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HRN Original Blog:
Zipse At The Track

I Like Nehro Because …

Zipse’s Kentucky Derby Daily – Day 13

The Chaos Theory – “You hit a pool ball, and it starts to carom off the sides of the table. In theory, that's a fairly simple system, almost a Newtonian system. Since you can know the force imparted to the ball, and the mass of the ball, and you can calculate the angles at which it will strike the walls, you can predict the future behavior of the ball. In theory, you could predict the behavior of the ball far into the future, as it keeps bouncing from side to side. You could predict where it will end up three hours from now, in theory.  But in fact, it turns out you can't predict more than a few seconds into the future. Because almost immediately very small effects-imperfections in the surface of the ball, tiny indentations in the wood of the table-start to make a difference. And it doesn't take long before they overpower your careful calculations. So it turns out that this simple system of a pool ball on a table has unpredictable behavior.” As described by Ian Malcolm, from Michael Crichton’s Jurassic Park.

Ian Malcolm was a smart man. Anyone trying to handicap the winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby all spring knows he was on to something with the Chaos Theory. These horses, made of flesh and blood, simply are not doing what we expect them to do one week to the next. Having said that, I blog about the horses, and more specifically, for the past few months I blog about the 2011 Kentucky Derby, therefore I feel I need to make some tough decisions.

I follow them, I watch them, and I handicap them. No matter that I can’t confidently throw out almost any of the twenty horses that will run; I am prepared to select one horse as my top pick for the Derby. I owe that to my readers. The colt I have landed on is Nehro.

I like Nehro because he seems to be approaching the Derby in the right way. The Zayat Stables’ runner was unheard of a few months back. After a few non-descript efforts to begin his career, the Steve Asmussen trainee woke up. He won a late February maiden coming from way back to win by 4 ½ at Oaklawn Park to get things rolling. He announced himself with a bang-up 2nd place finish in the Louisiana Derby, again rallying stoutly in the stretch to get himself in the picture in the million dollar race. For his final prep, Nehro closed sharply on the outside to just miss to Archarcharch in the Arkansas Derby. Each race looks better than the last, and only the wire coming too soon in Arkansas cost him victory in possibly the strongest of all the Derby preps. Any further improvement for the son of Mineshaft would make him awfully tough to beat in Kentucky.

I like Nehro because it looks like ten furlongs will be right up his alley. His sire Mineshaft was a champion who had no problem at the classic distance, dominating his foes in the Suburban and Jockey Club Gold Cup. As strongly as Nehro has finished in each of his nine furlong efforts, I have more confidence in him handling the demanding 1 ¼ mile distance of the Derby than any other horse in the race.

I like Nehro because he reminds me of past winners of the Kentucky Derby. Well bred horses like Ferdinand, Alysheba, and Strike the Gold did not enter the first Saturday in May with sparkling records. But like Nehro, they arrived in Louisville with the look of being  improving, powerful athletes, who would finish strongly and flourish at the extended distance of the Derby.

And if those reasons are not enough …

I like Nehro because I don’t particularly love anyone else in this field.


 

 

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Older Comments about I Like Nehro Because …...

That long stretch at CD won't hurt his chances either. I think he has a decent shot considering his improving pattern and the increase in distance. Picking this years winner is going to be tough any way you look at it. The main saving grace being the price should be right on whoever you settle on. It will be a fun race to watch with the outcome so up for grabs. That being said a serious wager on this years Derby seems out of the question unless you're just a gambler. Good luck to all.
Since Tiz Blessed didnt stay healthy, Im going with Nehro and Midnight Interlude... Nehro can sit anywhere and put in the same type of run in the final 1/4th. lets hope I can still get 10-1 on him.
put money on both, you will be o.k. then, that's what i am going to do.
Dialed In have 2 graded race in his bag, Nehro has'nt, so whatever mistake did in Florida Derby, Dialed In and Julien Lepraoux have realised that, it was Leparoux little mistake in timings for piloting Dialed In to the weir, i am pretty sure that in the Derby ypou guy will see differnt tactics by Leparoux, you can't denied that Dialed In ran against all cassic horses and speed. this horse has onlt credential to will the treble crown, not Nehro.Although i like Nehro.
you do'nt have to tell methat Nehro is going to win the KD, i forecast middle of March in HRN that the Derby race will be between Dialed In and Nehro, so both have a chance to win the derby, i am gioving Nehro little bit higher notch than Dialed In, dialed In is the most powerful horse than Nehro, but because of the Florida Derby slow timing in last 2 furlong, i will giving little bit more preferance to Nehro, but my selection still Dialed In first and Nehro second. i am 100% confidence over Dialed In.
you do'nt have to tell methat Nehro is going to win the KD, i forecast middle of March in HRN that the Derby race will be between Dialed In and Nehro, so both have a chance to win the derby, i am gioving Nehro little bit higher notch than Dialed In, dialed In is the most powerful horse than Nehro, but because of the Florida Derby slow timing in last 2 furlong, i will giving little bit more preferance to Nehro, but my selection still Dialed In first and Nehro second. i am 100% confidence over Dialed In.
Ilike him too..but I also like AAA..MMM..POF.I haven't settled on any one horse..YIKES
i like NEHRO because my dad taught Steve Asmussen dad keith how to ride in south dakota in the 50's park jefferson race track
Like Nehro too. He has a kick like Dialed In. I think those 2 will show that when they make the turn for home...ala Ice Box last year.
Certainly like him in my top 5, as for winning, pedigree concerns me about his distance. One more thing… which race did he win??? I will agree that he does look good. Arch3 seems to have good form and the pedigree. Just don’t know if he is fast enough. (Also like DI, MMM, soldat, and UM)
Nehro has consistently shown that he'll be coming late for a big impressive run after the race has been decided. Be sure to have him in third on your trifecta tickets.
i like nehro because he charging at the wire....not a dual qualifier
Loved the Ark Derby....definitely, Nehro is the winner if the race had been 1 1/4 mi! He flat ran down Archarcharch! Just a beautiful run.
He's a Mineshaft colt, just like Dialed In....they are related. Would be kind of fun for them to come in 1-2!
Nice post - something to think about.
You have a good chance to be correct, mhswinds. Uncle Mo is scary, Vivian, and you know what I thought of him last year, but he simply has too many questions to be my top pick.
Nice run....and just the kind of run that usually wins the Derby. Nice choice Brian, but I will be real curious to see how Uncle Mo figures into the mix. That is, if he ever gets over whatever is supposed to be bothering him.
Nehro won't win.

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Meet Brian Zipse 

Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing since birth. Taken to the races at a very young age, he has been lucky enough to see all the greats in person from Secretariat and Ruffian through Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Before coming to the Nation, Brian displayed his love for the sport through the development of his horse racing website, which quickly became one of the most popular blogs in the game. 
  
As Managing Editor of Horse Racing Nation, Brian authors a daily column as Zipse at the Track, or ZATT for short, and adds his editorial flare to the overall content of the website. Brian also serves on the the Board of Directors of ReRun Thoroughbred Adoption and is a Vox Populi committee member. 
  
A graduate of DePaul University, Brian lives in Suburban Chicago with his wife Candice and daughter Kendra, where he is a professional golf instructor when he is not following the horses.