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Flat Out - A Breeders' Cup Classic Darkhorse

As Breeders’ Cup prep races grow closer at places like Santa Anita, Keeneland and Belmont Park, most gamblers will focus on those races’ outcome when forming their bets on Breeders’ Cup day.  Many of those same fans already have a small list of contenders in the backs of their minds for each divisional race.  Twirling Candy, Uncle Mo, Stay Thirsty, Tizway, Havre de Grace and Shackleford lead the list of contenders for the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic, but there is one name that has seemed to sneak under the radar: Flat Out.
 
Flat Out has been a model of consistency this year finishing 2nd in 3 graded stakes (Lone Star Park, Whitney and Woodward Handicaps) and capturing the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap at Belmont Park on July 2nd while earning the highest Beyer speed figure (113) of the year at over 1 mile.  In fact, Flat Out has run 3 of the fastest 9 Beyers over a mile this season.  People may want to criticize Flat Out’s last couple of races as he lost to a few contenders named earlier.  Flat Out’s last 2 races (Whitney and Woodward Stakes) were winning efforts that fell short to Tizway and Havre de Grace at Saratoga Race Course. Flat Out is a runner that likes to sit off the early pace and make his move late, but this summer at Saratoga it was virtually impossible to make up any significant ground in the stretch of any race, let alone trying to run down multiple-Grade 1 winners going 9 furlongs.
 
[Should Flat out be rated higher than his current #40 position on HRN's Power Rankings of Active Horses?]
 
Twirling Candy, Uncle Mo and Tizway are all horses that figure to take significant action in the  Breeders’ Cup Classic, but none of them have won at the Classic distance of 1 ¼ miles.  Twirling Candy unsuccessfully tried the 10-furlong distance 3 times this year.  Uncle Mo, returning from a 4-month illness, got run down going 7 furlongs last out in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop Stakes at Saratoga.  Also, back in April while preparing for the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo was run down going 1 1/8 miles.   Tiznow and Shackleford are one-dimensional front runners whose optimal racing distance is 1 1/8 miles.  Plus, they all figure to press the pace further hampering their chance at victory.  Havre de Grace is a filly who has a legitimate chance to win the Classic over her male counterparts, but will have to bring an optimal effort as her speed figures tend to fluctuate more than other competitors.  Flat Out has never run, let alone win at a mile and a quarter, but with his come from behind running style, combined with the projected quick early pace and long stretch at Churchill Downs, Flat Out’s chances will be enhanced.  Many future books have Flat Out listed around 16-1, making him a tempting play in a race which many top contenders have flaws in their resumes.

 

 

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Older Comments about Flat Out - A Breeders' Cup Classic Darkhorse...

Hey Cause, I'm actually from Kansas City, but I go up to Omaha periodically for handicapping tournaments & big racing days. I'll have to check out Farmer Brown's, thanks for the tip.
Nice article, Jasen. I noticed you're from the Omaha area. If you ever get a chance, check out Farmer Brown's. That's my kinfolks place. Tell them I sent you. Maybe you'll get a free meal(ha!!!!). Icy, if I ever read somebody with disdain for a horse, you fit the bill. When the BC is done, you will sulk with all your losings on Stay Thirsty. But, you give good credence to the saying, "The answer my friend, is blowing in the wind". And, he huffed, and he puffed, but didn't blow down a damn thing.
Who is the best then?
Got that right icy. Best horse is the one you cash in on. Good call.
btw: value is when you win!
He's running for 2nd best at best!!! what an overratted horse.
Totally agree... but with Tizway not going in the JCGC, pricing on Flat Out figures to drop both on Saturday and in the BCC if he runs well. Like him.
Definitely one to look at with possible nice odds.
He's definitely in my top 5 for the Classic ... a strong pace certainly wouldn't hurt.

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