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HRN Original Blog:
Zipse At The Track

The Time is Now for St. John’s River

St. John’s River has been knocking on the door for most of 2011, tomorrow is her time to kick it in. In a race that includes two-time grade 1 winner, It’s Tricky, Kentucky Oaks victor, Plum Pretty, Queen’s Plate heroine, Inglorious, and Black-Eyed Susan winner, Royal Delta, why am I expecting the filly without a big, breakout victory to be the one who wins the Alabama, the most important race so far this year for three-year-old fillies? My simple answer is distance, distance, and more distance.

The daughter of distance loving sire Include, St. John’s River did not begin her career until last December for Louisiana based trainer Andrew Leggio. She won smartly in her second start in a Fair Grounds maiden race in January, and has been swimming with the big girls ever since. Despite the quick ascent to the best races of her division, only finish lines that came a bit too soon, have prevented her from being on quite a roll.

On March 26, in her fourth lifetime start, St. John’s River closed like a female freight train to narrowly miss in the Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks at odds of nearly 8-1. That 1 1/16 mile race resulted in a second place finish, but served as a perfect prep for a trip to Churchill Downs.

On May 6, she was sent off at odds of 16-1 in the Kentucky Oaks. St. John’s River stumbled badly out of the gate from an extreme outside post position, before rallying boldly under the twin spires. At the wire, Plum Pretty held on by a desperate neck to win the female counterpart to the Kentucky Derby. That day, the distance was 1 1/8 miles.

After the big effort in Louisville, Leggio decided to give his new star some time off to hopefully be at her best for a big summer/fall campaign that would conclude with a championship.

“I like a lot of time, especially with these young fillies,” Leggio said.

Her return to the races came on July 9 in the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks. Against an admittedly far weaker field that she will see in the Alabama, the Dede McGehee owned bay filly battled with a slow early pace at a distance (1 1/16 miles) too short for her to be at her best. She still was able to gain her first stakes win, but just barely. St. John’s River got the win on the shadow of the wire, but moreover, she got a perfect prep for tomorrow’s showdown at Saratoga.
 
Leggio spoke of her lead-up to the Alabama, “She’s got three seconds, and with a little luck we could have won all three of those races. Hopefully 1 ¼ miles will be to her liking. She always makes a big run, and, hopefully, she’ll do the same thing next week.”
Yes Andrew, she will appreciate the distance. She is bred for the classic distance top-to-bottom. Unlike some horses that can close fast on shorter races, but flatten out at the longer distances, St. John’s River is a filly that is crying out for ten furlongs.
And tomorrow she gets it. She also faces an extremely talented group of five other sophomore fillies who also are looking to move to the head of their class with a big win in the Alabama, but there can only be winner.

The narrow losses are in the rear-view mirror, at the 1 ¼ miles of the historic Alabama Stakes, the time is now for St. John’s River.
 
[How will the Alabama shake up the HRN Power Rankings for 3yo Fillies?]
 
 

 

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Older Comments about The Time is Now for St. John’s River...

Not sure if it will be a speed duel, but just as long as they keep each other busy for the opening mile.
I just finished handicapping this one and St. Johns is the best bet. Like you said the distance will suit her well and Plum Pretty and It's Tricky will probably get into a speed duel opening it up for her to make the late charge.
CDH. Recognize.
Well said cpsoren121 ;-)
The Alabama distance seems to fit SJR oerfectly!
Brian, you know what you feed a dray horse in the morning if you want a day's work out of her? Just enough so he knows she's hungry. Seriously, come on Brian. Why don't you take a look around. You know what's about to happen, what they're up against. They could use a good jockey like you, you're turning your back on them. I just need to say though that I liked you so much better when you were just a bug boy. If you wanna be an interior decorator now that's none of my business. But some of us still need this sport. Now you listen to me! This is my last shot at a winner and for some of the younger jocks it could be their only shot. I don't know what happened to you.
It's a very interesting field ... if the race were at Woodbine, I'd be with you in making Inglorious my top pick.
This is shaping up as one of the best races of the year --I'm thinking Inglorious, but St. John's River is scary enough that my main bet will be a healthy exacta box of the two...

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Meet Brian Zipse 

Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing since birth. Taken to the races at a very young age, he has been lucky enough to see all the greats in person from Secretariat and Ruffian through Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Before coming to the Nation, Brian displayed his love for the sport through the development of his horse racing website, which quickly became one of the most popular blogs in the game. 
  
As Managing Editor of Horse Racing Nation, Brian authors a daily column as Zipse at the Track, or ZATT for short, and adds his editorial flare to the overall content of the website. Brian also serves on the the Board of Directors of ReRun Thoroughbred Adoption and is a Vox Populi committee member. 
  
A graduate of DePaul University, Brian lives in Suburban Chicago with his wife Candice and daughter Kendra, where he is a professional golf instructor when he is not following the horses.