I sure hope you are right about Dialed In! Every horse I have rooted for (so far) has lost! They did good early on, until I got on their bandwagon, and then they have lost! I'm hoping that eventually my luck has to change .... even a blind hog can find an acorn once in a while! What worries me about hanging onto your coattail is you blew it in the G'Stream Oaks, so I hope my bad luck doesn't rub off on you! BTW, I think I actually undertand what you meant in your explanation aboout Mo being trained for the TC more than just the first Sat in May. I'm certainly not advanced enough to know if you are being bold or not! But I will be around to help you celebrate if it turns out to be true! If Mo is the horse to give us a TC, I can root for that outcome. Short term and at least in the FL Derby, I'm sticking with D.I.!
Can't wait for Sunday to see where Stay Thirsty stands against that tough field!
The only BC Juvenile winner to be favored in the Kentucky Derby in the last 15 years, was ... Street Sense, who won the Kentucky Derby, and did you say Street Sense never won again? Check your facts.
The media still continues to be the strongest reason why the BC Juvenile Champ keeps being the Derby favorite even though they dont run strong races during the actual Derby year. Uncle Mo has yet to prove himself against any real 3yos. The Timely Writer was a race written for Uncle Mo with horses that could not beat some allowance horses. It was just a work for him and there is no similarity between him and Secretariat, Bid, Smarty Jones or Afleet Alex. His sire was highly touted for the 98 Derby but unfortunately Indian Charlie did not have the ability to go the distance. Its hard to make a comment on what Uncle Mo has done because since becoming a 3yo he has done nothing. Unfortunately since BC Juvy champ is 1-26, since there is no evidence to prove greatness, I prefer not to compare him to horses that have proven mettle. Remember, Street Sense won the Derby to break the jinx but the track was soup and the real HOY Curlin went 9 wide in the final turn while Street Sense went up the rail...Street Sense never won again. When Uncle Mo runs in NY just be leary that most of the big competition is not considering running in that race...The media circus continues..Good Luck.
Mo has done nothing wrong to this point and I don't see anyone so far that seems to have progressed to his level. Unless he does something wrong in the Wood, he stays my number 1...followed by Soldat,Dialed In. The rest could all alternate after that for me.
I saw the Rebel, yes ... Mike, as far as on the list, I suppose the Florida Derby will have the most impact on who will be considered the top challengers to the top few. As you can see I like Dialed In best of that bunch right now. I think Sway Away may run much better in Arkansas which could send him up the list ... Anthony's Cross and Mr. Commons could also move way up with a big performance in the SA Derby ... As far as off the list, I am intrigued by the Team Valor pair of Animal Kingdom and Crimson China, but they would need to make huge strides in the next 6 weeks to make any noise.
Brian, on this list who do you feel are the top three horses that you have a feeling will move up on this list after all the final major preps are run? Who are your top "dark horses" not currently on the Sweet 16 list that you are keeping a careful eye on?
The factor at #6???? did you watch the Rebel??? This horse is freak and is peaking at the right time, This is the worst field ive seen at the Wood in years..Uncle Mo needs to be tested before the Derby
Ann, I have watched the Triple Crown intently since Secretariat ... what I meant is that horses in the past have been trained harder with the goal to be peaking on the First Saturday in May, obviously with the hope of maintaining that through the Belmont. With Uncle Mo on the other hand, I get the strong impression that they are trying to have him peak later, obviously with the hope that he can still win the Derby even though he may not have reached his ultimate fitness level. Pretty bold, wouldn't you say?
Hate to pin you down (not really!!), but, your statement about Mo, "I believe he is the only horse I have ever seen who seems to be trained for the Triple Crown," makes me wonder about a couple of TC near misses. Since you limit your perspective somewhat with those "I have ever seen", it may exclude some you didn't see that obviously were also trained for the TC (Secretariat, etc). So, what about some that were more recent "near TC", like Big Brown, Smarty Jones, et al? How did their training compare with Mo's?
The Florida Derby winner's Beyers speed will be "the bar" Uncle Mo must climb over in his Wood Memorial effort. Todd has his work cut-out after that last start. I know MO crushed them at CD in th BC Juvenile, but except for Street Sense, that's NOT the race that will predict his success in The KY Derby.
The problem with training and keeping Uncle Mo fresh for the Triple Crown is he may not be race ready for the Derby.
Flashpoint may be something special, but ... with sprint breeding on both sides of his pedigree, I will take a pass when it comes to Louisville.
florida derby will change all your minds when flashpoint romps by at least 5.He has to run in the florida derby ,not enough earnings yet
Good catch gentleman, I like to throw in a bug every so often to keep my readers on their toes ... either that or I accidently transferred the specifics for Alternate over onto The Factor's paragraph ;-)
Solid list , but you've got Donnie Von Hemmel as the trainer for The Factor. I doubt Baffert's going to part with him that easily.
Brian, I wish the Factor was by Distorted humor-Alternate by Seattle Slew then, we don't have to be concerned about him getting the 1/14m dierby distance. Unfortunately he is by War Fron-Greciousness by Miswak.He has a dosage of 2.73 which, hopefully, his sheer brilliance can overcome.
Race is Sunday not Saturday
For sure, with 4 of my top 8 running in the Florida Derby, things will shake out a bit Saturday evening.
Can't really argue with that list...just the order after the top three. We'll definitely know more after Fla Derby I'm sure.