Here's a list of lessons we learned from Derby 136 and the entire weekend!
10. Media hyped stats like "Pletcher is 0-for-24 in the Derby" are completely worthless.
Enough said.
9. Churchill Downs needs to change their Derby selection criteria of Graded Stakes Earnings.
It is apparent that entering the Derby has now become a free-for-all, and even if their horse has no chance, very few owners will resist running if they can get in. Because of this, it's time to properly value earnings as a 2-year-old, in turf races, and international races if nothing else.
8. Because so many horses don't belong in the Derby, as a handicapper, you have to trust your instincts and toss those horses.
Because of crazy results like Mine That Bird, it's tempting to make cases for every horse in the race, but in reality, horses like Homeboykris, Discreetly Mine, Backtalk, Conveyance and several others didn't belong in the race.
7. You can draw a line through the Blue Grass Stakes.
Once again, it's very difficult to draw many conclusions from the Blue Grass over Keeneland's polytrack. The race draws a competitive field, so it can't be tossed completely. This year, the race produced the third and fourth place horses in the Derby in Paddy O'Prado (2nd in the Blue Grass) and Make Music for Me (sixth). But Stately Victor, the Blue Grass winner, could only manage eighth. Still, that was much better than the Lane's End winner, Dean's Kitten, who ran 14th.
6. Derby preps are for preparation
While many connections are scrambling from Derby prep to Derby prep to win money, earn graded stakes money and prove their horses belong, the ones that already belong have a big advantage.
When many horses were scrambling in January and February, Pletcher said that Super Saver "would make a start" in March. He didn't look all that great in the Tampa Bay Derby, but that was his first race back. Then he didn't win the Arkansas Derby, and like many, we didn't know what to make of it. But if you watch the Arkansas Derby replay carefully, Borel taught Super Saver to drop back a good 4-5 lengths off the pace and that gave this frontrunning horse an entirely new dimension.
5. You can't trust Polytrack winners back on dirt.
Stately Victor and Dean's Kitten looked superb winning Derby preps, but not so great on Derby day.
4. California synthetic runners often throw better figures on dirt, if they take to it.
Although Lookin at Lucky didn't win the Derby, he ran great in Oaklawn in his first dirt start. So did Noble's Promise. Blind Luck ran huge at Oaklawn, and Evening Jewel ran well at Keeneland, but even better on dirt. Make Music For Me ran poorly over polytrack, but better on dirt.
3. Don't bet overblown reputation horses.
Setsuko closed like a freight train in the Santa Anita Derby, so many people were waiting for this horse to get in the Derby. When he didn't make the cut, everyone unbuckled their wallets and pounded him in the American Turf on Friday. The problem is, he was facing a field of experienced turf runners, and he hadn't really ever done much of anything on turf. He went off at 9-5 and ran a non-threatening fourth.
2. The Kentucky Derby Superfecta is one of the greatest bets in racing and the Big Kahuna for all horseplayers.
The exacta was quite logical and paid $152.40. If you had these two, it didn't take all that much imagination to wheel another 10-12 horses in third and fourth - if you had the pocketbook. For a $2 base bet, the $202,569 payoff was massive.
1. Don't ever bet against Calvin Borel in the mud at Churchill Downs!
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