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2010 Super Derby Day Analysis - Sept 25

Louisiana Downs full card analysis (Super Derby Day) – Saturday (9-25-10)

by Jarrod Horak 

LAD 1 (Mcl-12.5k, 3,4,5yo, 6f) #5 ZARROZZI (12-1) is out of a 17% debut Maiden Claiming outfit and his local 3f drill on Sept 11 looks solid. #2 Limerock (7-5) earned decent numbers in local straight Maiden bow and anything resembling that effort puts him squarely in the mix throughout. The top two finishers from that heat both came back to score and he has the 36% Eramia/Nicks team in his corner. Sharp trainer Michelle Lovell is 22% with firsters and she has #1 Jim N Pegs Gal (12-1) ready to go in this spot. Dam has tossed three winners. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Exacta 2/1-5, Exacta 1-5/2

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Older Comments about 2010 Super Derby Day Analysis - Sept 25...

EXPERIENCE, and the lessons of having run in a REAL race, not some isolated quiet morning trails with no dirt in their faces, counts for a lot in the baby learning curve. Not some theoretical heterogeneous stats...Think of it: INDIVIDUALS (the horses) have their own specific talents and aptitudes, YET these silly stats lump all of them together UNDER THE TRAINER ( an individual who never runs in a race)...... My goodness. Taleb Nassim and Leonard Mlodinow have it pegged when it comes to gleaned cause and effect as a quantum leap to simple correlation.
nice odds too 1st race - Louisiana Downs - September 25, 2010 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 6 Covey's Cascade 22.40 5.60 5.00 2 Limerock 2.20 2.20 1 Jim N Peg's Gal 7.40
if they run anywhere like their past performances, the 6 and the 2 dominant here

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