How many handicappers does it take to nail down the all-graded stakes Pick 4 on Super Saturday at Belmont Park? Only two, if their names are Matt Shifman and Brian Zipse. Enjoy our combined analysis on the four big races...
Race 7 – The Vosburgh
Shifman: If Sean Avery is back in top condition then the
Vosburgh is his race to win. At his best he is faster then the rest of the
field and I like the way he rated a couple lengths behind in his return to the
races at Belmont on September 8th. His
history of injuries makes its impossible to use him as a single in the Pick 4.
I have to include Poseidon’s Warrior and Justin Philip as both of them had nice
closing efforts in their most recent starts and they appreciate a bit of
moisture in the track. I will also include the three year-old Fort Loudon. He
is five for five at the six furlong distance and he ran a nice race just to
finish second in the King’s Bishop.
Zipse: Sean Avery is one
talented sprinter. Neither rain, nor snow, nor injuries, nor extended layoffs
seem to keep him away from the winner's circle. Like you, Matt, I see him as
clearly the horse to beat, but my second pick is one that you didn't mention,
and that is the Portuguese cash machine. Caixa Eletronica has much better form
at Belmont over his career than Saratoga, and with a good pace set-up, he
should be rolling into the picture late. Interesting that Justin Phillip is the
morning line favorite despite the fact that Caixa Eletronica has beaten him
each time they've raced including last year's Vosburgh and this year's True
North.
Race 8 – The Flower Bowl
Shifman: I am a bit
puzzled by the morning line odds in the Flower Bowl. Chad Brown’s Zagora made a
dazzling move down the stretch to win the Balston Spa at Saratoga. I see her being
below the 7/2 morning line. 5/2 favorite Dream Peace ran very well in the Diana
to finish second behind the great Winter Memories. She figures to run even
better in her second start for Chad Brown. I don’t see 3-1 as realistic odds
for I’m A Dreamer, not when she is facing these New York horses, who figure to
take the money. Hessonite is one gutsy New York-bred. Does she have a chance to continue her winning
streak at 20-1?
Zipse: I agree that
Zagora will be the favorite, but I also believe that she is quite vulnerable
given the added distance, and promise of less than a firm turf course. You
touched on my favorite longshot of the day, Hessonite. I really think that she
may have gotten this good, and some give in the turf course does not bother her
one bit. Still, it's a wide open race, and all of the Euros must be respected,
as does the recent form of the speedy Hit it Rich. I'll be going six deep in
this one.
Race 9 – The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic
Shifman: Many experts
consider Point of Entry “the best turf horse in the country”. I see him winning
this race and continuing his domination in the same kind of way that Cape
Blanco did last year.
Zipse: Point of Entry
stands over this field and is the obvious single of the sequence, and that is
what I will do, but … Little Mike alone on a dawdling pace, with Razor Ramon
Dominguez in the saddle, scares the heck out of me. I'll probably have a little
saver bet on him outside of the Pick 4
Race 10 – The Jockey Club Gold Cup
Shifman: Great field in
the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but as I wrote earlier here, this race is all about
Bill Mott. Ron the Greek and Flat Out are the horses to beat. The distance is
right and the time is right for Ron the Greek to show his stuff. Even though
Flat Out hasn’t won since last year’s JCGC, his 108 BSF in the Whitney was
impressive as was his :59.4 workout on the training track at Saratoga. One of
the Mott runners will win this race. I
would be foolish to not include Fort Larned in tickets, although I don’t see
him running another one of those dazzling races. Neither horse nor jockey has ever raced at
Belmont.
Zipse: Mott certainly does have a strong hand in Ron
the Greek and Flat Out, but they both might find themselves at the mercy of a
slow pace and a horse who somehow remains under-appreciated in Fort Larned.
This horse has proven several times this year that he is for real, and I expect
him to do it once again tomorrow. If he runs his race, and is not bothered for
too long by San Pablo, I think there is only one horse with the potential to
run by him, and that is the stronger half of the Mott entry, Ron the Greek.
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