2014 Derby Futures
Watch - Dosage Profiles
as of 9-21-2013
First, understanding the
numbers: The condensed version…
What is Dosage? There are 221
sires listed as Chef de Race Stallions. These Stallions are categorized into 5
specific groups representing the distance they excelled in during their
careers. Some stallions are listed in more than one category. Their colt or
filly will be assigned points in each group. These points diminish as the sire
shows up in further generations.
Generation: 16 points
Generation: 8 points
Generation: 4 points
Generation: 2 points
These 5 numbers represent the
Dosage PROFILE or DP. Basically, the groups are shown as follows:
As an example, Zenyatta’s
Dosage Profile is 6-3-14-1-0. She inherited the most points in her Classic Distance Category. Her profile reads exactly the way she ran her races. Less speed up front in the beginning of her races and then poured it on and hit her best stride when she hit that later mark.
These numbers correspond to the stallions listed
as Chef de race sires that appear in Zenyatta’s Chart. Points were given for
each category and were assigned according to the generation within her pedigree. What she inherited read like a book during her races.
Dosage Points: Add up all the
numbers and you have the points. These are listed next to the profile in
Dosage Index (DI) – This number
represents the ratio of Speed Points to Stamina Points. Zenyatta’s Index was 2.00.
This means that she inherited exactly 2 times more speed than stamina.
Center of Distribution (CD):
The Scale below represents where a horse falls in his optimum distance.
Zenyatta’s CD was .58 which on the scale falls directly in between Intermediate
and Classic. 9.5f.
It is extremely rare these days
to find any colt or filly with a CD in the negatives. That's Man O War territory. Most range between 0 and
1.50. To understand the extreme, here are his numbers:
Man O War Profile: 0-0-4-12-8 (24) Index: -.09 CD: -1.17
Total Stamina. He inherited more stamina than speed and his Center of Distribution puts his optimum distance at 13.2f+.
But it is important to realize that not ALL Stallions and no Mares are
represented in these numbers. Only listed Chef de race sires. It is up to you
to dig further and add to these numbers. Listed Reines de Course (Prominent
Mares) are available.
TRIPLE CROWN WINNERS
Does your favorite have Triple
Crown Potential? Out of the Eleven Triple Crown Winners, Secretariat was the
only one to win it with a dosage over 2.20 (The Average Index). He boasted a 3.00 Index. He inherited 3 times more Speed than Stamina. To navigate all three distances with so much inbred speed is beyond all logic. All the rest
were under 2.20, with the majority far under that number. They all had Stamina Indexes but Secretariat was in a Speed Class all by
himself. It takes Stamina to win a Triple Crown not only for the distances that
must be reached for these young colts but for the rigors of the three race
stretch itself. The main reason why it is so rare to see a TC winner is because
most have ONE optimum distance, not three. Even if ones can excel at 12f, there
is always another who has the best configuration to excel at 10f. If your
favorite has an Index above 2.20, chances are slim that he takes all three
races. We can only hope to see another Secretariat in our lifetime.
HISTORICALLY, the first two Categories
demonstrate the best spot to win the Kentucky Derby.
The Following have inherited the Perfect
Combination of Serious Speed and Serious Stamina with the Ability to Navigate
the Derby Distance AND The Shorter Derby Preps. They have Inherited Speed to
Excel in races as short as 6f with the Stamina to win at 10f-12f. A Rare Breed
NOBLE MOON (USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 10-5-19-5-1 (40) DI = 1.58
CD = 0.45
Triple Crown numbers. Very
high inherited Speed combined with serious Stamina Influence.
SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP =
10-5-12-3-0 (30) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.73
He has inherited enough
speed and stamina to excel in all distances needed on the trail. Contrary to
belief, historically, an Index like this does very well in the Belmont Stakes. Unfortunately, Index is slightly off for a Triple Crown Winner.
HONOR CODE (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 10-12-20-0-0 (42) DI = 3.20
CD = 0.76
12f is pushing it
but his 20 in the Classic Distance in his Profile cannot be ignored. Triple
Crown looks to be out of reach with such a high Index. Serious Speed to go
along with great Classic Distance. Derby Distance is great.
(USA) b. F, 2011 DP = 9-0-15-4-0 (28) DI = 1.43 CD = 0.50
If this filly had the
opportunity, she would excel at the Derby Distance and beyond. Great speed up
front to get her there. A filly Triple Crown Winner is possible here.
HE'S GOT TALENT (USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 6-0-12-2-0 (20) DI = 1.50 CD = 0.50
Did not inherit as much from
Chef de Race Stallions as the filly above, however, same configuration and
should have no problem if he makes the gate in May.
FASCINATING (USA) b. F, 2011 DP = 10-13-22-0-1 (46) DI = 2.83 CD = 0.67
Quite possibly the best Dosage
Numbers across the board. Serious Speed coupled with Dominance at the Classic
Distance with the added bonus of a little something at Professional Distance
(16f+) Index may be too high for Triple Crown.
MEDAL COUNT (USA) b. C,
2011 DP = 7-7-21-0-1 (36) DI =
2.13 CD = 0.53
Dominance with a very even Index that just hits the mark for Triple Crown. Nice
Speed to go along with the Derby Distance Stamina. Under 2.20 Index gives him a check mark for TC.
RECEPTA (USA) dkb/br. F, 2011 DP = 7-8-15-2-0 (32) DI = 2.37 CD = 0.63
Another great looking filly
with great looking numbers. Distance is not a problem at all.
HAVANA (USA) gr/r. C 2011 DP = 6-7-10-1-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD - 0.75
Although inherited points are lower than the rest, the configuration remains the same. High Speed with High Classic Stamina. Tough goings for TC.
GENERAL JACK (USA) ch. C, 2011 DP = 6-1-24-0-1 (32) DI = 1.46 CD =.34
His Classic Points are top of the bunch along with a nice Stamina Index. Speed still looks to hold up at 10f. TC is a yes.
MONOPOLIST (USA) C, 2011 DP= 5-7-26-0-0 (38) DI = 1.92 CD = .45
One of the best configurations to have is very high points (inherited alot from list chef de race sires) low index (indicative of more stamina) and a CD under .50 (everything leans toward 9.5f and more). Waiting on maiden race to see if this one has the interest to utilize what he inherited. TC gets a check mark.
The Following have inherited the “Freak Dosage” numbers. These
are the ones who stand out with odd patterns and low numbers. They may not have
many “Chef-de-Race Stallions” in their blood lines, however, their prominent
sires and/or Mares (Queens of the Turf) are outstanding. They excel in the
Derby. (Animal Kingdom, War Emblem, Lil E Tee, Sunday Silence, Canonaro II, Count
Fleet etc) Keep in mind that only 2 colts over the last 75 years have won the Derby with points under 12.
This is a great spot to be if the points are 12 and up.
CHIVALROUS (USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 7-1-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00
CD = 0.94
HARPOON (USA) gr/r. C,
2011 DP = 4-5-6-1-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75
CASIGUAPO (USA) ch. C, 2011 DP = 3-7-10-0-0 (20) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.65
STRONG MANDATE (USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 5-0-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 CD = 0.83
RIDE ON CURLIN (USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 6-5-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44 CD = 0.85
DUNKIN BEND (USA) gr/r. C, 2011 DP = 5-6-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44 CD = 0.80
SWEET REASON (USA) b. F, 2011 DP = 4-0-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.80
(USA) ch. F, 2011 DP
= 1-3-3-0-1 (8) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.38
ALMOST FAMOUS (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 5-9-6-0-2 (22) DI = 3.40 CD = 0.68
NEW YEAR'S DAY
(USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 6-1-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD =
YES I'M LUCKY (USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD =
CLEBURNE (USA) b. C, 2011 DP
= 6-2-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.88
DESIGNER LEGS (USA) ch. F, 2011 DP =
1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67
(USA) b. C, 2011 DP =
2-2-5-0-1 (10) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.40
GADGET MAN (USA) b. G, 2011 DP = 3-1-5-0-1 (10) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.50
GIVE NO QUARTER
(USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP
= 6-1-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 1.08
dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.90
BOJI MOON (USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 3-3-7-1-0 (14) DI = 2.11 CD = 0.57
numbers win the Derby when configuration is Dominant in Classic Category.)
The following have inherited a very high amount of Stamina and
can compete at 10F+ but did not inherit crazy speed up front. If the track is
playing to stamina that day and the speed falls apart, they could be the ones
to pick up the pieces and fly by in the stretch.
SHELDON (USA) C, 2011 DP =
4-4-12-1-1 (22) DI = 1.75 CD = 0.41
STONETASTIC (USA) gr/r. F, 2011 DP = 2-7-10-2-1 (22)
DI = 1.75 CD = 0.32
SOUND OF FREEDOM (USA)
dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 6-5-14-1-0 (26) DI = 2.25
CD = 0.62
AWAY GAME (USA) C, 2011 DP =
6-0-14-4-0 (24) DI = 1.18 CD = 0.33
KITTEN'S JOY (USA) ch. H, 2001 DP = 2-4-20-4-0 (30) DI
= 1.14 CD = 0.13
dkb/br. F, 2011 DP = 4-3-14-1-0 (22) DI = 1.75 CD =
BLUE PIGEON (USA) b. G, 2011 DP = 2-7-14-2-1 (26) DI =
1.60 CD = 0.27
LIEN ON KITTEN (USA) gr/r.
F, 2011 DP = 6-2-10-2-0 (20) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.60
The Following Have inherited the potential
to make it to the Derby but historically may not have enough of one side
(Speed) or the other (Stamina) to win in Kentucky. These are the Average
numbers that generally do well along the way but fail at the big show. There
have been a few who have broken the curse, but not too often. (Generally, the
colts with a Dosage Index between 2.00 and 2.70 are the ones who upset the
Triple Crown Hopeful in the Belmont.Contrary to “common sense”, historically,
low Stamina index numbers do not win at Belmont, the majority of winners have
an equal amount
of stamina and speed to get the job done and this is reflected in an “average”
CONQUEST TITAN (USA) dkb/br.
C, 2011 DP = 7-5-10-2-0 (24) DI =
2.43 CD = 0.71
SOUND OF FREEDOM (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 6-5-14-1-0 (26) DI
= 2.25 CD = 0.62
KENDALL'S BOY (USA) b. C,
2011 DP = 7-2-8-1-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD =
ARCTIC SLOPE (USA) ch. C, 2011 DP = 6-3-11-0-0 (20)
DI = 2.64 CD = 0.75
(USA) b. F, 2011 DP = 5-5-8-2-0 (20) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.65
The Following have inherited numbers that
will excel in races SHORTER than the Classic 10f Distance. Incredible Speed that
demonstrates Excellent Sprinter. Any Index up to 4.50 shows shows incredible speed with the potential of making some noise in Kentucky, over 4.50 it gets harder and harder. They are the ones who go out for the lead, set an incredible fast pace and then taper off. A few have won the Derby with
such high Indexes, but rare. If they even make the gate at Churchill, these are the ones who could potentially have so much speed that they hold on for a little piece of the board.
SECRETARIAT'S GLORY (USA) C, 2011 DP = 8-9-8-1-0 (26) DI = 4.20 CD = .92
SOLEMNLY SWEAR (USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 2-1-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00 CD = 1.25
(USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 10-5-7-0-0 (22) DI
= 5.29 CD = 1.14
(USA) b. F, 2011 DP = 2-5-3-0-0 (10) DI =
5.67 CD = 0.90
(USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 7-6-9-0-0 (22) DI = 3.89 CD = 0.91
NEW YEAR'S DAY
(USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 6-1-5-0-0 (12) DI =
3.80 CD = 1.08
YES I'M LUCKY
(USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.90
(USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 3-4-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67 CD = 1.00
THIRTEEN ARROWS F, 2011 DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33
CD = 0.88
JOJO WARRIOR (USA) b. F, 2011 DP = 11-7-6-0-0 (24) DI = 7.00
CD = 1.21
(USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 4-5-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60 CD = 0.93
UNION LABEL (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 4-1-5-0-0
(10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.90
MOVING DESERT (USA) ch. F, 2011 DP
= 9-3-8-0-0 (20) DI = 4.00 CD = 1.05