Ticker
  • Gold Rush Dancer (14-1) pulls the upset in Del Mar's Real Good Deal Stakes.Posted 21 hours ago
  • Haveyougoneaway (7-2) wears down Paulassilverlining to win the Honorable Miss at Saratoga.Posted 1 day ago
  • Exaggerator is going in the Haskell, according to Steve Edelson of the Asbury Park Press.Posted 1 day ago
  • The Gurkha wins a Sussex thriller over Galileo Gold and Ribchester.Posted 1 day ago
  • Amis Gizmo romps home in the Prince of Wales at Fort Erie.Posted 1 day ago
  • Long On Value (7-2) cuts back and rolls in the Lucky Coin Stakes.Posted 3 days ago
  • Songbird repels the challenge of Carina Mia, and romps home in the CCA Oaks.Posted 3 days ago
  • Up With the Birds swings to victory in Woodbine's Nijinsky Stakes.Posted 4 days ago
  • Tin Type Gal rides the rail to victory in Monmouth's Boiling Springs.Posted 4 days ago
  • California Chrome edges Dortmund in a San Diego Handicap showdown.Posted 4 days ago

FL and LA Derby Analysis; Closing Day at Laurel Park

General A Rod 1
Saturday is closing day at Laurel Park then Maryland racing switches to Pimlico Race Course for a 35-Day Spring Meet highlighted by the 139th running of the Preakness Stakes on May 17, 2014.

Nationally, there are two (2) KY Derby preps… the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby. Both are contested at 1 1/8 miles. Runners are vying for precious Derby system points. One hundred (100) points to the winner with forty (40) points to the runner-up, third is worth twenty (20) points and ten (10) points awarded to the fourth place finisher.

The first will be the $1,000,000 Florida Derby (G3) at Gulfstream Park. A field of eight (8) will head postward in the finale of the 14-race card that offers eight stakes including the $300,000 Gulfstream Oaks (G2), $200,000 Pan American (G3), $150,000 Rampart (G3), $150,000 Orchid (G3), $100,000 Appleton (G3) and $100,000 Skip Away (G3). It will be part of a one-hour telecast on NBC Sports Network from 6:30-7:30 p.m. EDT. Here’s how these 3-year-olds will break from the gate in Gulfstream Park’s 14th race on Saturday. Approximate Post Time is 6:48pm EDT...

#1 - Wildcat Red (x3-1) J. Velazquez / J. Garoffalo

#2 - Matador (15-1) J. Leparoux / M. Casse

#3 - Cairo Prince (9-5) L. Saez / K. McLaughlin

#4 - Constitution (4-1) J. Castellano / T. Pletcher

#5 - East Hall (20-1) J. Leyva / B. Kaplan

#6 - General A Rod (7-2) J. Rosario / M. Maker

#7 - Allstar (30-1) O. Bocachica / M. Vitali

#8 - Spot (8-1) C. Lanerie / N. Zito

HOW I SEE IT: Just like the Fountain of Youth, that is, through the first 8.5 furlongs. The final 1/16th will separate the KY Derby Contender from the Pretenders. Cairo Prince and Constitution will track those two, with the latter getting the best of this group. East Hall threw in a clunker at Tampa Bay, but has always gotten a piece of the purse here. So use him on the bottom in your Tri’s and Super’s.

THE PLAY: $10 WP #6  and $1 TRI 1,3,4,6,8 / 1,3,4,6,8 / 5

The G3 1 1/8 mile $1 million Louisiana Derby is the 11th race of the day with a post time of 6:10 PM CDT.

#1 - Intense Holiday (2-1) M. Smith / T. Pletcher

#2 - King Cyrus (15-1) J. Graham / T. Pletcher

#3 - Louies Flower (20-1) M. Mena / B. Calhoun

#4 - Flat Gone (50-1) K. Desormeaux / K. Desormeaux

#5 - Gold Hawk (12-1) S. Bridgmohan / S. Asmussen

#6 - Vicar’s in Trouble (4-1) R. Napravnik / M. Maker

#7 - Commanding Curve (20-1) R. Albarado / D. Stewart

#8 - Rise Up (10-1) G. Melancon / T. Amoss

#9 - In Trouble (4-1) J. Rocco Jr. / A. Dutrow

#10 - Albano (9-2) K. Clark / L. Jones

HOW I SEE IT: In Trouble ran a super race in the Gotham, first time going long and after six month layoff. Look for Rise Up to be more forwardly placed and make amends for his last outing. Intense Holiday might have a rough going from the rail and the added weight might cause him to come up short.

THE PLAY: $10 WP #9 and $2 Ex Box 1-8-9

Saturday (Mar. 29th) is Closing Day of the Laurel Park Winter Meeting. This day is my most anticipated of the year. Why?! Because this means that the 2014 Pimlico 36-day meeting starts on Thursday, April 3rd.

Recapping previous blog posted selections at Laurel Park from Saturday, March 22nd had 7 winners from 9 races (4 Top Selections; payoffs in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.00 (1st race), $3.20 (2nd), $4.20 (3rd), $2.60 (4th), $7.00 (5th), $5.60 (6th) and $8.00 (7th).

The BEST BET of the Day (9: 2-3-2) Cheops (2nd race: 9-2 M/L; 9-2 PT) raced along the rail while trailing through the first 3 furlongs, then rallied 5-wide at the 3/16th pole passed all rivals except the 3-5 favorite, returning $3.00 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.

The LONGSHOT PICK (10: 3-5-0) Read All About It (4th race: 8-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) chased the pace three deep on the turn, was no match for the 1-5 PT favorite winner but finished well clear of the others to return $2.80 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.

FYI – the BEST BET of the Day selection will never be a M/L favorite and the LONGSHOT PICK will simply be the runner having the highest M/L odds among my top picks for an entire card.

PLEASE NOTE: Statistics provided for the BEST BET and LONGSHOT PICK in parentheses represent the Number of Picks: Wins-Places-Shows. For example, the BEST BET (10: 1-2-3) was picked 10 times resulting in 1 winner, 2 places and 3 shows. In the past, I would reset these numbers at the start of each meet. For 2014, I reset these numbers on Jan. 1st in order to chart results on a yearly basis.

Selections for Saturday, Mar. 29th at Laurel Park will posted on Saturday A.M. after scratches based on a SLOPPY track as the forecast calls for heavy rain all day. Selections posted were handicapped based on making multi-race wagers such as DOUBLE’s, Pick-3’s and Pick-4’s using all three (3) listed for each race in each leg.

1st race – $12,500 Maiden Claiming for 4 y.o. and up – 7 furlongs
#1 – Cooking Up a Storm (1-5)
#4 – Imperial George (8-1)
#5 – Wildly Leaks (20-1)

2nd race – $5,000 Claiming for F&M 4 y.o. and up – 5½ furlongs
#3 – Willow Creek (5-2)
#2 – Grammy Pat (9-5)
#6 – Tracey’s Smile (12-1)

3rd race – $5,000 Claiming for F&M 4 y.o. and up – 5½ furlongs
#6 – Stormin Margaret (6-5)
#1 – I’m Done (5-1)
#5 – Go The Distance (7-2)

4th race – $5,000 Claiming N3L for 4 y.o. and up – 1 1/8 miles
#5 – Imperial Force (8-1)
#7 – Hard Drive (8-5)
#6 – Cyclone Warrior (7-2)

5th race – $5,000 Claiming for 4 y.o. and up – 5½ furlongs
#1 – Senor Quickie (5-2)
#4 – Don Cebu (3-1)
#2 – Blue Wildcat (20-1)

6th race – $12,500 Claiming for F&M 4 y.o. and up – One mile
#4 – Bluegrass Belle (12-1)  $$$ LONGSHOT PLAY $$$
#5 – Brew Blessing (5-2)
#6 – My Unbridled Storm (9-2)

7th race – $5,000 Claiming for 4 y.o. and up – 5½ furlongs
#9 – Cotton Won (8-5)
#5 – Crosseyed (4-1)
#4 – Dancin n’ Dealin (15-1)

8th race – $40,000 Maidens for 3 y.o. and up – 7 furlongs
#1/1A – Gimlet With a Twist / Milwaukee Woman (4-1)
#3 – Dixie Traveler (9-5)
#5 – Balansense (5-2)

9th race – $50,000 Optional Claiming for 3 y.o. fillies – 6 furlongs
#7 – Aunt Ellipsis (5-1)  *** BEST BET ***
#4 – Officer Buns (8-1)
#6 – Proud to Be Wild (9-5)

10thg race – $12,500 Maiden Claiming for 3 y.o. – 5½ furlongs
#6 – Three Giant Leaps (5-1)
#2 – Baby Titan (3-5)
#7 – Chase N Maddie (8-1)

Good Luck!

 

comments powered by Disqus

Older Comments about FL and LA Derby Analysis; Closing Day at Laurel Park...

If there is one track that can rival Aqueduct in slwwziness,you named it Andy
Pimlico is opening. That has to mean that Spring is finally here!

Related Pages

Related Stories

Top Stories