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HRN Original Blog:
Zipse At The Track

It’s Archarcharch in the Arkansas Derby as The Factor Fizzles

Zipse’s Kentucky Derby Daily – Day 21

Write your own headline: Local horse makes good, Nice guys finish first, Another longshot winner on the 2011 Kentucky Derby Trail. Any and all would work just fine as Archarcharch survived a furious late rally by Nehro to win the $1 million Arkansas Derby by a thrilling neck in front of a crowd of more than 62,000 at Oaklawn Park.
 
Receiving a perfectly timed ride by veteran rider, Jon Court, Archarcharch circled horses on the far turn, took the lead in mid-stretch, and then was game to the wire as the Louisiana Derby runnerup Nehro staged his second consecutive spirited rally to fall just short. For Archarcharch, it was the second stakes win this spring at Oaklawn Park, as he had previously scored in the Southwest Stakes. That day he clicked at 14-1. Today he was much higher.

Sent off as a 25-1 outsider, Archarcharch returned $52.40 to his happy backers, while the exacta with 9-1 shot Nehro, returned a healthy $416.80. Longshot Dance City outgamed Sway Away to the wire for 3rd, leading to a $1 Trifecta of $5,282.90, and a robust $1 Superfecta payout of $29,993.80.

Following the pattern of beaten favorites in recent Derby preps, the heavily favored The Factor faded in the stretch to finish a well beaten 7th after stalking the fast early pace, set by J P’s Gusto, from third.

Archarcharch completed the nine furlongs over the fast Oaklawn strip in a respectable 1:49.34. A fast early part of the race (22.54, 46.53, 1:11.22. 1:36.18) set things up nicely for the top pair to unleash their rallies. Archarcharch, a dark bay son of Arch raised his lifetime record to 3 wins in 6 starts.

Trained by Jinks Fires and owned by locals Bob and Loval Yagos, Archarcharch becomes a nice story of the little guys winning a big one. Add in winning rider Jon Court, and the Arkansas Derby winning team is a very likeable bunch indeed.

For the second consecutive weekend, what the world thought they knew about the Kentucky Derby was shaken to the core, as not only did the Arkansas Derby produce a longshot winner, but the Blue Grass at Keeneland was won by 19-1 chance, Brilliant Speed. Today’s result at Oaklawn also means that the horse oddsmaker Mike Battaglia had tabbed as the early favorite for the Derby, The Factor, is now a huge question mark for Louisville.

As for what today’s Arkansas Derby means for May 7, I believe it may be an important prep, and certainly more important than the Blue Grass. Archarcharch is a legitimately nice horse, and is bred to handle the 1 ¼ miles of the Derby. He is one of many that could end up draped in roses. The 2nd place finisher though could be even more of a threat in the Derby.

Still lightly raced, Nehro is closing full of run in these key preps. He looks all the part of a horse who should love the move to ten furlongs, which elevates him to one of the horses to beat in Louisville.
 

 

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Older Comments about It’s Archarcharch in the Arkansas Derby as The Factor Fizzles...

Archarcharch looked really good but Nehro totally stole the show for me. Two fast closing performances in a row and he really stepped up his effort this time out, he should be a great value in the Derby. I loved Alternation's run as well, should be interesting to see what he does as the year progresses.
addendum: the highly touted horse was Elite Alex who has proven to be a disgrace to his sire?
I've always liked him since inception of the KD futures pool. Unfortunately, the expert handicappers only included him once as an individual betting interest (pool2) as opposed to 3 times for the highly touted (yes, he was touted by many public handicappers!). Well, I'm not bragging, but did put a few $$$ on ARCH3 at 50-1. Nice payday if he goes on to win the real derby. If not, had a few dollars on him to win yesterday. Also, in the cliffsedge handicapping contest, I put $50 on him to win out of the $100 allocated, standings are not available yet.
It was a nice win by AAA..I would not leave him off my derby day ticket.Nehro as well..
and nehor looked damn good to that horse was flying, great at distance.
archx3 pulled through. i think prepeg won't run till september. the war front horses were to good to be true at this moment.
He didn't look like he was tiring to me. Court was simply easing the horse up at the end of the race. However, I think Nehro looked great and goes on to the derby and does big things. It was absurd that The Factor went off at 4-5, he was a horse I was very fond of but he was never a sure thing. This race was all about value and 25-1 was a steal on a good horse. And again Elite Alex takes an immense amount of money, what is wrong with you people?? Sway Away was deserving of those odds but he needs to shorten up in distance for sure. Even J P Gusto had outrageous odds at 33-1, and yes he burned himself out, but he offered value at that price.
still like the factor. seems that martin was not pushing hard enough. maybe they didn't want to force him since he's going to the derby anyway.
this horse could not stand 1-1/4 miles, he is tiring at 1-1/8 miles.
i can not see any other horse can beat Dialed In or Nehro in the Kentucky Derby, may be Animal Kingdom in third or Master of Hounds , so i will put superfecta between those 4 horses.
i still think that in the kentucky derby will be between 2 Mineshaft's son Dialed In and Nehro which i predicted weeks ago.
Uncle Mo is head and shoulders above this group, hope more people forget about him, once the heavy favorite for the derby now looks like you can get a good price on a horse once considered a freak
If the past is prologue, and improving horses are the new way to pick winners, then my second choice is Mucho Macho Man....really only TWO he doesn't turn 3 until June, and he may bring a surprise of his own on May 7 as he grows up and flexes his muscles!
Premier Pegasus was my pick for Derby and possibly Triple Crown. Anyone hear how surgery went for him?
I like Nehro and Dialed In for the Derby. Don't count out Uncle Mo thou... too bad PrePeg is out...
I think Sway Away moved alittle too soon in the backstretch. After his debut and this race I would say he is a one run horse is best held back and then making a late move
Sway Away looks like more of a miler at this point ... Nehro could fare very well ... Archarcharch is easy to root for, congrats JamminPark!
I said earlier at your pre-race Ark Derby page that my dart board is looking better and better as a handicappig tool! I'm sticking with my fave Dialed In for May 7...no reason to abandon him....he still looks as good as any to me.
I think Baffert said something happened to The Factor's palate..was he being held back?
I was disappointed the way Sway Away faded. He looked like a good thing turning for home.

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Meet Brian Zipse 

Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing since birth. Taken to the races at a very young age, he has been lucky enough to see all the greats in person from Secretariat and Ruffian through Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Before coming to the Nation, Brian displayed his love for the sport through the development of his horse racing website, which quickly became one of the most popular blogs in the game. 
  
As Managing Editor of Horse Racing Nation, Brian authors a daily column as Zipse at the Track, or ZATT for short, and adds his editorial flare to the overall content of the website. Brian also serves on the the Board of Directors of ReRun Thoroughbred Adoption and is a Vox Populi committee member. 
  
A graduate of DePaul University, Brian lives in Suburban Chicago with his wife Candice and daughter Kendra, where he is a professional golf instructor when he is not following the horses.