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HRN Original Blog:
Zipse At The Track

Triple Crown Winners: Does I’ll Have Another fit?

I'll Win Another
Sir Barton, Gallant Fox, Omaha, War Admiral, Whirlaway, Count Fleet, Assault, Citation, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and … I’ll Have Another? Can a horse that has never been sent off as the favorite by the betting public be ready to join American racing’s most illustrious honor roll? Let’s take a look at some comparisons between I’ll Have Another and the holders of racing’s Holy Grail…
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OK, so we know he’s never been favored, has this ever happened before to a Triple Crown winner?
 
No. Of the eleven Triple Crown winners, seven were favored in the Kentucky Derby, and all of them were favored in the Preakness.
 
On the bright side, I’ll Have Another enters the 2012 Belmont Stakes undefeated (4/4) in 2012. How many of the magnificent eleven can say that?
 
Six out of the eleven can. While Omaha, Whirlaway, Assault, Citation, and Secretariat all suffered defeats in their season of magic before the Belmont, Sir Barton, (3/3) Gallant Fox, (3/3) War Admiral, (4/4) Count Fleet, (4/4) Seattle Slew, (5/5) and Affirmed (5/5) all entered the Belmont Stakes perfect in their Triple Crown season.
 
Some say I’ll Have Another’s times aren’t up to snuff, but how do his 2:01 4/5 in the Derby and 1:55 4/5 stack up against those who’ve swept the crown?
 
Quite well actually; only Secretariat, Affirmed, and Whirlaway were able to run faster at Churchill Downs, while in the Preakness, only Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed were able to run a faster *1 3/16 miles.
 
Taking the time factor one step further, I’ll Have Another ran 1:47 4/5 in winning the Santa Anita Derby, his last race before the Run for the Roses. Have any of the Triple Crown winners run faster in their last prep before the Derby?
 
No. The closest was Affirmed who ran 1:48 1/5 while winning the Hollywood Derby.
 
Our 2012 hope finished second in a graded stake as a juvenile, but was not able to win a stakes race at two. Will this fact preclude him from completing the deal on June 9?
 
No, but only two (Sir Barton and Omaha) failed to win a stakes races at two. In I’ll Have Another’s defense, he ran in only three races as a juvenile, while the average number of two-year-old starts among the Crown champions, was 8.9 starts.
 
I’ll Have Another now sports a lifetime record of 5 wins in 7 starts. Are these numbers good enough to become the first Triple Crown winner in 34 years?
 
A winning perecentage of .714 puts I’ll Have Another ahead of six of the Triple Crown winners, with only Seattle Slew 100%, Citation .889, Affirmed .857, Secretariat .786, and Count Fleet .737 being better. Five lifetime wins meanwhile, would only place I’ll Have Another ahead of Sir Barton 3, and Omaha 4, while matching the five of Gallant Fox.
 
The popular son of Flower Alley has never raced at Belmont Park before; has this been common among the Triple Crown winners?
 
Unfortunately, no … Of the eleven horses to have swept the crown, all of them had at least one previous race at Belmont Park before The Test of a Champion.
 
It looks like he will face a larger Belmont field than any Triple Crown winner has faced; can he handle it?
 
Field size has not hurt him before ... Only War Admiral was part of a 20-horse Derby field, like I'll Have Another, and only Sir Barton had to deal with a larger Preakness field (12) than I'll Have Another's 11.
 
It’s been 34 years … isn’t racing due for a Triple Crown winner?
 
Yes! Previous gaps between Crown sweeps were: 11, 5, 2, 4, 2, 3, 2, 25, 4 and 1 year respectively … It is definitely time.
 
What does it all mean? Not much. I’ll Have Another knows not of all this history. All he knows is it is his job to get the wire first. Let’s hope he can do it on June 9!
 

 

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Older Comments about Triple Crown Winners: Does I’ll Have Another fit?...

who is sir barton?and a 147at sanita track thats average,i like how you think that will make my odds higher
It depends,if O"Neal gives him his scooby snacks,(illegal medication) why yes!
ingore that comment down below.HE Come a long way, I'll have another was not even in the talk of winning the derby and he won it. Then he had doubters when coming in the prekaness stakes, and now he'l prove all his doubters wrong in the belmont. trust me.
HE Come a long way, I'll have another was even in the talk of winning the derby and he won it. Then he had doubters when coming in the prekaness stakes, and now he'l prove all his doubters wrong in the belmont. trust me.
You people are crazy. Even if he is the best 3 yr old in the country, he still has to race 12 other that are reallllly good and are FRESH. I hope IHA wins, but 30% chance is more realistic, thats still probably a favorite when all said and done.
until the field is confrimed, the THEORETICAL about what will happen is no better than a guess
At 1 1/4 mile or more this 3yo stands alone. He should win the Belmont but what makes the sport great is that great horses do sometimes lose. It would be disappointment but on a fast track and fairly clean trip I'd give him a 68% chance of winning.
i keep saying that to beat a freak like bodemeister twice takes a supercolt;; barring traffic issues and a freak incident, he wins by dalylight;; single on top in super and hi5 if available;;gl
you bet your tail end he does
Also one of the best handicap runners.
Sir Barton was the first TC winner 1919

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Meet Brian Zipse 

Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing since birth. Taken to the races at a very young age, he has been lucky enough to see all the greats in person from Secretariat and Ruffian through Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Before coming to the Nation, Brian displayed his love for the sport through the development of his horse racing website, which quickly became one of the most popular blogs in the game. 
  
As Managing Editor of Horse Racing Nation, Brian authors a daily column as Zipse at the Track, or ZATT for short, and adds his editorial flare to the overall content of the website. Brian also serves on the the Board of Directors of ReRun Thoroughbred Adoption and is a Vox Populi committee member. 
  
A graduate of DePaul University, Brian lives in Suburban Chicago with his wife Candice and daughter Kendra, where he is a professional golf instructor when he is not following the horses.