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Arlington Million Full Card Analysis

 

Race 1-Straight Line Stakes $65,000, 1 Mile, 3 Year Olds

 

#6 Cameo Appearance (2/1) has been a force to be reckoned with after returning from a 10-month break with 2 devastating front-running victories. It appears that #3 Mongolian Saturday will keep him company early, setting things up for the late runners. #7 Ground Transport (5/1) cuts back to a 1-turn mile while dropping from graded stakes company. He’s been working well over track, and should get a good tracking trip for a trainer (Stidham) that is 20% with horses laid off at least 90 days. #4 Positively (10/1) has 4 2nd place finishes in 8 starts and has run well in Polytrack/turf efforts.

 

Selections 7-4-6

 

Race 2-O/C $80,000N2X, 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 3 & Up

 

In a very difficult race, #3 Strike Impact (10/1) looks to  get the early lead with the country’s hottest jockey, Joel Rosario. #5 Nikki’s Sandcastle (9/2) needed his last while caught wide in a slow-paced race. Look for an improved effort 2nd time off the layoff.  #2 Coalport (5/2) is 3-for-4 over the course with his only loss coming last out in graded company. The cutback in distance and inside draw should help him lay close to the pace.

 

Selections 3-5-2

 

Race 3-$7,500 Claiming, 7 Furlongs, 3 & Up

 

#8 Fastestwhogetspaid (3/1) takes a big drop in class from $10,000 open claimers to the conditioned $5,000 level. His speed figures dominate this field and there should be enough early speed to help set up his late kick. #6 Beware the Tiger (10/1) runs his best when closing late, but was put on the lead last out and faded badly. Look for an improved effort from off the pace. #10 On the Run (5/1) won at the same level last out, so a repeat off-the-pace effort would not be out of the question considering the amount of early speed signed on.

 

Selections 8-6-10

 

Race 4-$25,000 Md. Clm., 5 Furlongs  Turf, 3 & Up F/M

 

#9 Happy Everafter (5/1) drops in half off a March layoff for a trainer (Forster) who has a good history with vacationing runners. Though untested on grass, her dam has thrown 2 turf winners from 4 runners. #2 Wedding Trifecta (8/1) adds blinkers and cuts back to a turf sprint. There should be ample early speed to set up her late run. #10 Ravishingly (5/2) is a first-time starter for a high-percentage barn, but the connections paid $145,000 for her at auction and has already decided to risk her for $25,000. Not a positive sign.

 

Selections 9-2-10

 

Race 5-$12,500 Md. Clm., 6 ½ Furlongs, 3 & Up

I tried to pick against #1 Corporate Intrigue (7/5), but the other contenders have had too many chances, and the newcomers don’t look too promising. This is obviously a last-ditch effort to get in the winner’s circle while adding blinkers for the same connections as the #10 in the previous race. Many of these horses appear to have trouble getting the 6 ½ furlongs, but #6 Clever Yank (15/1) will definitely handle the distance and should pick up a piece late. #7 Last Gun in Texas (5/1) consistently lands minor awards and should not thrown out of any exotics.

 

Selections 1-6-7

 

Race 6-Hatoof Stakes $65,000, 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 3 Year Old Fillies

If #1 Some Temper and #10 Liz Pendens hook up in a quick pace dual early, expect a cavalry charge at the finish. I look to #2 Sandsarita (8/1) to finish fastest of all. Last time out she was off a 9-month layoff, made 2 middle moves, and closed with a rush to break her maiden by daylight for hall of fame trainer, Bill Mott. Mott is 18% 2nd off the layoff and every runner he’s sent to Arlington has hit the board this year. #3 Bold Kitten (7/2) needed her last, will enjoy the switch back to turf and gets the barn’s top jockey back aboard. #5 My Option (3/1) leads the head-to-head battle with Bold Kitten 3-1, so she is an obvious contender that needs to be used in all exotics.

 

Selections 2-3-5

 

Race 7-American St. Leger $400,000, 1 11/16 Miles Turf, 3 & up

#8 Wigmore Hall (7/2) and #4 Dandino (9/5) are European shippers that appear to have this field over a barrel. I’ll lean to Wigmore Hall as he has performed over the course admirdably when splitting the field in the last few Arlington Millions. #6 Ioya Bigtime (8/1) appears to be America’s best chance. He likes the course, was second in this race last year and is possible lone speed of the group.

 

Selections 8-4-6

 

Race 8-Secretariat Stakes $500,000 Gd. I, 1 1/4 Miles Turf, 3 Year Olds   

Without much of early speed in here look for #3 Rydilluc (9/2) to take them wire to wire. Last out Rydilluc got hooked in a speed dual and was defeated by a handful of these. Look for him to turn the tables against them with a better pace scenario at better odds. #9 Jack Milton (3/1) is a very consistent horse that always shows up regardless of the pace setup. #2 Visiyani (12/1) is from the same connections that won this race last year. Everytime they bring a horse across the pond, much respect should be given.

 

Selections 3-9-2

 

Race 9-Beverly D. Stakes $750,000 Gd. I, 1 3/16 Miles Turf, F/M 3 & Up

#4 Dank (7/2) is the top pick invading for Sir Michael Stoute. The 4-year-old daughter of Dansili has never been past 1 1/8 miles, but from watching her previous races, the extra ground shouldn’t been a problem. #6 Marketing Mix (2/1) is a threat in every race she’s entered. Last out she capture the Sunset Handicap against males at Betfair Hollywood Park. #5 Gifted Girl (12/1) has been very competitive at lower levels in Europe. She should love the added distance, but faces the ultimate class test today.

 

Selections 4-6-5

 

Race 10-Arlington Million $1,000,000 Gd. I, 1 1/4 Miles, 3 Year Olds & Up

#10 The Apache (6/1) has been pointed for this race since running 3 times at the Dubai Carnival last spring. Trainer Mike de Kock doesn’t send many runners state side, so when he does they should be feared. #6 Side Glance (12/1) has been facing world class competition the last year as evidenced by his 4th place finish in this year’s Dubai World Cup. #13 Grandeur (7/2) has performed well in 3 previous U.S. tries, and seems well prepared to deliver another top-notch effort. This will be the toughest test he’s faced to date & with his outside draw will not offer good value.

 

Selections 10-6-13

 

Race 11-Hatoof Stakes $65,000, 1 1/16 Miles Turf, 3 Year Old Fillies

In the 2nd division of the Hatoof, #9 Frivolous (5/2) broke her maiden against males at Churchill Downs in her only grass try. Anything close to that performance should land her in the winner’s circle. She has 2 nice workouts over the Keeneland Polytrack in preparation to a return to the lawn. #5 Every Way (8/1) drops out of grade 1 company and moves back to the grass, where she is 2-for-3. Trainer Stidham is 20% with layoff runners, and has been working steadily the last 2 months here at Arlington. #2 Street of Gold (8/1) always seems to run a nice race and should be included at a price.

 

Selections 9-5-2

 

Race 12-$39,000 Alw. NW2X, 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf , 3 Year Olds & Up

In a grab bag of a race, #9 Agave Cat (12/1) is undefeated over course and has been working up a storm for his first try since January. Trainer John Good is 9-4-3-0 at the meet so expect Agave Cat to be fit and fresh first time back. #6 Carson’s Crown (5/1) should enjoy a cutback in distance to strengthen his late kick. At longer sprints he appears to hang and not finish the job. #5 Next Speaker (9/2) always lays near the front, but doesn’t need the lead to win. He should be included in all exotics while retaining the services of the red-hot jockey Rosie Napravnik.

 

Selections 9-6-5 

 

 

 

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Older Comments about Arlington Million Full Card Analysis...

Does it bother you that you were SO FAR OFF? Come on you maybe got Dardino- that was it.
Alive to 2,3,7,9,10,12 in the pick 3 let's get a longshot!
Nice analysis Jasen. Best of luck to you and those who will "tail" you.
#10 Colby Tavern pulls off an 11/1 upset in the 5th, getting up in the final strides over Nine Sixteen.
Cameo Appearance surprisingly cold on the board 4/1 off a 2/1 morning line. Fans must be anticipating a quick early pace.
A nice piece, as we all think different, cooler, dry, firm turf, using Million lanes, purses in U$D. TPD
Have a great feeling about this late Pick 4!
Dang, and there's overlapping two Pick 4's and a Pick 5?

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