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Breeders Cup 2015

'A Little' Louisiana Longshot?

a little warm
HRN Handicapper David Crone looks at the Louisiana Derby and a possible value play in A Little Warm, who is stretching-out from sprints to routes in the final Derby prep in Bayou Country.
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Older Comments about 'A Little' Louisiana Longshot?...

Nice catch on the track profile, bband.
Let this serve as a WARNING to all those considering closers in the Louisiana Derby. On Friday, there were four dirt sprints. All FOUR were won wire to wire. There were only two routes, but both were won by horses who tracked closely in third on the rail, and the FG Oaks was nearly won by a total longshot speedball in Champagne d'Oro, who was only run down by a 1/2 length by Quiet Temper. Be sure to watch the track today and see how it is playing.
  • humphrey · The ENTIRE pace dynamic for a sprint has NOTHING in common to the pace dynamic for three year olds, many of whom are going 9 panels for their fist attempt......A common error to think they can be juxtaposed. · 2403 days ago
Here in Nawlins, the buzz horse is STAY PUT. Seems like "humphrey" is on the right track with all the pace lined up. The analysis at racehorsereport.com makes some good points about STAY PUT too. Heard yesterday that Zito loves FLY DOWN. He is taking a big jump but Nick knows how to get 'em ready for the Derby. Those two could make for a hefty trifecta.
That track favors deep closers and I was amazed that RAs' people did not realize that so this season it looks to be amongst three Ron the Greek, Stay Put or Drosselmeyer chasing and probably catching Discreetly Mine

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