The World Championships are here. It’s the
place where some of the finest thoroughbreds from all over the world come to represent
their respective divisions and race to see who’s best. As for the racing fans
it’s a weekend filled with a lot decisions. At the end of the day you’re either
bragging or ripping up more tickets than you wanted to. But a bad day at the track
is still better than most and a bad day at Santa Anita this weekend could be
better than any.
everyone from Trainers, Jockey’s, Owners and their connections and of course
the Fans a great weekend and the best of luck. For anyone that needs one last
hard look at this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, don’t worry I got your
back. The field is set so let’s break it down.
point his resume isn’t too flashy because Bob Baffert has been taking his time
with this colt. After a 3rd place finish in his MSW debut at Del Mar
on July 28, Baffert kept him out of racing a full two months before he returned
at Santa Anita. His first win was over a distance of 1 Mile so he got much
closer to 1 1/16 but the extra distance against top rated talent is still the
big question. What’s not a question is how he’s been working recently at Santa
10/28/2012 5F 59.00 Rank: 1/50
10/22/2012 6F 1:12.80 Rank:
10/15/2012 5F 59.40 Rank: 4/54
solid. I’ve learned the hard way to never underestimate the quieter Bob Baffert
entry. I can’t say that I’m leaning towards Title Contender but I can say that
Baffert no longer seems to surprise me.
Bred moves into Southern California. Similar to Title Contender, Speak Logistics
has also never raced against a field of this class. After coming up short in his first Maiden race at Monmouth
Park he returned one month later to get that crossed off his list. From there
it was down to Calder and the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes. Raced over 1
1/16 it was a gutsy decision that paid off. Breaking from the 2 hole he got away
clean, went right to the front and never looked back. The fractions were
somewhat pedestrian so I don’t know if I expect him to break swiftly from the 2
hole once again. He has a tall order in front of him this weekend and if he pulls it out I will be surprised.
Kentucky Derby winning team is back on the main stage. Although they have shown what they're capable of, the chances of them joining He’s Had Enough in
the winner’s circle at the Breeders' Cup is a much bigger task. A pretty interesting factor here is that even though he put up a bullet work on the Santa Anita dirt last Thursday (6F 1:12.40) it's surprising that this will be his first ever race on dirt. My overall analysis of
this colt is that the team is already looking further down the road.
They’re not afraid to enter him in races against top talent but so far it has
not paid off – 6th Oak Tree Juvenile, 11th Breeders’
Futurity. He’s bound to break through sooner rather than later but I don’t foresee it
coming this weekend.
deserves the honors. I have analyzed Shanghai Bobby several times so far this
fall so let me sum up his chances by stating the obvious facts. Coming in he has the highest beyer speed figure - 94 in the Champagne Stakes. So, he’s good, he’s
in great company with his only rider Rosie and his top trainer Todd. He’s
proven his class, he’s proven that he can win with relative ease and finally, he’s
shown he’s capable of doing it again this weekend. The only questions
unanswered are if going two turns for the first time will be a problem or if the
travel out west will throw him off his game. My only answer is that we’ll just have
to wait and see.
here is my live long shot. He’s a California bred and that’s the only place he’s
ever raced. He hasn't yet raced in a Graded Stakes but I have a feeling that Sadler
liked what he saw the last time Monument was out. Just three weeks ago Monument
brought it home at Santa Anita in his biggest win of his early racing career,
the California Cup Juvenile. Martin Garcia won’t return in the saddle and Joe
Talamo takes over for the first time but at 12-1, it’s a nice price for me to
like when a horse’s connections skip the maiden races all together. Dynamic Sky
got started at Woodbine and went right into Stakes races where he won one of
his first two, the Simcoe Stakes. But, he will also be heading out to the dirt
for the very first time. Not sure if that will be a factor but it hasn’t kept
me from giving this colt a very hard look. I was impressed with his closing
effort in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland but I can’t decide if he’ll be able
to keep the momentum going after that gutsy 2nd place effort. If I end
up playing this horse it will probably be at no less than 10 minutes to post.
has taken a completely different path to the Juvenile than Sadler’s other entry
Monument. After breaking his maiden in his debut at Del Mar it was time for Grade
1 competition. In his two Grade 1 races Capo Bastone has raced pretty solid, 4th
place in the Del Mar Futurity followed by a 3rd place effort in the
FrontRunner Stakes. I think of Capo Bastone the same way I do about He’s Had
Enough; he’s going to score a big win pretty soon but I’m not convinced it will
be in the Juvenile.
8. Fortify K. McLaughlin R. Dominguez 9-2
One of the
big reasons Fortify has yet to shine is because of who he’s raced against. Facing Shanghai Bobby on back to back occasions didn’t pay off
but maybe the third time will be the charm. It’s not always a good resource to
use but while watching an interview with Kiaran McLaughlin this week I was convinced
that he doesn’t expect Fortify to get the best of this field. For now I compare
him to Alpha because I think we’ll see his best stuff next year when he’s
really ready to bloom in his 3-yr-old season.
that Power Broker drew the final Post Position because it allows me to close
this down with the horse that I think is going to win the Juvenile. Let’s get
the easy stuff out of the way. Power Broker is racing at home in California, he’s
trained by the legendary Bob Baffert and he’s got Rafi in the irons. The
Baffert – Bejarano team can get red hot and they know this track frontwards and
backwards. Finally, he’s got the distance under his belt already.
basic advantages but the one thing I like about this horse the most is the way
he looked during his win in the FrontRunner Stakes. Without too much urging from
Bejarano, Power Broker made a very strong move through the final turn and
simply turned it into a one horse race down the stretch. He drove home so
convincingly that I became that convinced myself.
factors that led to my decision to play Power Broker in the Juvenile were his
PP in the FrontRunner, his position during the race and the fractions out
front. Breaking from the 10 post was not a problem so the fact that he’ll be
starting from the far outside is a non factor. How we broke on the other hand
I liked how Bejarano got him away clean and settled him down in third trailing
by a length and a half through the ¾ pole. Which brings me to my final point;
by the time he got there he was ready for another gear that no one else in the
field had that day. That was most impressive because he wasn’t just coasting
behind moderate fractions in the front. Cruising behind 23.19, 47.53 and
1:12.45 before taking the lead and rolling across the wire in 1:44.44 was
strong. So strong it got my attention. I haven’t seen enough to get distracted
so my instincts remain the same; the pick is Power Broker.
to all of our entries, their owners, trainers, jockey’s and connections. We
wish you the best and hope for a safe return to your respective stables as we
look forward to seeing you continue your journey down the Road the 139th Kentucky Derby.