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HRN Original Blog:
Zipse At The Track

Sunland Derby Picks: Beer Meister - Sinai - Supreme Ruler

Zipse’s Kentucky Derby Daily – Day 41

For the connections of the Sunland Derby field today, there’s $800,000 on the line, and for the bettors, there’s a nice opportunity for big payoffs with a full field and a shaky favorite. Here’s my quick take on each horse in New Mexico’s biggest race:

Ruler On Ice –One of two from the strong Kelly Breen barn. On the plus side, the son of Roman Ruler has  a sharp local work, and has been consistent of late with two wins in his last three, but the competition at Parx and Aqueduct’s winter racing is likely a few notches below this; looking elsewhere.

R Skydiver – The experienced local horse failed in the Sunland Derby prep, and in fact is 0 for his last 4. A victory here would be a total surprise.

Fusa Code – Asmussen’s other horse is well bred and improving. His Borderland Derby win over the track should be beneficial today. My issue with him is that race looks relatively weak in comparison, and he had to work hard to get the win; I’ll pass.

It’s My Party – Began his career at Saratoga, but he has been at Sunland all winter. In three races here, he has met with only modest success. I have a feeling he is better than his last, but still I don’t see him as good enough to win this.

Behold De Buy – Borderland Derby runner-up showed marked improvement with a sustained rally in his longest race to date. A repeat of that good performance is not good enough in here though.

Supreme Ruler – 20-1 on the morning line has me very interested. The son of Derby Trial winner Don’t Get Mad is the most inexperienced horse in the field, yet he already has the benefit of two strong races around two-turns. Jon Court makes the trip, and I think there is good reason to do so, as his Oaklawn form may be good enough to think he has the tools to step up today.

Sinai – The Bob Baffert trained, Southern California import looms the horse to beat in here. He has the speed to control things early, and despite his recent 5th place finish, he looks like he is coming into the race perfectly. He’s the one horse in the race who is dropping significantly in class, as he tackled some real monsters last out. Hard to see him not being involved down the lane.

Nacho Saint – Breen backers who were rewarded in yesterday’s Louisiana Derby may gravitate towards this one, who has run well enough in six tries on the East Coast. Well enough, but not outstanding. Listed as the Morning Line 2nd choice, I will take a stand against this horse who is only 1 for 6, and making the cross-country trek.

Twice the Appeal – Since switching back to dirt for trainer Jeff Bonde, this son of Successful Appeal has run three solid races, including finishing 2nd in the Turf Paradise Derby. He is not one of my top 3, but he does have longshot appeal.

Beer Meister – After three useful sprints in Arizona, this distance bred son of Pleasant Tap exploded down the Turf Paradise stretch to win their Derby at big odds. He won’t be 40-1 today, nor the 15-1 listed on the Morning Line, but he should still offer solid value as he proves the last was no fluke, and relishes the nine furlong distance. My top pick.

Astrology – Was the best juvenile in the field, but that is where the appeal ends for me. He needs to overcome an outside post, longer than planned layoff, and only moderate works in preparation for this. I was not a huge believer in him at two, so this seems like a great spot to beat him at low odds.

My Picks to Click: Beer Meister – Sinai – Supreme Ruler


 

 

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Older Comments about Sunland Derby Picks: Beer Meister - Sinai - Supreme Ruler...

More suprises ... Uncle Mo's competition is looking weaker all the time.
I thought Breen had his day in the sun yesterday? ;-)
Best of Luck to the Kelly Breen crew out in Sunny New Mexico!
I am embarassed to say I missed it Joe, but since you gave out those 4 I think we will both getting plenty of thank you's tonight!
'Fess up, Brian. You were listening to my picks on the Bortstein show this AM, weren't ya? ;-) Those are 3 of the 4 horses that I'm using in the p3. The other is Twice the Appeal, who you say is intrigung. Guess great minds think alike...and so do ours ;-)

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Meet Brian Zipse 

Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing since birth. Taken to the races at a very young age, he has been lucky enough to see all the greats in person from Secretariat and Ruffian through Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Before coming to the Nation, Brian displayed his love for the sport through the development of his horse racing website, which quickly became one of the most popular blogs in the game. 
  
As Managing Editor of Horse Racing Nation, Brian authors a daily column as Zipse at the Track, or ZATT for short, and adds his editorial flare to the overall content of the website. Brian also serves on the the Board of Directors of ReRun Thoroughbred Adoption and is a Vox Populi committee member. 
  
A graduate of DePaul University, Brian lives in Suburban Chicago with his wife Candice and daughter Kendra, where he is a professional golf instructor when he is not following the horses.