Photo: Eclipse Sportswire
The Breeders' Cup contests bring together the finest horses in the United
States and their top European counterparts. These races can be very
lucrative for handicappers. Since 2000, more than 65% of the winners
have paid double digits. Multi-race wagers and exotics offer a shot
at very serious money.
2000, the Breeders’ Cup has been held at Santa
four times, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2012. The 2003 and 2013 editions were
contested over dirt while the 2009 and 2010 versions were held over
we reviewed various components of Breeders' Cup day one. Today, let's
take a closer look at Breeders' Cup day two.
Race: In the last ten years, the Chandelier Stakes (formerly
known as the Oak Leaf) and Frizette Stakes have produced the most
Juvenile Fillies winners. The Matron Stakes gave us two Breeders'
Cup winners, while the Summer Stakes and My Dear Girl each produced
one winner. Last year, Beholder was second in the Del Mar Debutante,
but won an allowance prep at Santa Anita. Only one filly in the last
ten years didn't win her Breeders' Cup prep. In 2009, She Be Wild
was second in the Alcibiades before winning over the Santa Anita
Polytrack. The average number of starts was between three and four.
One filly had two starts, one had five and one raced six times before
the Breeders' Cup.
fillies were close to or pressed the pace, before making their
winning moves. Three fillies went wire to wire while one, Stardom
Bound, made her run from the back of the pack. In 2003 and 2004,
Halfbridled and Sweet Catomine sitting mid-pack before making their
moves in the stretch.
rule in the Juvenile Fillies. In the last decade, eight favorites got
the job done while the two who didn't still finished second and
third. Win payouts ranged from $5.20 to a hefty $16.80. This is a
decent race for playing exotics. The exactas usually pay in the $50
Europeans have raced in the Juvenile Fillies in the last six years.
None have hit the board.
Plays: So, we're looking
for a filly that's made between three and four starts and who won her
last race, preferably the Chandelier or Frizette. Artemis
Agrotera won the
Frizette in only her second start, benefiting from Sweet
break. The latter has raced thee times and missed the Frizette
victory by only a stride. Secret
Compass enters the
Juvenile Fillies with four starts under her girth and a narrow head
win in the Chandelier. She's
a Tiger has raced
five times and had a tough defeat in the Chandelier.
Filly and Mare Turf has been contested 14 times. Only one mare,
world traveler Ouija Board won the race twice and placed once. In
three of four times the race was held at Santa Anita, European
Fillies prevailed. Additionally, at Santa Anita in 2003, three of
the four Europeans finished in the money. The Flower Bowl
Invitational was used as a prep by three mares. One won that prep one
was second, while the third finished off of the board. Four of the
last six won/placed in their preps.
mare in 13 editions of the Filly and Mare Turf has wired the field.
Long-shot Intercontinental denied the overwhelming favorite Ouija
Board a second consecutive victory in the Breeders' Cup. Ouija Board
would come back the following year and triumph. In the last seven
years, the winners sat either mid-pack or pressed the pace.
other Breeders' Cup turf contests, the Filly and Mare Turf has been
an attractive betting race for handicappers. No favorite has won in
seven years. One was second while three others finished third. Six of
seven payoffs lit the tote at $20.40 – $94.00 for the victory while
those holding an exacta ticket celebrated with mostly triple digit
earnings ($26.80 - $324.00).
to the results of the other Breeders' Cup turf races, foreign horses
have fared well, especially at Santa Anita.
appears to be the strongest of the Americans, having won her last
four races, including the Flower Bowl. Tiz
is the horse for course. She's won four of five starts at Santa
was last year's Juvenile Filly Turf darling and is showing the same
form leading up to this year's contest, although she could face a
tough Wise Dan in the Mile.
Races: The Filly & Mare Sprint has been contested since 2007.
The Thoroughbred Club of America (G-2) figured prominently as a
prep race, as the last four TCA Filly & Mare Sprint heroines won
or placed in the race. One filly placed in the TCA before winning the
Filly & Mare Sprint. One mare was victorious in the Ballerina
and one placed in the Woodbine Mile before victories in the Breeders'
Cup. The mares averaged between 6- 8 yearly starts before their
victories, except for the hard-knocking Musical Romance who raced 13
times before her 1 ¼ length victory in 2011. Four of the six
winners were four year olds, one was five and the inaugural winner,
Maryfield was six.
Style: No mare has won the race from wire-to-wire. Two pressed
the pace, three sat in third or farther back, and one made her run
from the back of the field. All won by at least 1 ¼ lengths or more.
Last year was the first time
that a favorite won the Filly & Mare Sprint. Two finished
second while the rest were off the board. Excluding last year's
chalk-fest of a $3.40 win/$6.00 exacta, most of the editions have
paid between $6.40 - $42.00. Exactas were split, with three paltry
payouts and three that were between $177 - $374.
Only two fillies shipped in to take on the North American female
sprinters. Both were off of the board.
of the winners of the Filly sprint won or placed in all of their
races leading up to the big event. Groupie
Doll will strive to
become the first back-to-back winner of the trophy. Three other
fillies have tried to pull off the double and failed. The best result
was by Ventura, winner in 2008. Groupie Doll won the TCA Stakes last
year on her way to a 4 ½ length victory in the Filly & Mare
Sprint. This year, she was third in the TCA. Judy
The Beauty upset
Groupie Doll in the TCA. She's won/placed in all except one race in
her career. Dance
to Bristol and Book
Review duked it out
in the Ballerina with the former prevailing by a bare head.
Race: The Turf Sprint has been contested five times. The three
times the race has been held over the downhill turf course at Santa
Anita, not surprisingly, course specialists were victorious. Two of
the Turf Sprint heroes raced in the Morvich before claiming the
trophy at Santa Anita. One was a winner while the other finished off
of the board. Last year, Mizdirection prepped in the Great Lady M
stakes at Hollywood.
Style: Focusing only on the
Turf Sprints that have been contested at Santa Anita, two winners
stormed from the back of the pack, while one did his best work on the
Two favorites, California Flag and Regally Ready won, while one
favorite placed second and two were off the board. This is a good
race to recoup your losses or add to your bankroll. Despite two
favorites winning, the payouts have been generous, between $6.60 -
$75 for the win. Exactas ranged between $38.60 to $393.00.
Five Europeans have contested the Turf Sprint. One finished
second while the rest were off of the board.
with previous positive experience over the downhill turf course
should be strongly considered. Mizdirection
is the first mare to win the Turf Sprint. She's a downhill course
expert and is 6-6 over the course. She was taken out of her game in
her last start after shipping to Belmont for the Just A Game Stakes.
Despite most of the contenders running in two or more editions of the
Turf Sprint, none have pulled off a double. Boat
is a nose shy of being undefeated in two starts down the hill. Chips
got the better trip in the Eddie D. over Boat Trip and has won four
of five starts at Santa Anita. Unbridled's
was ½ length back in third in the Eddie D. and was barely ½ length
short of Mizdirection in last year's Turf Sprint. Like the pretty
gray mare, he's a course expert and has finished in the money in all
starts over the Santa Anita strip. Great
was fourth in last year's edition of the Turf Sprint. He's only laid
two eggs in his career. Why should we consider him? He's by this
year's hot sire War Front.
Race: Eight of the last twelve
years the winners/runners-up in the Champagne have won/placed in the
Breeders' Cup Juvenile. In the last twelve years, the winners and
runners-up in three major races, the Champagne, Dixiana Breeders'
Futurity and Frontrunner Stakes performed the best in the Breeders'
Style: Since 2003, the majority
of the winners won either on the lead or pressing the pace. Three
stalkers won while two sat mid-pack before unleashing their moves.
Favorites have won or finished
in the money in all but two Juveniles since 2003. Despite this, it's
still a decent betting race. Payouts for the victory ranged between
a chalky $4.60 - $63.20. Exactas are worth the time to bet. They're
worth $17.80 - $254.00.
In the history of the
Breeders' Cup, four Europeans, Arazi, Johannesburg, Wilko and Vale of
York have won the Juvenile. Since 2006, nine Europeans and one
Argentinian have contested the Juvenile and only one, Vale of York
was successful. Note that his Juvenile was over the Santa Anita
synthetic course in 2009.
History repeats in the Breeders' Cup and this is not a strong group
of two year olds. Whomever wins the race will likely earn
Championship honors. In the last three years, Todd Pletcher has added
the Champagne/Juvenile trophies to his immense collection. He could
do the same this year with Havana,
who could be the second pretty gray to wire the Breeders' Cup field
in two years. Who else is on the radar? Bond
Holder won the
Frontrunner (formerly the Norfolk). No last out maiden winner has
ever won the Breeders' Cup you say? Wrong. Richard Mandella pulled
off the feat with Action This Day back in 2003. Dance
With Fate was a fast
closing second in the Del Mar Futurity and Frontrunner. He can be
placed anywhere in the race and still runs a good race.
is where the Europeans excel. Forgive me for stating the obvious.
They've won four of the last six editions of the Breeders' Cup Turf.
Many of the entrants have been this route before, contesting the Turf
on multiple occasions. Red Rocks and English Channel raced between
three and four consecutive years, each winning only once. Conduit is
the only horse to win the Breeders' Cup Turf in consecutive years
(2008-2009). He won the St. Leger in 2008, and was fourth in the Arc
de Triomphe the following year before his Breeders' Cup victories.
In 2010 Dangerous Midge won the Arc trial before his shocking win in
the Turf. In 2011 St Nicholas Abbey was fifth in the Arc before
winning the Breeders' Cup turf, but couldn't repeat in 2012.
No one-run closer has been able to get the job done in the last six
years. The winners all raced mid-pack or pressed the lead.
Breeders' Cup Turf is an excellent betting race. Normally there is a
full field with enticing long-shots. Only one favorite in six years,
the repeating Conduit, has won. Don't automatically toss the
favorite from your exotics. They've finished between second and fifth
in the last six years. If you have the patience to really study this
race and are accurate, you'll be well rewarded. Other than Conduit's
chalky win payout of $3.80 in his second go-round and English
Channel's $8.00 win, bettors have cashed win tickets between $13.60
to $36.60. Exactas are very lucrative. Tossing the $12.80 from
Conduit's win, the payouts have ranged from $53.60 - $172.60.
the Europeans. Of the
23 European runners in the last six years, four have won and two
completed exactas. In 2007 they finished second and third, in
2009-2010 first and third and last year one was up for third.
Horses that have made between four to seven starts are most
successful in the Breeders' Cup Turf. This year, Little
will attempt to add another Breeders' Cup Turf trophy to his
collection. Odds are against it, but don't dismiss him entirely, as
there's a good chance he'll finish in the money. Did I mention that
we should bet the Europeans? The
will take on the boys for a second time. If she wins, she'll be the
first filly to wear the blanket of flowers since Miss Alleged in
1994. Since that time, two fillies have finished second and one
third. The Fugue was third against her elders in last year's Filly
and Mare Turf. Flintshire
could be worth a second look. He's made six starts and was eighth in
the Arc de Triomphe. He prefers good ground and will have it at Santa
Race: Midnight Lute is the only two-time winner of the BC Sprint.
The Ancient Title (excuse me, the poorly named Santa Anita Sprint
Championship Stakes) and Forego Stakes have been instrumental over
the years in producing Sprint winners. The California Cup Sprint and
Pat O'Brian Stakes were also successfully used as a prep race.
Style: In the last six years,
winners have gone wire-to-wire, pressed the pace or sat mid-pack.
Only Midnight Lute sat at the back of the pack before
unleashing his devastating turn of foot in the stretch.
The Sprint is one of the toughest races to handicap. In the last
seven years only Midnight Lute has won the race as the favorite. Two
finished third, and the rest of the wagering favorites have finished
out of the money. Other than Midnight Lute, every Breeder's Cup
Sprint winner has paid double digits. Don't discount the California
horses. Three of the last six Sprint heroes are California-breds.
Half used a California Stakes race as a Breeders' Cup prep.
Discounting the single digit payoffs by Midnight Lute, handicappers
have cashed win bets from $12.40 to $52.60. In the last four years,
the exacta has ranged from $101.70 to $254.80.
few European runners had the temerity to take on the American horses
at their specialty. The few who have ventured into the race have
finished out of the money.
2013 Plays: Winners
have made roughly four to eight starts before contesting the
Breeders' Cup Sprint. They've won/placed in their last starts.
has a 4-2-1-0 record at Santa Anita and has made eight starts this
year. He finished second in the (deep breath) Santa Anita Sprint
Championship Stakes in his last start. The California-bred Points
off the Benchhas
won three of four starts at Santa Anita and has beaten Goldencents
twice. Private Zone has finished out of the money only once his last
nine starts. Reneesgotzip
was third in last years Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. She has a 5-1-3-0
record over the Santa Anita dirt and will try to join three other
fillies as winners of the dirt Sprint. The last filly to finish in
the money in the Sprint was Xtra Heat (second) in 2001.
The top miler in the wold, Goldikova ruled the Mile for an
unprecedented three straight years, 2008 – 1010. The last three
times that the Mile has been contested at Santa Anita, European mares
have won, Goldikova twice and Six Perfections once. In the last
seven years, only Goldikova and Wise Dan have their preps for the
pressers have ruled in the last six of seven Breeders' Cup Mile
Goldikova and Wise Dan came along,the
Breeders' Cup Mile was one of the best betting races on the card. In
the last ten years, Singletary Goldikova and Wise Dan were the only
favorites to win. Despite the recent chalky winners, those playing
exactas have done ok. Payouts have ranged from $13.60 - $1,979.00.
from across the pond fare well in the Breeders' Cup Mile. In the last
ten years, European horses account for six of the wins.
2013 Plays: Wise
Dan looks like a
repeater in the Turf Mile. If that's the case, we'll wind up with
another short payout. This looks like a tough field. Five of the
six Europeans have won or placed in their last three starts. The
U.S. based horses are no slouches either, and all but one has a habit
of winning or placing. You're on your own in this one.
If they won or placed in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, bet them. All
except two Classic winners since 2007 (Zenyatta and Raven's Pass )
prepped at Belmont. Winners made between four and eight previous
starts. Two colts, Curlin and Raven Pass were three year olds. The
last three winners were four year olds.
runners and closers have won six of the last seven editions of the
a favorite to win the Breeders' Cup Classic isn't a good thing. Only
one favorite, Zenyatta, has won the Classic since 2007 and only one
favorite has hit the board since then. This being the case, if you
can figure out the winner, you'll have a nice reward to end the day.
The winners light up the tote from $10.80 - $33.20. The exactas are
an even better deal, paying between $33.20 - $444.80.
Europeans and one Japanese horse have raced in the last seven
Classics. Two completed the exacta in 2008 over the Pro-Ride and
one finished third the following year over the surface. The rest,
including the Japanese runner, finished out of the money.
Is this the year of Game
On Dude? He was
second in 2011, but disappointed last year. This year, we should pay
serious attention to Ron
the Greek, Palace
Malice, and Flat
Out, the top three
finishers in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Bill Mott trains two of the
three and has a chance to repeat history when he captured the Distaff
and Classic in 2011.
The Breeders' Cup races
offer a chance to reap huge rewards. Most of the betting favorites
don't win, so spend time looking at mid to long priced horses. Don't
be afraid to spread the cash around in exotic bets. Gather some
friends (or trustworthy strangers) together and toss some money into
a pool for the Pick 3's, or go large with the Pick 6. Most
importantly, win or lose, enjoy watching the races and have fun!