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2014 Derby Futures Watch - Dosage Profiles

Kentucky Derby 2014
2014 Derby Futures Watch - Dosage Profiles
as of 9-21-2013
Lisa De
 
First, understanding the numbers: The condensed version…
 
What is Dosage? There are 221 sires listed as Chef de Race Stallions. These Stallions are categorized into 5 specific groups representing the distance they excelled in during their careers. Some stallions are listed in more than one category. Their colt or filly will be assigned points in each group. These points diminish as the sire shows up in further generations.
 
1st Generation: 16 points
2nd Generation: 8 points
3rd Generation: 4 points
4th Generation: 2 points
 
These 5 numbers represent the Dosage PROFILE or DP. Basically, the groups are shown as follows:
Brilliant-Intermediate-Classic-Solid-Professional 
 
Brilliant
Intermediate
Classic
Solid
Professional
4-5-6f
7-8-9f
10-11-12f
13-14-15f
16f+
 
As an example, Zenyatta’s Dosage Profile is 6-3-14-1-0. She inherited the most points in her Classic Distance Category. Her profile reads exactly the way she ran her races. Less speed up front in the beginning of her races and then poured it on and hit her best stride when she hit that later mark.
 
These numbers correspond to the stallions listed as Chef de race sires that appear in Zenyatta’s Chart. Points were given for each category and were assigned according to the generation within her pedigree. What she inherited read like a book during her races. 
 
Dosage Points: Add up all the numbers and you have the points. These are listed next to the profile in parenthesis.
 
Dosage Index (DI) – This number represents the ratio of Speed Points to Stamina Points. Zenyatta’s Index was 2.00. This means that she inherited exactly 2 times more speed than stamina.
 
Center of Distribution (CD): The Scale below represents where a horse falls in his optimum distance. Zenyatta’s CD was .58 which on the scale falls directly in between Intermediate and Classic. 9.5f.  
 
Brilliant
Intermediate
Classic
Solid
Professional
4-5-6f
7-8-9f
10-11-12f
13-14-15f
16f+
+2.00
+1.00
0
-1.00
-2.00
 
It is extremely rare these days to find any colt or filly with a CD in the negatives. That's Man O War territory. Most range between 0 and 1.50.  To understand the extreme, here are his numbers:
 
Man O War Profile:   0-0-4-12-8 (24)   Index:   -.09    CD:  -1.17 
Total Stamina. He inherited more stamina than speed and his Center of Distribution puts his optimum distance at 13.2f+.  
 
But it is important to realize that not ALL Stallions and no Mares are represented in these numbers. Only listed Chef de race sires. It is up to you to dig further and add to these numbers. Listed Reines de Course (Prominent Mares) are available.
 
TRIPLE CROWN WINNERS
 
Does your favorite have Triple Crown Potential? Out of the Eleven Triple Crown Winners, Secretariat was the only one to win it with a dosage over 2.20 (The Average Index). He boasted a 3.00 Index. He inherited 3 times more Speed than Stamina. To navigate all three distances with so much inbred speed is beyond all logic. All the rest were under 2.20, with the majority far under that number. They all had Stamina Indexes but Secretariat was in a Speed Class all by himself. It takes Stamina to win a Triple Crown not only for the distances that must be reached for these young colts but for the rigors of the three race stretch itself. The main reason why it is so rare to see a TC winner is because most have ONE optimum distance, not three. Even if ones can excel at 12f, there is always another who has the best configuration to excel at 10f. If your favorite has an Index above 2.20, chances are slim that he takes all three races. We can only hope to see another Secretariat in our lifetime.
 
 
2014 HOPEFULS
 
HISTORICALLY, the first two Categories demonstrate the best spot to win the Kentucky Derby.
 
 
The Following have inherited the Perfect Combination of Serious Speed and Serious Stamina with the Ability to Navigate the Derby Distance AND The Shorter Derby Preps. They have Inherited Speed to Excel in races as short as 6f with the Stamina to win at 10f-12f. A Rare Breed Indeed.
 
NOBLE MOON  (USA) b. C, 2011     DP = 10-5-19-5-1 (40)  DI = 1.58   CD = 0.45
Triple Crown numbers. Very high inherited Speed combined with serious Stamina Influence.
 
SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS  (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 10-5-12-3-0 (30)   DI = 2.33   CD = 0.73
He has inherited enough speed and stamina to excel in all distances needed on the trail. Contrary to belief, historically, an Index like this does very well in the Belmont Stakes. Unfortunately, Index is slightly off for a Triple Crown Winner.
 
HONOR CODE  (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011    DP = 10-12-20-0-0 (42)   DI = 3.20   CD = 0.76
12f is pushing it but his 20 in the Classic Distance in his Profile cannot be ignored. Triple Crown looks to be out of reach with such a high Index. Serious Speed to go along with great Classic Distance. Derby Distance is great. 
 
NUTMEG  (USA) b. F, 2011    DP = 9-0-15-4-0 (28)   DI = 1.43   CD = 0.50
If this filly had the opportunity, she would excel at the Derby Distance and beyond. Great speed up front to get her there. A filly Triple Crown Winner is possible here.
 
HE'S GOT TALENT  (USA) b. C,     2011 DP = 6-0-12-2-0 (20)   DI = 1.50   CD = 0.50
Did not inherit as much from Chef de Race Stallions as the filly above, however, same configuration and should have no problem if he makes the gate in May.
 
FASCINATING  (USA) b. F, 2011       DP = 10-13-22-0-1 (46)   DI = 2.83   CD = 0.67
Quite possibly the best Dosage Numbers across the board. Serious Speed coupled with Dominance at the Classic Distance with the added bonus of a little something at Professional Distance (16f+) Index may be too high for Triple Crown.
 
MEDAL COUNT  (USA) b. C, 2011     DP = 7-7-21-0-1 (36)   DI = 2.13   CD = 0.53
Classic Distance Dominance with a very even Index that just hits the mark for Triple Crown. Nice Speed to go along with the Derby Distance Stamina. Under 2.20 Index gives him a check mark for TC.
 
RECEPTA  (USA) dkb/br. F, 2011 DP = 7-8-15-2-0 (32)   DI = 2.37   CD = 0.63
Another great looking filly with great looking numbers. Distance is not a problem at all.
 
HAVANA (USA) gr/r. C 2011  DP = 6-7-10-1-0 (24)  DI = 3.00  CD - 0.75
Although inherited points are lower than the rest, the configuration remains the same. High Speed with High Classic Stamina. Tough goings for TC. 
 
GENERAL JACK (USA) ch. C, 2011   DP = 6-1-24-0-1 (32)  DI = 1.46  CD =.34 
His Classic Points are top of the bunch along with a nice Stamina Index. Speed still looks to hold up at 10f. TC is a yes. 
 
MONOPOLIST (USA) C, 2011   DP=  5-7-26-0-0 (38)  DI = 1.92   CD = .45
One of the best configurations to have is very high points (inherited alot from list chef de race sires) low index (indicative of more stamina) and a CD under .50 (everything leans toward 9.5f and more). Waiting on maiden race to see if this one has the interest to utilize what he inherited. TC gets a check mark. 
 
The Following have inherited the “Freak Dosage” numbers. These are the ones who stand out with odd patterns and low numbers. They may not have many “Chef-de-Race Stallions” in their blood lines, however, their prominent sires and/or Mares (Queens of the Turf) are outstanding. They excel in the Derby. (Animal Kingdom, War Emblem, Lil E Tee, Sunday Silence, Canonaro II, Count Fleet etc) Keep in mind that only 2 colts over the last 75 years have won the Derby with points under 12. This is a great spot to be if the points are 12 and up.
 
CHIVALROUS  (USA) b. C, 2011  DP = 7-1-8-0-0 (16)   DI = 3.00   CD = 0.94
HARPOON  (USA) gr/r. C, 2011   DP = 4-5-6-1-0 (16)   DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75
CASIGUAPO (USA) ch. C, 2011   DP = 3-7-10-0-0 (20)   DI = 3.00   CD = 0.65
STRONG MANDATE  (USA) b. C, 2011  DP = 5-0-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.83
RIDE ON CURLIN  (USA) b. C, 2011  DP = 6-5-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44   CD = 0.85
DUNKIN BEND  (USA) gr/r. C, 2011  DP = 5-6-9-0-0 (20) DI = 3.44   CD = 0.80
SWEET REASON  (USA) b. F, 2011  DP = 4-0-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33   CD = 0.80
SECRET KITTEN  (USA) ch. F, 2011   DP = 1-3-3-0-1 (8) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.38
ALMOST FAMOUS  (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011  DP = 5-9-6-0-2 (22) DI = 3.40   CD = 0.68
NEW YEAR'S DAY  (USA) b. C, 2011   DP = 6-1-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 1.08
YES I'M LUCKY  (USA) b. C, 2011   DP = 3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.90
CLEBURNE  (USA) b. C, 2011   DP = 6-2-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.88
TIZNOWFORAMERICA  (USA) b. C, 2011  DP = 7-0-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 1.00
DESIGNER LEGS  (USA) ch. F, 2011   DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67
IN TROUBLE (USA) b. C, 2011   DP = 2-2-5-0-1 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.40
GADGET MAN  (USA) b. G, 2011   DP = 3-1-5-0-1 (10) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.50
GIVE NO QUARTER (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011  DP = 6-1-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 1.08
TAMARANDO  (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.90
BOJI MOON  (USA) b. C, 2011  DP = 3-3-7-1-0 (14)   DI = 2.11   CD = 0.57

 
 (Low numbers win the Derby when configuration is Dominant in Classic Category.)
 
The following have inherited a very high amount of Stamina and can compete at 10F+ but did not inherit crazy speed up front. If the track is playing to stamina that day and the speed falls apart, they could be the ones to pick up the pieces and fly by in the stretch.
 
SHELDON  (USA) C, 2011 DP = 4-4-12-1-1 (22) DI = 1.75   CD = 0.41
STONETASTIC  (USA) gr/r. F, 2011 DP = 2-7-10-2-1 (22) DI = 1.75   CD = 0.32
SOUND OF FREEDOM  (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 6-5-14-1-0 (26) DI = 2.25   CD = 0.62
AWAY GAME  (USA) C, 2011 DP = 6-0-14-4-0 (24) DI = 1.18   CD = 0.33
MY CONQUESTADORY  (USA) dkb/br. F, 2011 DP = 3-4-9-2-0 (18) DI = 1.77   CD = 0.44
KITTEN'S JOY  (USA) ch. H, 2001 DP = 2-4-20-4-0 (30) DI = 1.14   CD = 0.13
VEXED  dkb/br. F, 2011 DP = 4-3-14-1-0 (22) DI = 1.75   CD = 0.45
BELLY OF THE WHALE (USA) ch. C, 2011 DP = 4-1-15-2-0 (22) DI = 1.32   CD = 0.32
BLUE PIGEON  (USA) b. G, 2011 DP = 2-7-14-2-1 (26) DI = 1.60   CD = 0.27
LIEN ON KITTEN  (USA) gr/r. F, 2011 DP = 6-2-10-2-0 (20) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.60

 
The Following Have inherited the potential to make it to the Derby but historically may not have enough of one side (Speed) or the other (Stamina) to win in Kentucky. These are the Average numbers that generally do well along the way but fail at the big show. There have been a few who have broken the curse, but not too often. (Generally, the colts with a Dosage Index between 2.00 and 2.70 are the ones who upset the Triple Crown Hopeful in the Belmont.Contrary to “common sense”, historically, low Stamina index numbers do not win at Belmont, the majority of winners have an equal amount of stamina and speed to get the job done and this is reflected in an “average” index.)
 
 
CONQUEST TITAN  (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011  DP = 7-5-10-2-0 (24) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.71 
SOUND OF FREEDOM  (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 6-5-14-1-0 (26) DI = 2.25   CD = 0.62
KENDALL'S BOY  (USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 7-2-8-1-0 (18) DI = 2.60   CD = 0.83
ARCTIC SLOPE   (USA) ch. C, 2011 DP = 6-3-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64   CD = 0.75
FANCY BOSS  (USA) b. F, 2011 DP = 5-5-8-2-0 (20) DI = 2.33   CD = 0.65
 
 
The Following have inherited numbers that will excel in races SHORTER than the Classic 10f Distance. Incredible Speed that demonstrates Excellent Sprinter. Any Index up to 4.50 shows shows incredible speed with the potential of making some noise in Kentucky, over 4.50 it gets harder and harder. They are the ones who go out for the lead, set an incredible fast pace and then taper off.  A few have won the Derby with such high Indexes, but rare. If they even make the gate at Churchill, these are the ones who could potentially have so much speed that they hold on for a little piece of the board.
 
SECRETARIAT'S GLORY (USA) C, 2011   DP = 8-9-8-1-0 (26)  DI = 4.20  CD = .92
SOLEMNLY SWEAR  (USA) b. C, 2011     DP = 2-1-1-0-0 (4) DI = 7.00   CD = 1.25 
WONDERFELLA  (USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 10-5-7-0-0 (22) DI = 5.29   CD = 1.14
SWEET WHISKEY  (USA) b. F, 2011 DP = 2-5-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67   CD = 0.90
CORFU  (USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 7-6-9-0-0 (22) DI = 3.89   CD = 0.91
NEW YEAR'S DAY  (USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 6-1-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 1.08
STROLL TO VICTORY  (USA) C, 2011 DP = 5-5-6-0-0 (16) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.94
YES I'M LUCKY  (USA) b. C, 2011 DP = 3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.90
DEBT CEILING  (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 3-4-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67   CD = 1.00
THIRTEEN ARROWS  F, 2011 DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.88
JOJO WARRIOR  (USA) b. F, 2011 DP = 11-7-6-0-0 (24) DI = 7.00   CD = 1.21
MEXIKOMA  (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 4-5-5-0-0 (14) DI = 4.60   CD = 0.93
UNION LABEL  (USA) dkb/br. C, 2011 DP = 4-1-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.90
MOVING DESERT  (USA) ch. F, 2011 DP = 9-3-8-0-0 (20) DI = 4.00   CD = 1.05 

 

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Older Comments about 2014 Derby Futures Watch - Dosage Profiles...

Nice article, Lisa. I'll probably have to re-read this probably three or four times, to comprehend 1/10 of what knowledge you have acquired, but, I appreciate your forewarnings about reading further ahead, at the risk of possibly getting lost(ha!!!). Anyhow, thanks for a share of your insight.
Anne and Anna, first, appreciate the nice words. And yes, I will do the Oaks probables but I will be honest in saying that I know the colts much better than the fillies thats for sure. But I will do my best. Thanks again.
Excellent AnneShaw, Yes to the fillies!
Real good article, Lisa, lots of work for you. Would you consider doing the probable Ky Oaks fillies?
Allen, do you, by any chance, post under "The Beast" as well?
Good work Lisa ….I am trying to learn more about the (numbers ) mainly the Dual Qualifiers ..Your hard work is the source i'm using , thanks again, for your dedication to this endeavor ...
Nice :) BTW its good to see you
I meant CAN'T get over!
Any time SS. I just got done looking at a maiden race running on Saturday at Belmont. HOLY COW!!! I am loving two of these colts. I can get over the numbers that these young ones are showing up with this year. I do not recall this in the recent past. I have a feeling that this year may be alot "easier" to figure out than this one last one. God Bless America!!!!!!!!!
Thanks! I loved his name too, and I liked his first out. They all don't have to be classic distance runners for me to like them ;) I really appreciate the analysis. I'll have few more for you soon if thats alright.
OK. SS, First, I love the name! Profile = 8-2-9-0-1 (20) DI = 2.64 CD = .80 This one is type to do very well at 7f baby races and will be one of those colts that if he should make it to the gate in Kentucky, his Index is one of those "average" ones... its not high enough to race with the speedy guys, nor does he have enough stamina to contend with the ones coming from behind. With that index, should he make the gate at Belmont, odds are in his favor t do well. The thing with this one is his Conduit Mare Profile which is 8-7-1-7-10... His Mares are adding alot of Speed in 6 to 9f, Nothing at Classic and a ton of Stamina in Marathon Distances. There is nothing to say he will not be a great one. This is JUST going by what the numbers say. Not my opinion nor any bias, strictly numbers for a two year old.
Lisa,what about a Tapit colt called Fire Starter?
Sure, SS no problem...I'll give it a shot.
Hey Lisa, can you analyze another one for me?
Buds, that a deal!
thaks lisa, im obsessed with the code aswell! your data suports my trend, look for the super stamina horses with soso speed. these horse r usually at good odds come derby day. id like to share some data with you when the derby comes around, together we can crack the code
words, that is.
I appreciate the kind works CFC. I guess I'm a bit obsessed with "cracking" the code so to speak. :)
Very impressive, Lisa. I have not focused on the areas that you describe in times' past, but, your descriptions are well appreciated. It can be easily realized the hours that you have devoted. Thanks for sharing not only your insight, but your effort to assist others with less knowledge.

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