Three of the
Top 10 HRN Kentucky Derby Contenders
will wage battle in what is clearly coming up as the best 2011 Kentucky Derby prep race of the year to
date. Soldat (Ranked #3), Dialed
In (Ranked #7) and To Honor and
Serve (Ranked #9) will wage battle in addition to Uncle Mo’s stablemate, Stay
Thristy, and the speed demon, Flashpoint.
The pace
projects to be white hot as Flashpoint
will clear the field while To Honor and
Serve will likely be his closest
rival ensuring blazing fractions. Soldat will NOT be part of
the early going. He inherited the
lead in his last two and you can expect this one to sit just off the battling
rivals in an ideal position. Stay Thirsty gets blinkers for the
first time and I expect to see this one closer to the pace than in his last
two.
Flash
Bulletin…Dialed In will have absolutely no excuse in this race. There couldn’t be a more perfect set up
for this committed closer. If he
doesn’t get it done here, his Derby top contender status plummets. One exception…a super highway speed bias is in play the
entire day. Watch the earlier
races Sunday to see if a strong bias materializes. Then and only then, would we consider an excuse for a close-but-no-cigar finish.
With Flashpoint going in the Florida Derby, the G2 Swale Stakes run at 7 furlongs becomes a wide open affair. I don’t see this as a true Derby prep
in that those entered are committed sprinters. My top three in the race are Black N Beauty, Travelin Man and Indiano.
Here’s the breakdown of the
Florida Derby and the assignment of
our exclusive HRN Super
Screener Quality Rating:
Gulfstream Park – G1 Florida Derby 1 1/8 miles
dirt
Field Size = 8
Number of Graded Stakes
Winners: 5
Number of Graded Stakes
Placed: 5
BRIS Pace Par: First
Call = 96; Second Call = 107
Projected Pace: First
Call = 100 Second Call =
109
Energy Distribution Profile
of Field: Very speed heavy
Morning Line
Favorite: Soldat (CURRENT HRN RANKING: #2)
Shutty’s Top Three Picks: Dialed
In, Soldat, Stay Thirsty
Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick: Bowman’s
Causeway
HRN SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = A
Notes: This now ranks as HRN’s top rated Derby
Prep thus far. The Arkansas Derby
appears to be the best of the remaining preps this year. Watch the other races run on Sunday at
GP to determine if a speed bias is in play.
Come back to this blog
Tuesday and we’ll take a look at this high-profile prep to see if trips, biases
and pace/speed rating outcomes will alter our HRN SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING.
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Go now to HRN's 2011
Kentucky Derby Contenders Power Rankings to see how the fans are rating
contenders and cast your own votes! Kentucky Derby 2011 Contenders.
GO FAST AND WIN!!!
Mike