Derby 135 in 135 Words

Mine That Bird won't hit the board in Baltimore. (OK, maybe a late running third) I hope it rains, and they pound him, I still say he's off the exacta for sure.

- The likely winning exacta, and possibly trifecta, are watching the NBC telecast from their stalls... Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra and I Want Revenge. Think you're right...maybe Mine That Bird could have rounded out the superfecta. One thing I know is I couldn't have come up with him on any of my tickets.

Was anyone else looking at the odds before the Derby and wondering why Mine That Bird was ONLY 50-1. Turned to my friend and said "what does someone know that we don't"

It was the perfect storm for them... best way to describe it. Every circumstance lined-up in their favor. That's what it takes to win!

I wouldn't bet Mine That Bird if the Derby was run today and I already knew the result. I would still think it's a fluke.

Mine that Bird still sucks.

Very good points. It was the perfect storm for Mine That Bird, but we shouldn't downgrade him too much... they did not completely lay down before him, he went and got them.

Don't know if Mine That Bird's effort can be broken down and explained logically. Strange things happen, and I will chalk it up to a fluke performance until proven otherwise. Pioneerof The Nile was my top, and I thought it was a done deal turning for home. Great ride by Borel. Birdstone denied Triple Crown attempt by Smarty Jones, and now he has sired one of the most improbable Derby winners ever!

Good point about Mine That Bird finishing 13 lengths ahead of closers Summer Bird and Chocolate Candy. Figure those horses went wide at certain points and that was worth 6 lengths. I'm guessing Borel's reserved early pace was worth another 7-8 lengths...

Both very credible and thought-provoking analyses. Another thought. Could it be that with all the hype about the slow Derby pace that was to materialize, too many jockeys worked horses too hard to secure "presser" positions on a tiring track? Still amazing that Mine That Bird finished 13 lengths ahead of Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird who were well back early, avoided trouble and finished with energy. Wider trips for both, however. Baffert was wondering out loud why all other jocks left Borel alone on the rail...same reason they did in 2007 when he took Street Sense home by rail...don't want to risk getting shut off and instead will cover an extra quarter of a mile of ground thinking they can actually have something left for the drive.

The bottom line is... Calvin Borel rode in a different race than the rest of the field. After a half-mile, Mine That Bird was 14 lengths behind Pioneerof the Nile. The rest of the field went too fast over a dull, drying out wet track. If you add the 6 3/4 lengths Pioneer lost by to the final time, that puts his final time at 2:04 - tied for the slowest time in 20 years. Here is why Mine that Bird won: - Think of it this way. Borel was 19th by 21 after a quarter mile, essentially going the first 1/4 in 27 seconds. He finished in 2:02 3/5. That means they ran the rest of the race - one mile in 1:35 3/5. With no horses in the way, working out on the rail, most horses in the field could work a mile in 1:36... especially after starting out in a gallop working the first quarter in 27 seconds. You just wouldn't expect to get to the finish line first in the Ky Derby, but he did. Just like a morning workout. (so, in case you're wondering... this had nothing to do with the horse's talent - he has some, not a ton, he's still 10th best in that field - or liking mud)