medlocke - In a 20-horse field you are always going to get inflated odds. I think Rule deserves to be more than 30-1. He has not looked good finishing his pre-Derby works and continues to look like a speed horse with distance limitations. If Rule was a legit Grade 1 horse he would have won the 9f Florida Derby against numerous entry level Allowance foes. In contrast, Sidney's Candy rated kindly and powered home in his synthetic starts. I can definitely see 'Sidney sitting the garden spot trip behind Conveyance, Line of David, and Rule, Here is the DRF report from Rule's latest Derby work: Although Rule's final time was a tick faster than workmate Mission Impazible, his performance paled in comparison. Despite being given a target to run at and making up about a length at the finish, Rule struggled to keep pace while noticeably asked both at the quarter pole and through the stretch. He then shut down rather quickly once passing the wire, fading far behind his partner during the gallop out for the second week in a row.
It really baffle's me that a horse as talented as Rule is has odds of 30-1? When horses like Awesome Act and Dublin are being made 10 and 12-1. Rule is much better than a 30-1 horse. But I'll sure be happy to get that, as I plan to bet him across the board on one of my Derby tickets. His odds have gone so long because he finished 3rd in the Florida Derby. For 95% of that race, Rule was much the best horse in the race. Velazquez has even stated that if he hadn't allowed Rule to get into that early speed dual with Pulsion, that Rule could have won the Florida Derby. Ice Box and Pleasant Prince still only caught him in deep stretch with the wire looming. If Velazquez allows Rule to settle right off of the pace, which I think will come from Sidney's Candy. Get's him to relax and settle well, when he hit's that long stretch at Churchill Downs, I really expect Rule to be right there with a chance to win the roses. I'm not sure if he can win the race or not? But I really do think he's good enough to hit the board in the Derby. TJMO.