revolutionary off your list>>from fine family and can run.
Disagree with the analysis. Mylute's pedigree suggests he can handle the distance quite well with influences such as Alydar, Strike the Gold, etc. Goldencents is borderline for me with Nijinsky and Bold Ruler in there. Will Take Charge should handle be capable of handling it with Secretariat, Bold Ruler, Damascus, Swaps, etc in his pedigree.
Disagree with the analysis. Mylute's pedigree suggests he can handle the distance quite well with influences such as Alydar, Strike the Gold, etc. Goldencents is borderline for me with Nijinsky and Bold Ruler in there. Will Take Charge should handle be capable of handling it with Secretariat, Bold Ruler, Damascus, Swaps, etc in his pedigree.
Three horses have superior pedigree to the rest; Orb, Verrazano, and Palace Malice. Two of these horses Orb and Verrazano also possess speed, form and class. Of those two Orb may have a little better pace figures as far as the Derby’s concerned. So you don’t have to look beyond these two for the winner. Unless they have the 1 or 20 post, all should be good for a duel between these 2. Revolutionary and Oxbow also have the pedigree to go the distance, but might need a little help to find the winners circle.Three horses have superior pedigree to the rest; Orb, Verrazano, and Palace Malice. Two of these horses Orb and Verrazano also possess speed, form and class. Of those two Orb may have a little better pace figures as far as the Derby’s concerned. So you don’t have to look beyond these two for the winner. Unless they have the 1 or 20 post, all should be good for a duel between these 2. Revolutionary and Oxbow also have the pedigree to go the distance, but might need a little help to find the winners circle.
Lines of Battle has the best pedigree to get the distance. Why is Obrien waiting so long to get him to CD?
  • patrick.l.mccaslin · Who knows but word is he will arrive on May 1st so I will pitch him totally. A horse coming fro that far away needs about 2 weeks total to ajust from the long plane trip. I would be suprised if this horse finished ant higher than 8th! · 858 days ago
Probably because the juveniles melted away
afleet, I agree completely with your comment. Lines of Battle has one of the best pedigrees and dosage out of them all and nobody even mentions him. Could be a good thing. Hopefully he will train at churchill soon.
Not much excitement about this year race. No horse really stands out.

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