Belmont Stakes Analysis, Selections and Picks

WHY MINE THAT BIRD WON’T WIN THE BELMONT STAKES

By Mike Shutty, HorseRacingNation

As the saying goes, fool me once; shame on you.  Fool me twice; shame on me.  Fool me a third time and this racing pundit will be helping himself to a heaping plate of a different kind of “bird” that goes by the name—crow!

I, along with a legion of other non believers, acknowledged that while we were fooled by the outcome of the Kentucky Derby, there was no way Mine That Bird was going to fool us again in the Preakness Stakes.  The proclamations were plentiful.  Some of us felt that Mine That Bird had everything his way in the Derby…closing into a strong pace along the best part of the track enjoying a dream trip.  Others speculated that no horse that just ran the top figure of its career by 15-20 points (depending on your speed rating service) could duplicate that effort in the Preakness Stakes.

Standing united some of us non believers (including yours truly) boldly declared that Mine That Bird would not even hit the board in the Preakness.  Our more conservative brethren took the stand against Mine That Bird winning the race and were vindicated for their insight though holding their breath during the stretch run.

So, where do I stand on Mine That Bird now?  Well, I can unequivocally say that I am a true believer in the “Bird”.  He proved to me that he belongs and is one of the better horses in this beaten up crop of three year olds (males that is). 

Can Mine That Bird win the Belmont?  Absolutely not!  Does he have a chance to finish second?  No way!  What about third or fourth?  Hmmmm…maybe.  I have three reasons for taking this position despite my new found belief in Mine That Bird’s abilities.  Those reasons are as follows:

1. Pace

2. Pace

3. See 1 and 2

And, other reasons I will cover later.

First, it may be helpful for us to go back and quickly review the projected and actual pace scenarios for both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.  Doing so will provide us with some valuable insights around the outcomes of those races and the likely pace scenario of the Belmont Stakes. While there are several very good providers of pace figures to choose from, we’ll be using BRIS pace figures for our analysis.

The chart below shows us the first call and second call pace pars, projected pace and pars the actual pace pars (excluding the yet-to-be-run Belmont Stakes) of the 2009 Triple Crown races

 TRIPLE CROWN PACE ANALYSIS

 Note that both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes were projected to be run at a slower pace than par.  Join in the Dance, however, set fractions in the Derby that were far and above anything he had run prior (and will probably ever run again) to the surprise of many.  That run produced a very fast early pace and most of front runners running with him (on the most tiring part of the track) had nothing left and the closers all went wide on the deep surface…with the exception of rail-skimming Mine That Bird.

In the Preakness, the pace was projected to be a bit faster than par but the extraordinary filly, Rachel Alexandra, took the boys around the block in more aggressive fractions.  Anyone close to her early got burned in her wake.  The late chargers made their run at her to fill the next three spots with Mine That Bird finishing best of all but not good enough for the victory.

Now we come to the Belmont Stakes and the consensus among even the trainers is that this year’s running will feature one of the slowest paced races in many years.  I am projecting a pace line of something around 89 to 90 for the first call (that’s crawling) and 103 to104 for the second call…which is a far cry from the 111 and 110 cut in the Derby and Preakness, respectively.

Using the BRIS PP’s, we derived the projected pace of the Belmont Stakes by looking at the fastest pace line of all two-turn routes run at a 1 1/16 or more for each horse.  Here’s what we found:

*Used E2 and LP fractions due to slow early pace

Note that all horses with the exception of Dunkirk and Nowhere to Hide (and his fractions appear to be an outlier) ran the first call in less than 90 which screams no speed!  For the second fraction, only four horses have exceeded the century mark and none of them posting anything over 105.  Allowance races are run faster than this!

Assuming Nowhere to Hide won’t run back to a 91 and Dunkirk can return to something closer to his Florida form, the first call of the Belmont Stakes will be run somewhere near 90 with the second call around 104 with the fresh horse, Charitable Man, leading the way.  Contrast this with the Preakness Stakes pace line of 102 and 111 and you can understand why trainers with closers are concerned about the fate of their charges. 

This author believes that Charitable Man will be sent for the lead with Dunkirk and Miner’s Escape in touch with that leader.  The race will be run more like a turf marathon  (very slow early/fast late).  They’ll carry the field into the top of the stretch and then they’ll rely on their distance breeding and conditioning to sustain their bids.

I am confident that either Charitable Man or Dunkirk will win the race (Zito’s Miner’s Escape has a shot at upsetting).  Two of these three horses will fill the win and place spot while Flying Private, Summer Bird and Mine That Bird will be the best candidates to fill the bottom the of the Trifecta and Superfecta.

As if the projected pace wasn’t enough, another knock I have against Mine That Bird is that he has now run two lifetime tops (though did regress some in the Preakness) and that’s got to take some of the zip out of his patented 3-furlong closing dash.  The other closers in the race are a bit more fresh coming into the Preakness and may have more “punch” in the end.

My prediction of the order of finish for this race is as follows:

1. Dunkirk
2. Charitable Man
3. Miner’s Escape
4. Mine That Bird
5. Flying Private
6. Summer Bird
7. Brave Victory
8. Chocolate Candy
9. Luv Gov
10. Mr Hot Stuff

Don’t get fooled again.  If there was ever a time to become an ardent student of pace, this is the race.  And, if Mine That Bird finishes better than third, I’ll move my tack to Canada in search for next year’s Kentucky Derby winner.