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Dialed In Snares Florida Derby with Late Rush

Zipse’s Kentucky Derby Daily – Day 34

With all the more preferred front runners backing off Shackleford as the field straightened out for the stretch run, it looked like the surprise early leader might just be able to pull off a shocking win. That is before the best stretch runner of the crop, Dialed In, uncorked a relentless rally from last to overtake the 65-1 longshot in the shadow of the wire to win the $1 million Florida Derby by an exciting nose.

For Dialed In, the grade 1 win was visually impressive. Dealing with a speed favoring racetrack, he was gaining on the leader the entire stretch and reeled him in as if he and rider Julien Leparoux had things measured perfectly to the inch. It’s a victory that should set him up well for the Kentucky Derby in five weeks, as the promise of plenty of speed to run at will help the confirmed closer.

Before we can get too excited about the win though, the running time of 1:50.07 on the fast Gulfstream Park strip was slower than expected, and the slowest in the Florida Derby in seven years. After solid fractions of :23.30, :46.35, 1:10.63, 1:36.38, it appears that all of the sophomore colts were struggling late, save the winner.

Sent off as the second choice in the field of eight, Dialed in returned $7.80 to his many backers. The exacta with Shackleford, easily the highest price in the field, returned a whopping $339.60. Too Honor and Serve, who stalked the early lead, held on for 3rd, but lagged far behind the top pair at the wire.

Other highly regarded horses going in, saw their hopes for Kentucky Derby glory take a major hit. Flashpoint looked the part of a sprinter, as he tried to rate early, and then did no real running the last quarter mile and finished 4th. Favorite Soldat was a little farther back than expected and never threatened, while Stay Thirsty was far back all the way around.

The Florida Derby was Dialed In’s 3rd win in just four career races, so there is plenty of room for further improvement. That improvement will be needed, as strong as his stretch run looked today, he will need to be faster if he wants to wear the roses on the First Saturday in May. One thing we do know is two-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer, Nick Zito, has believed in this son of Mineshaft from the very beginning.

"Once in a while, special horses come around, and he's a special horse. I haven't been this emotional since Strike the Gold," said the happy trainer.

We shall find out just how special Dialed In is soon enough.
 

 

What the Nation is saying about Dialed In Snares Florida Derby with Late Rush...

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Yeah my Futures went down the tubes. That Hutchenson was so impressive. However maybe Flashpoint is only a cheap sprinter. I thought Pomeroy had some good ones. Two Punch yeah is sprint. I want to see Flashpoint race again, the sooner the better.
Yeah my Futures went down the tubes. That Hutchenson was so impressive. However maybe Flashpoint is only a cheap sprinter. I thought Pomeroy had some good ones. Two Punch yeah is sprint. I want to see Flashpoint race again, the sooner the better.
Agreed busted ... usually when you try to rate a speedy sprinter when he goes long, it is a losing proposition.
Dialed In is the typical Zito closing horse: Runs one big one and never wins again. Hey remember Strike The Gold trying to get a win after the Derby, it didn't come until Antley was dead. Well terrible strategy with Flashpoint. Taking back a horse who romped at 7F? He could have ran those fractions backwards. Too bad he's out of the Derby but watch out his next race wherever it is.
I think it's incredible how attached Zito is to this horse, he is convinced this is one of the best horses he has ever had....and it's only been four races!
The only thing I can say is that Dialed In was up against a bias, and perhaps he wasn't completely cranked-up. But it's hard to argue with the #s.
The Florida Derby was an ugly prep race - 93 BSF. I doubt we saw the Derby winner at Gulfstream Park on Sunday.
dubby30-I don't pick a Derby horse until the day before the Derby. Too much can happen. I don't particularly like Gulfstream as a track, so I was just wondering how everyone interprets the bias that had been said existed yesterday. He hd to run a decent half mile internally to get into contention and had to go wide. If he did indeed fly against a bias and ran well, that is the fact I was asking. It was a slow race. Sadly the Derby has been won by horses who have run slow races. He is not my Derby pick at the moment and he may never be. As far as comparing his race to Uncle Mo's, you are right . It isn't fair. The size of the field, the track condition and the totally different running styles do not offer a fair comparison. Dialed In has some really good Bris late speed figures. I don't take this race as proof that he will close slowly everytime he runs. I also don't take it that because he has fast Bris late speed ratings that he will outclose everyone. I'll just wait and see how everything develops. I'm not going to just write the horse off because of a Beyer figure and a slower last 8th than he has run in the past.
The final furlong of the Florida Derby was run in a slow 13.75 seconds, that’s mediocre I am not sure if some of you have him as your favs or not but it seems its difficult for some of you to be objective about the horse, its not like he was on the lead expending energy the whole race he sat off of it, way off of it, and he came home slower than most grade 3 horses. Im scratching my head to understand where the positives are. In this race he was able to beat grade 2 winners and just nipping a horse that has not won a race worth more than 50k, this is not called bashing on my part its called fact finding, and its about what you expect to see going forward to the derby. The derby is won by horses who peak and put up career best beyers to that point 108-115 or so is what you’d expect. So dialed in gets a 96 for the Holy Bull regresses to a prelim 93 for the Florida derby and you’re expecting against the most difficult scenerio for him to move forward and progress in five week somehow to ring up a beyer 15 points or so higher, unrealistic at best, now its hard to compare races but seriously speaking the way the timely writer set up at a mile and the way the 9f Fl Derby set up for Dialed in were very similar both Mo and DI got to go thru leisurely conditions and then coming for home 1 horse closed in a bit over 11 second and the other almost 14 seconds. Not a totally fair comparison but you have to find a way to put it into perspective, 1 horse finishes fast and the other finishes more like an allowance horse. The final furlong was pedestrian, and there are very few ways to put a positive spin on that. But if you need to that’s fine, im just trying to find a worthy derby winner not a slow horse that starts slow and finishes just as slow.
Dialed In looked good winning, and should be able to improve off that effort. Still don't think he's the one. With his closing style he'll be left with too much to do in the Derby and by that time Mucho Macho Man will have already fleed the scene by then to pull off the upset at 20/1. Dialed In will be coming late only to be headed by 99/1 shot Twice the Appeal. that trifecta would blow up the tote board!
I do think you have to have to pay attention to a track bias, and Dialed In certainly ran against it on Sunday.
How much do you guys pay attention to track variant and track bias, i.e.- was Gulfstream as speed-biased as Zito said and does that change your opinion of the race, and how much improvement do you think Dialed In can show from this race?
Dialed In's final 1/8th wasn't almost 14 seconds. It was right at 13 or so. On Equibase it says the fianl 1/8 in 13 and 3, but since Dialed In made the lead late, he went fasater than that. It was a very good race. Shackleford ran a great race, and he has a very nice pedigree, but one thing that you have to keep in mind was that the track was speed favoring and so that might have helped Shackleford some. Im not saying that the track was the reason he raced so well though. Dialed In had the track playing against him, but he overcame that. Also the beyer speed figure that Dailed In recieved from the race was 93. Not the best number you want to see, but numbers are not everything in this game.
I touched on the slowness of the finish of the Florida Derby in the article, but to compare more accurately with R Heat Lightning's time from Saturday: She ran the final 1/8th in 12.77, while Dialed In ran the final 1/8th somewhere between 13.00 and 13.20.
Dialed in closed his final 1/8th in almost 14 seconds, while R Heat Lightning closed in 12 and change.
scratch my above comment- read the chart wrong. Must need new glasses. Sorry!!!!!!!!!!!
If you guys look at the chart he was about 15 back at the 6 furlong mark, so I think you should give a little credit to how the horse closed. I'd say his last 3 furlongs were 36 and change. If he went in 14 for his last 1/8th, not that means he ran one hell of a quarter around a turn, something like 22 and change. Let's give the horse some credit for making a huge move to get in contention. I know some figure people were expecting Soldat to take a backward step. Guess he did.
Steve, you may be right ... To answer your question Ann, by no means was Dialed In flying down the lane. Yes he went a little wide, but the fractions late were slow, very slow. Having said that, I liked the way he was resolute on a speed favoring track. He was 3rd on my Derby list this morning, and today did not change that.
I've always like the pedigree this horse have...today he show some of it. Secretariat, Slew..A.P. Indy..Storm cat...I'd say he has a solid ped...
Dialed In struggled late too, running the final eigth in 14 seconds ... Uncle Mo can sleep tight!

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