The 2013 Kentucky Derby is now history. It will be remembered mostly for two things. The winner was Orb and the track was a muddy mess. If you are anything like myself, coming so close to a superfecta in a giant race makes you want to go back and look to see where you went wrong. What did I miss? What did I ignore? With pools so high in a race like the Derby, every stone needed to be turned and looked under prior to the race. Understanding the favorites and why they are the favorites, how they worked at Churchill and what was said about them. Which one was ready to burst, which one was on a down-swing. How would the track play, who would own the pace and who would come flying at the end. Who were the best 4 horses on that field of twenty and who would falter.
I am sure that most found themselves constantly going through the field of these three year olds even while showering. For weeks leading up to the big day their names swirled in your head like a terrible song that keeps you up at night. Friends who know nothing of the sport tolerated your long winded analysis and you tolerated their ignorance just for the ability to speak out loud the thoughts that brewed in your head every second of the day.
After post analysis has been completely drained and thoughts of
Preakness and Triple Crowns and Ogden Phipps jump up and take center
stage, my post analysis boils down to one thing. Slop.
Yes. Slop. With a bit of common sense thrown in. What does it take to win the Kentucky Derby, the hardest and longest race any of these young colts have ever faced with the added bonus of a thick and muddy track to hamper even the best of them. It takes a ton of Stamina and a ton of Speed to get that job done. It
takes a colt of great breeding, esteemed pedigree and little bit of
luck aided by faltering foes who give a wave to those who easily pass them by. Common sense. Sounds difficult before the fact and much easier after the fact but this is where learning comes from and how future situations can be looked at from a different angle without much grief.
The chart below explains alot to me. I did study this beforehand. I chose to ignore what I saw. I will not make the same mistake again.
Dosage Points Index CD
- Goldencents 1-2-4-1-0 8 1.67 .38
- Vyjack 6-0-6-2-0 14 1.80 .71
- Oxbow 6-0-8-0-0 14 2.50 .86
- Will Take Charge 6-10-8-0-2 26 3.33 .69
- Ismyluckyday 4-3-7-0-0 14 3.00 .79
- Revolutionary 10-8-12-1-1 32 3.00 .78
- Falling Sky 2-1-8-1-0 12 1.40 .33
- Orb 11-12-15-0-2 40 3.21 .75
- Verrazano 9-0-17-0-0 26 2.06 .69
- Lines Of Battle 4-6-17-0-1 28 1.95 .43
- Java's War 8-1-10-5-0 24 1.40 .50
- Overanalyze 5-1-6-0-0 12 3.00 .92
- Palace Malice 4-5-11-0-0 20 2.64 .65
- Normandy Invasion 9-6-8-1-0 24 3.80 .96
- Frac Daddy 5-0-4-1-0 10 2.33 .90
- Mylute 1-1-4-0-0 6 2.00 .50
- Golden Soul 11-5-18-4-0 38 1.92 .61
- Giant Finish 4-1-17-0-0 22 1.59 .41
The top three finishers in Derby 139 inherited the highest amount of Speed and Stamina from their respective chefs-de-race. As shown in points they placed in exact order of finish. The fourth place finisher had the highest Index and the Highest C.D. out of the entire field. THE TOP! IN ORDER! Dosage Analysis could be construed as coincidence by many. I will put it in my back pocket for the next Derby run on a sloppy track and I will not disregard any of the horses that fall into that high chef-de-race pedigree again. Dosage is not coincidence. It is an occurrence.
Written by Lisa DeMichael