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Jockey Stats - Who's Hot & Who's Not at Saratoga

Joel Rosario 615 X 400
Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

 

The first week has went to the wayside at Saratoga Race Course, and the jockey standings have started to take place.  Joel Rosario is first out of the gate, and he has opened a 3-win lead.  These standings are not complete, but compose the majority of the jockey colony currently at Saratoga.  Here are the standings: 

NO

1

2

3

W%

BR PT PCT

TRACK VARIANCE

ROSARIO

85

16

16

13

18.8%

22.8%

6.751

CASTELLANO

81

13

13

13

16.0%

24.9%

4.683

VELAZQUEZ

59

9

7

9

15.3%

26.0%

3.274

VELASQUEZ

47

6

3

6

12.8%

12.2%

1.781

LEZCANO J

62

6

4

9

9.7%

16.9%

2.589

NAPRAVNIK

57

5

10

7

8.8%

17.7%

2.368

SAEZ L

61

5

6

5

8.2%

13.7%

2.988

SOLIS

21

4

2

1

19.0%

10.1%

9.182

ESPINOZA

27

4

1

3

14.8%

6.9%

4.522

ALVARADO

36

4

2

3

11.1%

34.3%

0.982

ORTIZ J

47

4

5

3

8.5%

17.2%

2.033

MARAGH

49

4

4

8

8.2%

22.9%

2.540

ORTIZ I

57

3

8

6

7.0%

7.8%

6.014

PRADO

22

2

6

3

9.1%

11.1%

1.655

ALBARADO

27

2

4

3

7.4%

20.6%

4.361

GARCIA A

12

1

1

1

8.3%

6.5%

3.499

BRIDGMOHAN

15

1

2

1

6.7%

12.2%

5.789

 

For a better understanding of the terminologies, and the purpose for these headings.  W% is self-explanatory.  It will be the wins divided by number of races.  There sometimes would be a difference between the W% as you know it, and what it actually is.  If the jockey is part of an entry, and the other half of the entry wins, the jockey will get credit for the win in the W%, but it won’t be reflected in number of wins.  The Break Point Pct. Is the average payoff translated into a comparable percentage to the W%.  If the W% is greater than the Break Point Pct., the jockey would realize a profit.  Lastly, Track Variance is utilized to evaluate a jockey based on the size of the fields he/she wins in(i.e. extreme example: if two jocks are at 20%, they are initially regarded as equal.  But, if one jockey won in a two-horse race, and the other won in a 20-horse race, their numbers would be 50.000 and 95.000 after that race).  Track Variance is a good gauge for determining the success of the jockey.

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

Though there are not many numbers that can be crunched so far, we’ll take a stab at seeing if any trends are developing.  For the most part, these numbers are based on what the jockey has accomplished, with no regard to the horse(s) he/she is riding.  If you’re in a situation where you’re playing multiple horse exotics, you might regard one of these jockey trends.  Criteria for making the grade:  At least 3 wins, five 1st or 2nd’s, Six 1st 2nd, or 3rd’s.  For the bad side, at least 18 races, with no wins.

 

HOT

Joel Rosario – He has been a tear on the Inner Turf course.  So far he’s had 21 mounts, with 6 wins, 4 seconds, and 4 thirds.  If you were to have bet him across the board every time he was on the Inner Turf course, you would be realizing a profit.  In all turf races, he is 25-for-43 in the money.  If you bet him to Show every time, you’d be in the plus column.  In all races, you’d realize a profit for Place and Show wagers in Post Position #1(12-2-4-2).

Javier Castellano – Post Positions 3 and 4 have produced 6 wins in 19 races, realizing a profit.  Also, PP 4 has been worthwhile for a Place wager.

John Velazquez – Has been profitable for a Show bet, when racing in a sprint race(6 furlongs, or less, on dirt) 6-for-10.

Jose Lezcano – Has realized a profit when breaking from PP 3(4-for-11).

Rosie Napravnik –When she is in a sprint race(6 furlongs or less) on dirt, she has realized a profit across the board.  12-4-1-3.

Luis Saez – When breaking from PP 2, he is profitable as a Place bet(5-for-9).

NOT

Javier Castellano -  On all turf races, from Post Position 6 on out, he is 0-for-18 to date.  Overall, Post Position 7 on out, he’s 0-for-22.

Jose Lezcano – Has yet to win a race below a Mile(0-for-22) on dirt.  From PP 4 thru 7, he’s 0-for-25.

Rosie Napravnik – She is 0-for-23 from PP’s 1 thru 7 on turf. 

Luis Saez – Is 0-for-25 in races shorter than a Mile on dirt.  On turf, PP’s 1 thru 8, is 0-for-19.

 

~Written by Brian Bradley, aka Cause for Concern 

 

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Older Comments about Jockey Stats - Who's Hot & Who's Not at Saratoga...

I thought I'd let all who want to know, that a weekly update will take place on their next off day, Tuesday, 8/6. Included will be the turf standings, and Who's Hot will be updated. Though there are only a handful of "off" races so far, I thought I'd mention that Robby Albarado will make the grade with one more in-the-money finish, but, so far he has a record of 6-2-1-2, bringing in a 41-1 longshot yesterday for a 2nd place finish. If the track comes up as being "off", keep him in mind. Good luck.
Thanks for the tip (about the glitches), CauseForConcern.
Congrats, Rafi. I'm glad my numbers could provide a service for you, in the positive. Always remember, it's not an absolute. It just provides you with better-than-average info. As for your problem, I also have the problem you describe. Instead of clicking on expanding the comments, if you go directly into opening the post, you will see all comments. That's the way I've worked around the inconvenience.
Rafi still having the problem off and on. What HRN needs is a really good computer programer. Is Travel Vic in the house?
Okay. First of all, @Brian or anyone, I'm still having the problem. I can not see any of the comments, besides the final two. So, I am responding to the article not the comments. @Brian (CFC), terrific article with useful data. I used some of your tips at Saratoga. I went 2 for 2, with a profit of over $800. I bet Rosario's entrant on a turf race, and that's what really put me over. He was like 5-1 or so. Thanks so much, I think you deserve part of my earnings ;). Seeing it said "24 comments" (before clicking), I assume travel_vic wrote some lectures, for sure, about how jockeys don't matter, haha. Way to go with the terrific analysis. Please write a Part 2 later in the meet, or maybe write some of these jockey articles for various meets. Since I'm your friend (hopefully...) perhaps you would take my request and write the anaylsis for tracks that I suck at: Keeneland (poly), Del Mar (poly), Saratoga (dirt and turf, you already did), and perhaps Aqueduct (dirt and turf). Thanks in advance.
"The best jockeys get the best horses".
What I meant was that maybe the jockeys have been winning on the best horse, for that type of race. Maybe the best jockeys get the mounts on the best horses. I know you did a ton of research and I certainly could not make a living, not in the least, by wagering, so best of luck to you, and I'm not one to say studying these stats won't help others.
Ha!!!, Laz. You know, you're right. Silly me. @ Mary: I've been doing this for a long time. These numbers aren't dealing with absolutes, and the only way I knew to compare, was to have the W% vs. the Break Point Pct. This would take into account the popularity of the jockey. To remove any coincidences, if a jockey won once, attribute it to luck. Twice, mere coincidence. Three times, is the charm. When I look at a jockey's numbers, they have to have at least three wins, five first or seconds, and/or six first, second, and thirds. They have to be greater than 5 points on the W% vs. Br. Pt. Pct, and, re: wins, the Track Variance must be at least 14. As for absolutes, today marked an absolute(don't ask me how, or why), but Rajiv Maragh won the 5th race, which was a sprint race(6 furlongs or less). This was his 3rd win in as many tries from that PP# 7. Pretty amazing, but, I'm sure it will soon change. Just when is the question.
This is great stuff, Brian. I find it very interesting how the jockey stats are kept for coupled entries.
It's funny how someone can make an informed and intelligent statement. Then the blog wreckers show up.
Read a study of over 30,000 races and the influence of a rider change was? NO DIFFERENCE with a Pool Impact Value of ONE.
We have never measured a placing based upon anything than the horse and you will find that the case at every race track ON EARTH
No. This jockey stats info is interesting, but I do wonder what types of mounts they had, quality-wise, and for me, it would be hard to keep track of all all of this info at the point of attempting to wager. I haven't ever written a blog, though, so I will say that I'm sure the fats are correct, just saying I don't know that I'd use them. Maybe they will coincidentally help someone.
The rider's nose was not on the line in the official placing judges opinion now was it??
CFC, shame, Rosario didn't win the 3rd. His horse did.
QUESTION for the group: Would you bet on a HORSE on the basis of how a rider did on all of his mounts??? Wow what a disconnect.
Hopefully, someone may have been influenced by the numbers. Rosario won the 3rd race over the Inner Turf, paying $11.40.
Once=Only
Imagine in insurance stats were based upon small samples: CHAOS
Red Alert! Once Travel Vic can publish true statistic data, the rest of us just live in a fantasy world! How dare do you publish incorrect statistic CFC? Don't you know that you need to consult with the master of the universe to verify that your stats meet his requirement and a stamp of seal to validate originality? ^_-

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