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Dead Heat Debates' Kentucky Derby Top 12

It has been a little while since my last Kentucky Derby list and now that the first major Derby Prep is out of the way, and  all is said and done, I feel some changes are in order. Enjoy the latest Dead Heat Derby Top 12!

1.) Itsmyluckyday- He is the fastest three year old in training at this point of time, and what really makes him dangerous is he can carry that speed. He just beat the two year old champion, and broke the track record in the process, when winning the grade three Holy Bull Stakes.
 
2.) Violence- Still has all the positive attributes about him, but right now I simply cannot deny Itsmyluckyday the top spot. He’s been working great at Palm Meadows for a return in the Fountain of Youth. His three year old bow is much anticipated and the result could be what earns him top spot again.
 
3.) Shanghai Bobby- Lost absolutely nothing in defeat, when second in the Holy Bull. Note that, he too, broke the track record and was 11 ½ lengths clear of his nearest competitor. He did all the dirty work up front, was coming off a near 3 month layoff going 8.5 furlongs first time back and he still ran like a champ. No reason to jump ship.
 
4.) Will Take Charge- Oaklawn always has something to say in the Derby and it looks like it might again this year after the Smarty Jones Stakes. This colt was wide on both turns and still had plenty of kick down the stretch to nail the leader and hold off late charging always in a Tiz.
 
5.) Always in a Tiz- Was third in this year’s edition of the Smarty Jones and a darn impressive one at that. He was stuck down on the rail for most of the race and didn’t get room until Will Take Charge had done just that. Once in the clear he came like a freight train. If he can find a way to keep out of trouble he’ll be a dangerous one.
 
6.) Oxbow- Check this out, the Coach, D. Wayne Lukas is back with two on the Derby trail. Oxbow was a tired fourth in the CashCall Futurity last year, but returned with an 11 length route in his first outing at three. Fair Grounds form hasn’t held up recently in the Kentucky Derby, but when D. Wayne is hot I wouldn’t underestimate what hiscan accomplish.
 
7.) Palace Malice- Returned with a nice second in his three year old bow. He was off a long time and was knocking off some rust, plus seven furlongs is not the easiest distance to comeback at. With his natural speed mixed with a pedigree that holds plenty of stamina I simply cannot wait to see this talented Curlin colt stretch out.
 
8.) Frac Daddy- Still on the list, but only because of his ability. He showed nothing in the Holy Bull, but ran greenly and reportedly grabbed a quarter. He’s going to have to start again soon if he wants a shot at some Derby points. Hopefully he can redeem himself.
 
9.) Overanalyze- He just missed making my last list, but after a sharp half mile work and already knowing that he has both talent and grit, I simply couldn’t keep him off. I still want to see him put two wins together, but until then I think I can live with him being the two year old that ran the fastest race around two turns, in 2012.
 
10.) Delhomme- Impressive winner in his second outing and was thrown to the wolves in the Remsen Stakes, where he set the pace to finish a game third. He is pointing towards the Risen Star, a race that is looking to be shaping up to be quite contentious. 
 
11.)Bradester- This one is going to get the chance to prove himself in the Fountain of Youth. He impressed me in his maiden and he impressed me again on New Year’s Day. Cerro also coming back to win this past weekend flatters him a bit. Needs to learn to switch to his right lead and will face a big class test when pitted against Violence, but as for now he is still an unknown with a great deal of potential.
 
12.) Proud Strike- I am hoping to see this one in the Risen Star, maybe against Oxbow? Like Bradester, he will be facing a stiff class test if he should lock horns with that one, but the talent and potential is there and he has the breeding. Just a matter of waiting and seeing if he is the real deal. 

 

 

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Older Comments about Dead Heat Debates' Kentucky Derby Top 12...

Anne, not a fan of him for a couple reasons. One, his inconsistency. Two, he had all the momentum in the Juvenile, and especially after Bobby stopped he should have been able to blow by...he didn't. Three Only two Tapits have ever won a grade one at 10f, one of them was an older horse. Tapits seem to excel at 8/8.5f, but almost never beyond that. Tim, I want to see Fury Kapcori learn to not be so dead set on wanting the lead. Talented horse, but he always has to right in the thick of things, and more often than not, he will lose ground in the stretch for that reason.
He's Had Enough???
Yukichan posted on another subject that Mark Casse is indicating Uncaptured is doing well and training fine, so hopefull we'll see a work soon.
Nice article, even if all the horses are from my part of the woods, I'm not biased. I don't care whee my winners live.
Fury Kapkori over PStrike,Bradester,frac,shanghi,...
Demonic and the two behind him were on my previous list. Goldencents I feel just wants a mile. His final 1/8th was horrible in the Sham. Demonic, though definitely has a shot if he can get into some stakes soon.
I do have my eye on a few west coast horses..Goldencents has been pretty darned good and I was taken by colt by MDO yes even though it was his first race.Demonic..very well made and looks to be a runner.
John, i really wanted him on there. The only reason he isn't is because his lack of activity is a bit concerning. It is the reason I left Palace Malice of before, because he hadn't race in a while and i wanted to see him back in action. Uncaptured is not as bad a case as that, just seeing him back on the work tab for a couple weeks would help.
Great analysis! My top 12 would be a little different but it is hard to argue against the points you've made. I would definitely have Uncaptured in the top 12.
Brian, the horses i like in Cali are coming off of maidens right now. The stakes horses I don't think are overly strong. Robert B. Lewis could change my mind, as it has quite a few nice horses showing up.
I look through the list once….and then I looked through the list again. Then I realized that the list was void of any west coast horses. Of course it is….it is Dani "East Coast Bias" Pugh's list.

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