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HRN Original Blog:
Zipse At The Track

Belmont Stakes 2013 - Overanalyze is due to win

Win one, lose one. Win another, lose another. It would appear that Overanalyze purchased a one-way ticket to Inconsistentville. On the other hand, he just might be ready to pull off a Belmont Stakes 2013 surprise.

Since his career debut on August 9, the Repole runner has a perfect win-every-other-start record.

1st - Md Sp Wt

4th - Hopeful

1st - Futurity

3rd - Iroquois

1st - Remsen

5th - Gotham


11th - Kentucky Derby

??? - Belmont Stakes

Now as an analytical bettor, and not a hunch player, I would never play Overanalyze simply because of his rather unusual pattern pointing to a win in his next start. Rather, I look for more concrete reasons why the long shot may have his day in the sun in the Belmont Stakes

- Draw a line through his Kentucky Derby. While it is true that this year’s Run for the Roses was rather uneventful as most Derbies go, Overanalyze did not have a great trip. Mind you, the trouble was certainly not enough to have put him up near Orb with a clean run, but without a couple of shuffled backs and losses of momentum, his middle of the pack finish could have been a whole lot better. Take note that the Todd Pletcher charge did finish full or energy once he had clear running. Secondly, the sealed and sloppy track at Churchill Downs may not have been to his liking. We don’t know that for certain, but I’m willing to give him another shot on a fast track that I know he likes.

- His only race at Belmont Park to date was very good … See below.


- His running style should prove effective in the Test of Champions. Overanalyze has demonstrated not only the ability to stay close to the lead when needed, but also the ability to make a strong move on the turn. A move like the one he used to win the Arkansas Derby over Oxbow and the rest, never too far off the pace, before pouncing on the turn, is often how the Belmont is won. Either way the pace shakes out in the Belmont, Overanalyze is tractable enough to take advantage.

- When he is in the running, he knows how to get to the wire first. While three of his four lifetime wins were rather easy, Overanalyze showed a strong desire to win in the Remsen when he repelled a strong challenge from the talented Normandy Invasion. It looked like he was beat, but he won the race on heart. After the first ten furlongs of the Belmont, having a horse who has the heart and desire to fight past the fatigue, and gut out a win, is a horse with which to be reckoned.

- Dixie Union is a good sire, and whether or not you believe in his ability to sire distance horses, the truth is he has solid distance influences in his pedigree. You also don’t have to go back far to find 1 ½ mile success for his offspring, as his best son, Union Rags won last year’s Belmont in his career finale. On Overanalyze’s female side, his broodmare sire, Unaccounted For, was a horse with classic distance breeding who finished in the money in both the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders’ Cup Classic at ten furlongs.

- The class is there. Despite his high profile failures, not many horses in this crop can claim three victories in grade 2 stakes or better like Overanalyze. He actually reminds me of another Repole/Pletcher horse in his Louisville losses, and New York success. That horse, Stay Thirsty, followed up his 12th place finish in the Kentucky Derby by running a good second in the Belmont at odds of 16-1.

16-1 in the Belmont. That sounds just about right for Overanalyze. Frankly, I like his chances.  

 

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Older Comments about Belmont Stakes 2013 - Overanalyze is due to win...

Agreed with Lenny. The track and the fact that Joel couldn't get him to the outside. The horse is not comfortable on the inside and so is Joel. If he run, Orb win the Belmont Stakes!
If he runs I stay with Orb...He's beaten the best of the best so far ...I believe the track bet him a t Pimlico
saw a grand slam tonight Edwin Encarnacion, lots of fun
Baseball. Loved to play it...WILL NOT watch it.
Orb only wins 4 out of 5 races as a 3yo. Gets a brutal trip after coming off a brutal trip. I hope everyone tosses him should he run. I won't be among those that do though. I never did like baseball, boring game the Russians invented.
johnny.joel is the least of the problems being fresh for the belmont.unfortunately the same cannot be said of the horse.personally i think shug is grandstanding.i would be shocked if he ran orb.i have always considered men like shug and mott, horsemen before the term trainers.take a look at who owns orb.the phipps family.they ran N.Y . racing for "x" amount of decades.it would be bad publicity for them to come right out and say he is a no go in their backyard.shug,you have a very nice 3yo on your hands.you accomplished what every little boy growing up in kentucky wants.you won the derby.that is like a kid growing up in the streets of N.Y wanting to play centerfield for the yankees ala JOE D. and THE MICK.this has nothing to do with winning and losing.he needs a rest.since last august at the spa(when he came out)he has not had a breather.from belmont to aqueduct to florida to kentucky to baltimor and now back home.i hope he flew all the time.he sure would of accumulated mileage.you get the point.nothing to prove.
This is a fascinating bunch that appear to be headed to the Belmont. Orb and Oxbow and four, five, six runners from Pletcher, then there's Freedom Child and Golden Soul. Hmmm, a real head scratcher.
If Joel Rosario's agent doesn't book 12 mounts on the same card which happened on Preakness Day, Orb will be the horse to beat with a fresh jockey in the irons!
I think he has a shot to win, although there will probably be 5-6 horses with a big chance to win the Belmont. If he is close to 16-1 he would be a good bet although I doubt if he will be that high in New York. I still think Orb is the best horse of this crop and with a top trainer like Shug, I expect him to run much better in the Belmont.
Who might you be referring to Brian?
Solid argument for Overnanalyze...like to triple "O" theory as well..lol. As of this week..still leaning on my Preakness moneymaker Oxbow and Baffert's Code West in Belmont but if Overnanalyze goes higher than 10-1...worth some money on him...will Bejarano ride him back?
Very true, Mary Z.
I hope this isn't too negative, but hardly any of this crop are all that fast, so why not Overanalyze?
Could be worth including. Interesting thoughts, Brian. I like this blog.
I love how the people that are consistently wrong, are the ones that are most sure of themselves in their comments.
With the exception of about 8 stamina imparting sires, stamina typically comes from the dam side of the family. Union Rags won the Belmont due to a good son of Mr. Prospector (Gone West) being his damsire. Grasshopper was the only other Dixiie Union colt to have success at 10 furlongs in the 2007 Travers, but his damsire was the great Unbridled.
Overanalyze doesn't have Mr. Prospector or Deputy Minister anywhere in his pedigree so he already has strike 1 and 2, and he doesn't pick up 10 - 12 furlong stamina on the dam side. Maybe with the right trip he can hang on for 4th or 5th but the Belmont is purely a stamina race.
If he runs like he did in the Futurity, he and Revolutionary will be dangerous. It seems to be the year of the O's, too - Orb - Oxbow - Overanalyze?
i like his chances he is my 2nd early pick. i told some friends he does this why i didn't use him in the derby. i also think he can get the distance. looking at him and golden soul.
it's the year of the long shots as im calling it. i wont be looking at the favorites in the belmont, which very well may be orb and oxbow. i think revolutionary will get some love. i think the long shots have the races in the bag this year....

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Meet Brian Zipse 

Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing since birth. Taken to the races at a very young age, he has been lucky enough to see all the greats in person from Secretariat and Ruffian through Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Before coming to the Nation, Brian displayed his love for the sport through the development of his horse racing website, which quickly became one of the most popular blogs in the game. 
  
As Managing Editor of Horse Racing Nation, Brian authors a daily column as Zipse at the Track, or ZATT for short, and adds his editorial flare to the overall content of the website. Brian also serves on the the Board of Directors of ReRun Thoroughbred Adoption and is a Vox Populi committee member. 
  
A graduate of DePaul University, Brian lives in Suburban Chicago with his wife Candice and daughter Kendra, where he is a professional golf instructor when he is not following the horses.