JUVENILE JINX PLAYS A PART IN PICKING A
DERBY WINNER
By
Danny Brewer
The age-old question
that burns brightly in the minds of many is quite simple in nature. For 139
years, people far and wide have often been perplexed by the same preponderance.
“Who is going to win the Kentucky Derby?”
When horseracing
fans try to look for that ever-elusive answer, what is the best direction to
head? Past perfomances and bloodlines are two of the more popular indicators.
But if it is early in the Derby prep season, can the runnings of a two-year old
always tell us what is going to happen once the racer begins his three-year old
season?
The so-called
“juvenile jinx” has been alive and well for many years. Horses that have a
great two-year old season capped off by a victory in the Breederrs’ Cup
Juvenile race are usually nowhere to be found when the prance to the winner’s
circle takes place on the first Saturday in May. In fact, since the beginning
of the Breeders’ Cup in 1986, only Street Sense in 2007 won both races. But the
jinx is not just for the winner of the previous year’s Cup race. Many other
very promising two-year olds have fallen flat when the calendar turns and the
Triple Crown races beckon.
With that in mind,
when looking for the answer to finding the answer, one has to wonder how a good
two-year old becomes a great three-year old?
“The key to the
transformation is how the horse matures physically and mentally,” says Carl
Nafzger, trainer of Street Sense. “Just like kids, horses mature at different
times. How many kids do you know that are bigger at earlier ages and then there
are some kids that don’t mature until later in life. These horses are the same
as any other young athlete. They can all
develop differently at different stages of life. Some horses get better in
their three year old year while others may stay the same or even regress.“
The maturing of
these athletes can often times be quite perplexing for horse trainers. Since Street Sense put on his miraculous
repeat performances in his two and three year old seasons between 2006 and 2007
some highly acclaimed two-year olds have fallen short at three. Midshipmen,
Looking at Lucky, Uncle Mo, and Hansen all failed to win the roses. Looking at
Lucky did take the Preakness Stakes, but the others fell victim for different
reasons and were not the shining stars at three that they were as a juvenile.
Carl Nafzger has
long been known for his abilities as a horse trainer. Famous for his one-liners
as well as his ability to train a horse up for a big race, Carl will quickly
admit there was no special formula in preparing Street Sense for the transition
from two to three. After taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by a record 10
lengths at two, Street Sense won the Tampa Bay Derby, Kentucky Derby, Jim Dandy
Stakes, and Travers Stakes as a three-year old.
“I just happened to
be blessed with an exceptionally talented horse,” says Nafzger. “I didn’t
really do anything differently other than we let him mature from November of
his two-year old year to March of his three-year old season without much work.
We let him grow and he went from being a talented horse to being an even more
talented horse. I have always said, I have never trained a horse, the horse has
always trained me. Street Sense told me
what he wanted to do and I just followed along.”
Street Sense did
indeed lead Nafzger to the winner’s circle. In doing so he became the first
two-year old champion to win the Kentucky Derby since Spectacular Bid did so
back in 1979. However, two year-old champs have not always struggled. “The Bid”
capped off a fantastic decade for horseracing in the 1970’s. He was one of six two-year
old champions (Riva Ridge, Secretariat, Foolish Pleasure, Seattle Slew,
Affirmed) to win the Kentucky Derby the following year. Considering the gap
between juvenile champions and Derby champions in recent years, one has to
wonder if things have changed in 21st century horse racing.
“I really don’t
think anything has changed much,” says Nafzger, who also won the Kentucky Derby
in 1990 (Unbridled). “It is still the same today that nobody can take a horse
to the Kentucky Derby, the horse has to take them. Trainers know what their
horse can do because that is their job. Putting the horse in the right spot is
the trainer’s job, but if the horse does not come through, there is not much
you can do. You just try and take care of your horse and try and help them
utilize their abilities in the most effective manner.”
Last year’s two-year
old champion, Shanghai Bobby, has already reached a bump in the road to the
Kentucky Derby. Undefeated as a juvenile, Bobby was shanghaied in his first
start at three as he finished a tiring second to Itsmyluckyday in the Holy Bull
in January. Does that mean he will be another talented two-year old that fails
to reach everyone’s expectations?
Of course hype and
hope are all part of the road to the Kentucky Derby in many ways. People in all
walks of horseracing’s life dream of glory on the first Saturday in May and
that is just one of the things that makes for the greatest two minutes in
sports.
“If we all knew what
the formula was this would not be the sport it is,” says Nafzger. “Sometimes
people get in the way with expectations and Mother Nature has something else to
say about how things come out. You simply can’t predict how a horse is going to
mature. As a trainer you just try and take care of him and hope he takes you
where you want to go.”