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14 Long Shots for the Breeders' Cup

New Year's Day work 615 X 400
Photo: Don August
Buckle up racefans, it's less than 24 hours until racing's World Championships. 14 big races to anticpate, handicap, and win some serious money. To that end, I am choosing my favorite longshot in each and every race of the Breeders' Cup. Even hitting only one or two of these could pay off huge. The over/under on correct longshot selections at this point is 2 ... I'm going to go ahead and guarantee 3!
 
Friday 
Breeders’ Cup Marathon - Pool Play - Even at the extended 14 furlong distance, there looks to be plenty of early speed in this one. Look for a late runner to pick up all the pieces, and Pool Play has the back class 
 
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf - All Cash - D. Wayne has  a bomb, and I'm interested. Bred to handle two-turns on the turf, All Cash ran a sneaky good race in the Bourbon at Keeneland last time.
 
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile – Brujo de Ollejeros - I am hoping this one doesn't become Friday's wise guy horse, because I think the Uraguay import has a big chance. He looks like a major talent, who is peaking at the right time.
 
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf – Colonel Joan - This daughter of Colonel John is improving with every start, and if she gets enough speed to run at, could at the very least be the one to fill out the exotics.
 
Breeders’ Cup Distaff - Close Hatches - I know she is only 6-1 on the morning line, but I expect her to drift up as the fifth choice in a six-horse race. Look for her to run a strong race for the team of Mott and Rosario.
   
Saturday 
 
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies – Concave - There aren't a lot of interesting longshots in this one, but O'Neill has a filly here, who if she moves up just a little in her first try on dirt, could be a stretch factor in the Juvenile Fillies.
 
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf - Lady of Shamrock - Last year's hot three-year-old turf filly has not exactly lit things up this year, but she also has not had the benefit of any strong paces to run at. Not far from winning last year, she could pull a shocker on Saturday.
 
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint – Sweet Lulu - It could be time for this young filly to make her big breakthrough. The Test win was a biggie, but now she takes on the olders. She has the speed to stay in touch, and the Cotillion should have given her the foundation to finish strong.
 
Breeders’ Cup Sprint - Gentemen's Bet - A poor break in the Phoenix cost him a serious chance at victory, and now he gets back on dirt where he has already proven that he can run fast. A middle of the pack early scenario could spell a big chance in the Sprint.
 
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – Unbridled's Note - Last year's runner-up is 8-1 on the morning line, and I would be thrilled to get him at those odds. After an early season without much happening, he returned with a big effort last time. He should be ready to run his best on Saturday.
 
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile - New Year's Day - This son of Street Cry has two solid efforts at Del Mar, including a win over Bond Holder to break his maiden. He is working sharply on dirt over the Santa Anita main track, and should move up once again in his third lifetime start.
 
Breeders’ Cup Mile - Za Approval - With all this speed, the fur should fly on the firm Santa Anita lawn, setting things up for a late runner. Za Approval loves the distance and the dry turf, and might be just the horse to roll by the reigning Horse of the Year late.
 
Breeders’ Cup Turf - Little Mike - The Fugue stands over this field, in my estimation, but if anyone can stop the excellent filly, why not the defending champ. After the last one, it would be hard to believe he is not back to his best. Will he be disrespected one more time?
 
Breeders’ Cup Classic – Will Take Charge - I honestly have not been a believer of this one all along, but I am really starting to warm up to D. Wayne's physical specimen. Blinkers off, and a little maturity, would seem to have made all the difference.
 

 

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Older Comments about 14 Long Shots for the Breeders' Cup...

I'm all over WTC. Huge fan of his. Loved this horse since Jan. Let's prove the doubters wrong and snatch the 3yo title! :)
My only real longshot pick is Laugh track. If he can beat Essence Hitman at Woodbine going 7f, he is good enough anywhere.
I agree with Close Hatches, Concave, and Lady of Shamrock. I am looking for an upset in the Classic but I think it might be Declaration of War. I have fingers crossed for Little Mike.
The more I've looked at the distaff, the more I've come to the conclusion it's a 2 horse race. Sorry, no price play here. I was all over Authenticity a couple of weeks ago but seeing how Royal Delta and Princess of Sylmar are coming into the race, I see nothing beating one of these 2 gals...I just don't know which will be the winner.
There are so many live in the BC juvy fillies turf but my live longshot for this race is Sky Painter.
Centralinteligence is my longshot for the BC Dirt Mile. I just think he'll appreciate the added distance.
My longshot for the BC Marathon is Blueskies. I just have a feeling he'll outdo the cheap speed in the field. Just concerned the Argentinian will run him down.
Ontology is a very live longshot in the BC Juvy Turf. Don't overlook this runner. I'm also interested in a Bourbon runner named Bon Accord. The Aidan runners have to be recognized, but these are my two live longshots in the baby turf race.
Nice post Brian! It's worth $28 to put $2 to WIN on each cuz it only takes one to potentially return a profit.
Well i took a look at the charts this week and it looks like the speed bias is worse this year than last year. Today there were six dirt races and four horses wired their fields. the other two were won by horses that were never more than 2 lengths off the pace. so while I agree that will take charge would be a live long shot at any other track I can't bet him because of his running style. I'm going to bet a flyer on Moreno at 30 or 35 to 1 instead.
Already have Pool Play and All Cash, try the other Calumet runner Tour Guide in the Damascus. Broadway Empire, Moreno and Renee's Titan look good too. I am surprised at the lack of a mention for Ismene
If I was you I would pay attention to these BC13 Zipse long shots.

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