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2012 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile: A Closer Look

 

The $1,000,000 grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile has quickly become a race known for exciting finishes and big pay-offs. In 5 years since the inception of the dirt mile we have seen great finishes like Dakota Phone out bobbing the gutsy Morning Line, Caleb’s Posse running down and away from this year’s favorite Shackleford, and who could forget Furthest Land blowing up the tote board at odds of 21-1. Though this year’s edition of the Dirt Mile lacks the depth of the past few years there still is an opportunity to find a playable long-shot.

 

Dirt Mile Contenders

 

1. Rail Trip 10-1 (Jay Em Ess Stable- Ron Ellis)   Jockey: Jose Valdivia Jr.

Rail Trip is the feel good story of this year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He recently  reunited with his original trainer Ron Ellis which has lead him back to the winners circle for the first time in nearly 2 years with his win in the G2 San Diego Handicap. The son of Jump Start has good tactical speed which he will need to use with the rail draw. The mile distance is right in this home run hitter’s wheel house with a record of 1 for 1 at the distance. He’s 3 for 4 at Santa Anita but the stat is misleading because his 3 wins came when Santa Anita had an artificial surface, He’s yet to win on regular dirt. The Ellis Charge will need to show a liking for the surface but he has the talent and heart to compete.

 

2. Delegation 12-1 (Gary or Cecil Barber- Mark Casse)   Jockey: Patrick Husbands

Delegation is coming in off two very impressive victories albeit in turf and synthetic races. The son of Speightstown has yet to run on a conventional dirt surface. His last win in the G3 Durham Cup at Woodbine was impressive but he rated on the lead through extremely slow fractions in the 9 furlong affair. The cut back in distance and abundance of speed could leave the Mark Casse trainee a lot further back than he’s used too. Play at your own risk.

 

3. Jersey Town 4-1 (Charles E Fipke- Barclay Tagg) Jockey: Javier Castellano

Jersey Town is coming into the Dirt Mile off one of the best races of his career with his win in the G2 Kelso Handicap at Belmont.  The Tagg charge relishes the mile distance and has a grade I victory in last year’s Cigar Mile to boast.  The only time this son of Speightstown has ever run off the board at the mile distance was in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. The problem with Jersey Town is he’s a little inconsistent. He never seems to run back to back big races and most of his best races were in the “Big Apple” but Barclay Tagg has said he’s never looked or trained better.  He is a definite win contender but he has too many questions to answer for me to take a short price.

 

4. John Scott 12-1 (Harris Farms Inc- Carla Gaines) Jockey: Victor Espinoza

The Harris Farms homebred John Scott is razor sharp this year with 3 wins in 6 starts.  He’s cutting back in distance from 8.5 furlongs to the 8 furlong mile distance.  This son of Bertrando has battled twice with fellow Dirt Mile competitor Rail Trip. Scott got the best of the “Trip” by a ½ length in an allowance optional claimer at Betfair Hollywood Park, Rail Trip returned the favor with a ½ length victory in the San Diego.  This gelding is extremely versatile and has shown the ability to come from off the pace. He likes the mile distance and I think he’s classy enough to take down the Dirt Mile Crown. He may just be my pick come Saturday!

 

5. Fed Biz 6-1 (Kaleem Shah Inc.- Bob Baffert) Jockey: Joe Talamo

Fed Biz is a speedy colt who’s undefeated at the mile distance. The well bred son of Giant’s Causeway is hoping to do exactly what Caleb’s Posse did last year  which is turn  his 3rd place defeat in the Grade 2 Indiana Derby into a Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile victory. The Baffert trainee was a bit disappointing in the Hoosier state, the early fractions weren’t all that hot and though he fought he had 0 left for the likes of Neck ‘N Neck and Bourbon Courage.  Fed Biz is undefeated at a mile and undefeated at Santa Anita, he’s lightly raced with a ton of upside. He’s a definite danger to win this race but I will be playing against him.

 

6. Shackleford 2-1  (Michael Lauffer- Dale Romans) Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

The “Shack Attack” is back for another Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile bout.  The m/l favorite for the Dirt Mile has all the heart and guts you could possibly need to win a race like this. Shack’s race in the Kelso was a bit disappointing as he yielded to Jersey town early in the stretch but the fractions were hot and Jersey Town was obviously sitting on a big race.  Shack has one of the biggest fan followings of any horse running on Breeders’ Cup weekend so best believe they will be out in full force to see the crowning of their beloved colt. He has speed to his inside and speed to his immediate outtside so he will need to break quickly. A favorite has never won the Dirt Mile nor has horse won on the lead. It will take Shackleford’s best effort to buck the trends in this year’s Dirt Mile.

 

7. Emcee 5-2 (Godolphin Racing LLC- Kiaran Mclaughlin) Jockey: Alan Garcia

Emcee had the option to go in the Sprint or the Dirt Mile, Mclaughlin and Godolphin chose the Dirt Mile. This son of Unbridled’s Song is making his first start at a distance further than 7 furlongs. He’s super speedy with the potential to be extremely dangerous. He has the ability to sit right off the likes of Shackleford and Fed Biz if needed, the question is does he have stamina to run them down late.  Emcee will be a short price on Saturday but he could be worth every penny of his 5-2 morning line odds. A must play in the Dirt Mile

 

8. Tapizar 12-1 (Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC- Steve Asmussen)   Jockey: Corey Nakatani

Tapizar is an interesting horse, at first glance it seems Tapizar can compete with the best milers in the country but if you look closely it appears to me that this son of Tapit just beats up on lesser competition. He’s 2 for 4 at Santa Anita and 0 for 2 at the mile distance.  As good as Tapizar looked in his crushing win in the West Virginia Governors stake at Mountaineer he looked  as equally bad in his 20 length defeat in the Kelso.  He’s a definite toss for me.

 

9. Second City 30-1 (Reddam Racing LLC- Ben Cecil) Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

Mario Gutierrez hopes to find a little “I’ll Have Another” magic with this unlikely long shot or maybe he’s just hoping to get to the track in time to ride him. Second City was a well beaten 10th in the Indiana Derby, a race in which Gutierrez arrived 5 minutes late  due to delays at another track where he was riding. Second City is very lightly raced and has shown a lot of versatility while hinting at having some real talent. He will have to improve leaps and bounds to find himself in the winner’s circle on Saturday.

 

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Older Comments about 2012 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile: A Closer Look...

Shout out to Hilton for calling Tapizar. I just didn't see it!
Haha hilton.tynes- I read your post a couple days ago and thought- watch Tapizar win now :)
Going with FedBiz
$1 tri 3 1st and 2nd w/ 1,2,5,6,7,8 $60 play
Tapizar a definite toss??! When he wins the BC dirt mile, i'll be back on this post lol
Shack hasn't been the same since fighting off Caleb’s Posse in 1:33.1 . I like Jersery Town. He's over come a lot of problems ran a nice race on that gd track in his last.
Two sons of Speightstown a son of Tapit and an UBS ..tough to figure out who will win this one..hoping Shack can get it done!

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