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Goldencents will not win the Kentucky Derby

Don’t I ever learn? Has watching racing for the past forty years taught me nothing? Shouldn’t it be clear by now that in racing, anything can happen?
 
I’ll leave all those probing personal questions to be overanalyzed at some future time. For now, I will just tell you that Goldencents will not win the Kentucky Derby.
 
As one of the race favorites, there will be millions of fans who would disagree with the above statement, but I say, playing him in the top spot on the first Saturday in May is wasted money.
 
Sure, he has a solid record with four wins and a place in six lifetime starts. Yes, he has been running against graded stakes company since romping home in his career debut. It’s also true that his Santa Anita Derby was one of the fastest of all the Derby preps. And finally, yes, his trainer, Doug O’Neill just won this thing last year. Clearly, Goldencents is a nice horse in capable hands. So knowing all of this, how can I be so blatantly confident in my assertion that he will not win the Kentucky Derby? Here are five reasons…
 
1) Pedigree – While a successful first-crop sire to be sure, Into Mischief did his best running at the distance of seven furlongs, and it would be no surprise if his offspring struggled at extended distances. Unfortunately, Goldencents gets little help stamina wise from his female side, as broodmare sire, Banker’s Gold was also best in races at one-turn. Say what you will of the importance of pedigree, but when these horses turn for home and feel the burn of the longest and most physically taxing race of their young lives, I want a horse with stamina influence somewhere … anywhere in his pedigree.
 
2) Running Style – As one of the horses I most expect to be on the early lead, Goldencents would be trying to buck a serious trend by going wire-to-wire in the Derby. Only War Emblem has wired the field in the last 24 runnings. Taking that one step farther, War Emblem and Go for Gin are the only two winners to have been first or second, after any of the first quarter, half, or three-quarters of a mile markers in the last two dozen editions of the Kentucky Derby.
 
3) Toughness – Yes, Goldencents has a fine record, but in the two races where he was really pressured, the Champagne and the San Felipe, he seemed to pack up his tent a little too easily. He was well beaten by Shanghai Bobby in the former and finishing fourth in the latter. This certainly does not bode well for the stiff challenges that await him in Louisville. Only in the Santa Anita Derby did he show the ability to fight off a serious challenge, but keep in mind, Flashback exited the race injured.
 
4) The eyeball test – For all those banking their faith on Goldencents due to his Santa Anita Derby victory, I really did not like the look of his stride in the last 100 yards. He looked like a horse surviving the distance, rather than a horse thriving at it. The same can be said for his aforementioned losses in the Champagne and the San Felipe.
 
5) Santa Anita Speedway – I really can’t say that any of the three-year-olds from California will measure up this year, but what I can say for sure is that frontrunners like Goldencents had a big advantage because of the nature of the track at Santa Anita. Winning on the early pace at that track, that so favors speed, is significantly easier than doing it at Churchill Downs … not to mention all the company he is likely to have at Louisville over every demanding furlong.
 

 

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Older Comments about Goldencents will not win the Kentucky Derby...

GC will take control at the top of the stretch then see if he can hold off the rest. I don't see him worse than second unless he gets a bit of bad luck.
Doesn't seem like this West Coast horse is getting much respect. Reminds me a little of last year when I recall only two handicapppers (Brad Free and Jon White) picking I'll Have Another and proved many bettors wrong.
Goldencents' performances suggest he might be a slightly poorerman's Big Brown which I'm fine with.
Goldencents' performances suggest he might be a slightly poorerman's Big Brown which I'm fine with.
I want to emphasize this is just an opinion. Just like my belief that the KD is the hardest of all the graded stakes to handicap because of the added distance. I have a $50.00 limit that so far I've never gone over (except when I add my $22.00 in lucky #s bets)
Brian, I disagree strongly with your statement, as I thought he was gearing down and running smooth."For all those banking their faith on Goldencents due to his Santa Anita Derby victory, I really did not like the look of his stride in the last 100 yards. He looked like a horse surviving the distance, rather than a horse thriving at it" Look at Spectacular Bid's record breaking mile, his stride was shortening too. That's to be expected from a horse running a strong race. JMO
(Aviator) Oh CFC! I admire your skills.
@ Aviator: Smokey Robinson and the Miracles: "I second that EMOTION". Rolling Stones, "EMOTIONAL Rescue".
Got you beat by 21 years, however; what you spoke is a fact of life.
If this one gets an easy lead on par with a Hard Spun or Lion Heart, he might just have enough with this bunch.
I think GC wins by 3 easliy
To eliminate innate prejudices FOR and AGAINST horses, it is best to simply handicap their entire past performance WITHOUT looking at the name...OBJECTIVITY takes over and one makes better decisions.
Only two groups ever won on Emotion: 1. Bee Gees - "...in the words of a broken heart it's Just EMOTIONS, that's taken me over. 2. Billy Squier - "EMOTIONS in MOTION." Wagering with EMOTIONS usually ends-up "caught-up in sorrow...lost in your soul."
I think he will WIN , and if not he will be in the TRI,SUPER Santa Anita rules.
ANYONE who has the slightest long range success at this game understands a single fact: EMOTION is something you put in your back pocket the entire time you are wagering...I fit comes out, it festers and clouds your judgement.
National Championship and KyDerby win in the same year? Seems too crazy or too difficult? Based on that, along with some others, I agree. I think an East Coast horse will win this year
i am not fan of Goldencents, but one can not say that he can not win the derby because of pedigree does not indicate any good stamina sire or styer, i completely disagree, in his blood there is a sire who ran upto 1-1/4 miles and placed 2nd in 1988 derby behind Alyseba, he might not win the derby but in this year most of the derby prep's timing were beyond 1.50.27, only Goldencents had 1-48.26, 2 second difference, and i think it is too much, 2 seconds mean 10-12 lengths advantage, on the contrary Into Mischief might be a 7 furlonger, but he was very strong and stamina minded horse, trained by Mandella, last year in the derby those horse came within 6th placing order had a timings in 1-1/8 miles below 1-50 sec, those horse had over 1-50 second timing in the derby prepssis not success, timing plays a great role same as pedigree, workout, trainer and jockey, Goldencents might not be a super horse but he beat a very good horse Flashback in S.A. Derby, i will give Goldencents credit for that, he survive 2 turns in S.A. Derby, so there is no reason why he will not survive 1-1/4 miles? i will not ignore his timing in S.A.Derby?
Been hndicapping 50 + years and consider myself one of the best Golden Cents reads as a miler mile and a sixteenth with quit O'Neil is doing his best to get a few more yards out of him he will tire in the derby
Goldencents is my number one right now, but I can see why you couldn't like him. He has everything going for him, the only thing the would worry me is pedigree. SA Derby, he was just slowed. Krigger knew he had it in the bag! Even then, horses have proved time and time again that they can outrun their pedigree. Sometimes it is just all in the horse. How could you say he throws in the towel? The horse was tired the only time he finished off the board (to many fast, long works) and he ALWAYS tries his hardest and in the end, pedigree doesn't win races. Horses do. Horses with the mindset of a champion, and the heart to prove it. This one has that.

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