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HRN Original Blog:
Zipse At The Track

Mac the Man keys late pick 4 at Turfway Park

In many ways today’s $550,000 Spiral Stakes looks like a wide-open affair. Both of the favorites, Uncaptured and Balance the Books, have not run yet this year, and there are plenty of colts in here that look like they have the potential to step up and earn themselves a one-way ticket to the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Further investigation, though, leads me to the rather clear fact that this is a race with very little speed. Therefore, the speed of the race would seem to have an excellent tactical advantage, and his name is Mac the Man. A winner of three straight, the son of El Corredor has been a terror since arriving to Turfway Park last December. A dominating winner over Turfway Park’s Polytrack surface in each of his three starts here, Mac the Man also was fitted with a glue-on shoe after coming back with a sore hoof four starts back. A two-time stakes winner, Mac the Man is making a large step up and class today, but his numbers fit with these, and if he can control the pace, as expected, he should be very tough to catch. I would expect him to be a little lower than his 10-1 morning line odds, but hopefully not significantly so. 
 
Race 7 – Maiden Special Weight
 
Not particularly the most promising of maiden fields you will ever see, the #2 Sir Squire and #6 Impassable Canyon appear to be the standouts. Sir Squire has the best form of any of the horses that have run, has a decent run over this surface against a next-out winner, and sports a sharp drill over the track. Impassable Canyon is a well-bred son of Tapit, has a series of solid works over the track, and should be ready to run for the successful duo of trainer, Michael Maker, and rider, Rosie Napravnik.
 
Race 8 – Rushaway Stakes
 
#9 Crop Report looks to have this field over a barrel. Very well regarded by his connections, Team Valor and Graham Motion, the son of Medaglia d’Oro made a good impression in his U.S debut when finishing a fast closing third at Gulfstream Park. He gets blinkers today and with plenty of speed to run at should take control of this race early in the lane, provided he handles the Polytrack. If he doesn’t #2 Divine Ambition, coming off a sharp seven furlong win at Gulfstream, looks like the most likely winner.
 
Race 9 – Bourbonette Oaks
 
This race is all about #5 Pure Fun. If the big filly runs her race it looks like the rest are only competing for second money. A rousing winner of the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet last time, Pure Fun makes her 2013 debut today in preparation for the Kentucky Oaks. Garrett Gomez comes in just to ride her, and the pair also should have an honest early pace to run at this afternoon. If there is a big upset in the Bourbonette, look for the #10 Broken Spell to turn the trick. Stuck on dirt the last several starts, she had excellent form on turf and synthetics as a juvenile.
 
Race 10 – Spiral Stakes 
 
While #7 Mac the Man will be the main play, the Spiral is a race that requires coverage. Of the rest, I like the classy #3 Uncaptured, and Bill Mott’s #5 My Name is Michael next best. A five time stakes winner, Uncaptured should be able to stay close to Mac the Man early, and if the top pick shows any chinks in his armor, this one should be there to pounce. Meanwhile, My Name is Michael ran a solid race in his dirt, and seasonal debut for his new trainer in the Sam F. Davis. He also has solid synthetic form as a juvenile, so any improvement in his second start for Mott makes him a big threat today.
 
The Play
 
50-cent Pick 4 – 2, 6 / 2, 9 / 1, 4, 5, 9, 10, 12 / 3, 5, 7 = $36
 
50-cent Pick 4 - 2, 6 / 9 / 5 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11 = $8
 
50-cent Pick 4 - 2, 6 / 2, 9 / 5, 10 / 3, 5, 7 = $12
 
50-cent Pick 4 – ALL / 9 / 5 / 3, 5, 7 = $18 

 

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Older Comments about Mac the Man keys late pick 4 at Turfway Park...

Mac the Man folded like an accordion. He was out classed by that field anyway.
Black Onyx!
I have one rule that I never violate---> Bet what ZIPSE is betting! (By the way all of his tickets are alive after the first two legs.)
I can't see Mac the Man hitting the board in here. Just my opinion.
*horse's form*
Funny how a horses form that looks so-so gets a lot prettier when he goes from 11 to 1 to 3 to 1 in the last minute to post.
To make an uniformed wager (without up to the minute odds information) is the mark of a rookie
Yeah, the odds board will sometimes talk to those who listen.
people with phoney betting schemes deserve to have light shined upon them.
Unless posting my picks in advance (Play of the day) here, I usually bet with a couple minutes to post.
I've cashed a lot of win tickets by allowing the "One Minute to Post" action sway me in the right direction.
The odds board, the MARKET for this game, is in constant flux right up until post time. ANY LOGICAL investor realizing that one aspect of the game is not known until LATE in the contest, creates a series of potential wagers, keeps them in separte file in line with the wagering system. IF the odds make an attractive move one way or the other, the plascity of the MARKET dictate where or even IF a wager is made LONG AFTER any heirarchial deliberations of handicapping order has been finished.......My wagers are made in the last 30 seconds before a race and are totally dependent upon what investment opportunities the CROWD gives or does not give
Not claiming tv a fraud, rather showing him how annoying it is to be called a "fraud" on every post without reason.
You know what I don't get tv.... You always claim me a fraud, and say I never post picks.... The issue is that I post just as much, if not more picks than you. And, I haven't seen you cash some huge payout. From now on, I'll just call you "fraud" instead of tv.
Today's not much betting. Just betting the graded stakes for fun and enjoying them.
then you are missing out on soem very good ones a littel venues
Only betting four races today, anyway (Tokyo City, Spiral, Sunland Derby and Oaks)
Mac the Man might get a real nice price alone on the lead. I'm going to play a exacta box 1-3-7... Then $3 across on both Balance the Books and Mac the Man. Only a $15 bet.
I like Balance the Books-Uncaptured-Mac The Man. Not betting much though, maybe $10-$20 on this race... Good luck to all!
Not liking Balance the Books, Mac the Man / Black Onyx / Capo bastone

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Meet Brian Zipse 

Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing since birth. Taken to the races at a very young age, he has been lucky enough to see all the greats in person from Secretariat and Ruffian through Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Before coming to the Nation, Brian displayed his love for the sport through the development of his horse racing website, which quickly became one of the most popular blogs in the game. 
  
As Managing Editor of Horse Racing Nation, Brian authors a daily column as Zipse at the Track, or ZATT for short, and adds his editorial flare to the overall content of the website. Brian also serves on the the Board of Directors of ReRun Thoroughbred Adoption and is a Vox Populi committee member. 
  
A graduate of DePaul University, Brian lives in Suburban Chicago with his wife Candice and daughter Kendra, where he is a professional golf instructor when he is not following the horses.