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HRN Original Blog:
Zipse At The Track

The 2011 Kentucky Derby – Dialed In's the Favorite

Dialed In gets past Shackleford to take the Florida Derby
Zipse’s Kentucky Derby Daily – Day 18

With only 18 days until the big day, I offer my current projection on how the 20 horse field for this year’s Kentucky Derby will look including their odds. These odds are only how I believe they will be bet and have no relation to my own choices. A handful of horses on this list still may not go, including Uncle Mo, The Factor, Santiva, Animal Kingdom, and J P’s Gusto. So horses like Silver Medallion, Watch Me Go, Shackleford, Twinspired, and Anthony’s Cross can still earn a birth to the big show, but as it stands today …

 
Dialed In           Julien Leparoux        6-1


 
Uncle Mo             John Velazquez        7-1


 
Nehro            Corey Nakatani         8-1 

             
 
Mucho Macho Man        Rajiv Maragh         10-1


 
Midnight Interlude      Victor Espinoza        10-1


 
Archarcharch          Jon Court             12-1   

      
 
Toby’s Corner         Eddie Castro         12-1


 
The Factor            Martin Garcia          12-1


 
Pants On Fire         Rosie Napravnik       15-1


 
Soldat                Alan Garcia            15-1


 
Master of Hounds       Ryan Moore       20-1


 
Jaycito               Martin Garcia          20-1


 
Animal Kingdom           Alan Garcia             20-1


 
Comma To The Top       Corey Nakatani         25-1

                         
Brilliant Speed           Joel Rosario                   25-1      

                  
Stay Thirsty         John Velazquez        25-1  

           
Santiva             Mike Smith       25-1   


 
Twice the Appeal      C. Santiago-Reyes       30-1


 
Decisive Moment      Kerwin Clark         40-1


 
J P’s Gusto          Ramon Dominguez          40-1

 

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Older Comments about The 2011 Kentucky Derby – Dialed In's the Favorite...

It´s gonna win another 30 to 1
I guess all missed my being facetious in suggesting BZ pick a differet horse! I do feel vindicated since I have supported him from the get-go, along with Mucho Macho Man.
Nehro
Do you Think Corey Nakatani will ride Comma to the top or Nehro?
Wide open.
I like the case made for Dialed In. Love Zito and if he's all teary-eyed over the FL win maybe that tell's you something. Unfortunately, the price in the Derby is probably not going to be good enough given how random a good trip can be. It's hard to ignore Uncle Mo. Maybe there's distance concerns, but note he did not receive much encouragement in the final strides of the Wood. Must respect his BC win at CD. Something Street Sense and Super Saver also had going for them. Nehro looks like a gem but I'm afraid the word is out on him and the value won't be there. Will also have to get through somehow. For a price, I may end up on Soldat. 15-1 isn't bad for a classy horse that's won in the slop. He rated on turf but seems to want the lead on dirt. Doesn't usually bode well for the Derby, but with some speed falling out of the race maybe he can secure a good trip. Not sure just yet where I'll end up, but in a crapshoot like the Derby I'd prefer to get 10-1 or better. Post draw and weather are two major factors we'll have to wait and see on.
I think very few people understad training a horse. Zito has brought him to this race ready to uncork a wild one. His allowance second was perfect. His run against the bias that day was measured and without the wip. I just hope the haters keep hating ....... I could use the money.
I was one that was never on the 'Mo wagon' What you do as a 2 YO has NO relation to the Derby Trail. Uncle Mo has only run twice as a 3 YO. Look at those races, neither impressive at all. The fact that he is a front runner cripples his chances of winning The Derby even if he does prove to be as good as he was when 2. I hope everybody goes and puts some $$ on Mo. Somehow I think the Racing Savoy people of this site will place better Bets.
well for me i like arch3, but i've liked this horse sense he was so far at the bottom. plus i like arch, sometimes sires stick with ya. for mo, i see no real problem with him everyone jumped off soon as he loss of fear of his sire, but mo never even ran just pudded along noone pushing him. he never was really put away, just passed at the end. mmm is one of my favorites to haha go figure i love macho again, not his sire same papa. i like soldat so what if he clunked he has the highest t rathing so really makes him a threat. those are my picks.
M/L for the Derby! Seems like a near impossible task, but this is rather good (better than what we'll actually see by Battaglia). I sort of feel that some horses might go a little higher than their M/L's, but you can't get a longshot over 50/1 in the Derby anymore because of the enormity of the audience along with the fact that many of the bettors aren't educated on what or even how to handicap a horse race. They simply pluck out their favirote name or number. I do hope Animal Kingdom will go over 20/1. He's not my top pick, but he does have a very nice look to him. If he trains well over dirt (a huge question mark), he may be worth a hard look. Nehro is loved by those in the know for horse racing, but again due to the audience betting the KY Derby, he won't be 8/1. I'm predicting he'll be over 10/1, and if you look at the pp's that seems like the right decision. I think he's uber talented, but the general couple times a year bettor isn't going to know about him.
25-1 on Comma To the Topp i'll take it! and 30-1 on Twice the appeal man i was hoping for 50-1
Good point sjuwill! One of the ESPN writers said something to the effect that with such a wide open Derby...just gimme the one that Calvin's on!
Nehro's improving, there's no question. He seems like a good prospect to me, just on that alone.
I had money on E Alex as well man I always believe the hype as well lol . Now Nehro is Hyped ahh What to do
p.s. I'm glad AAA didn't get more respect because those odds were a gift for his backers!
I think all of the hype about horses makes handicapping more difficult. But it's also what makes handicapping the Kentucky Derby more fun. As for the Arkansas Derby, hype made Elite Alex 6-1 (or close) and AAA 25-1. He deserved more respect, but I'm glad he didn't get it. Still, I lost $20 on Alex on account of being sentimental. I never don't bet a horse I want to win. Hopeful Alex improves later or finds his spot. And back to the topic: Yes! It's wide open. Good bettors Derby.
Very very wide open right now after Mo showed vulnerability to his superiority. I want to narrow my choices down now, but just can't.
Wow what a wide open field. I bet the winning time is slower than 2:02. Why is it that horse race times have not improved over the years?
  • organichombre · Horses are too expensive and too gingerly trained. Hard work with a true athlete generates the fastest times whether it's horses, track guys or cheetah's that are hungry! · 1192 days ago
Brian, great list, charts and graphics. I am not sure MI and MMM deserve highe ranking than Arch3. Of course, I'm not surprised many handicappers are jumping on the Nehro bandwagon after 2 ever so close. As a former owner I've seen so many horses running almost at the end of the race to get second but could somehow never get up there to win. I correctly labeled Elite Alex as a "sucker" horse, and now I think Nehro is best at the bottom of my exotics..
  • organichombre · Nehro gets the 10f w/o difficulty...it's just a matter of which rider Asmussen and crew wind up with. Frankly, if Calvin gets up...send out the Derby party invites cuz' #4 is a happenin! · 1192 days ago
SJU, yeah, i was more replying to other comments, and not your postings. As far as who is coming out of the Fla derby anymore, how many colts are supposed to impress you from each race. Maybe 1 or 2. Same can be said for a all the preps. HRTV ranked the Arkansas Derby the deepest prep. Two horses look like they have a shot from that race. Thats the sport. Theyre 3yo's...they change every week

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Meet Brian Zipse 

Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing since birth. Taken to the races at a very young age, he has been lucky enough to see all the greats in person from Secretariat and Ruffian through Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Before coming to the Nation, Brian displayed his love for the sport through the development of his horse racing website, which quickly became one of the most popular blogs in the game. 
  
As Managing Editor of Horse Racing Nation, Brian authors a daily column as Zipse at the Track, or ZATT for short, and adds his editorial flare to the overall content of the website. Brian also serves on the the Board of Directors of ReRun Thoroughbred Adoption and is a Vox Populi committee member. 
  
A graduate of DePaul University, Brian lives in Suburban Chicago with his wife Candice and daughter Kendra, where he is a professional golf instructor when he is not following the horses.