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HRN Original Blog:
Zipse At The Track

Any Fillies in this Year's Kentucky Derby?

Zipse’s Kentucky Derby Daily - Day 82
 
Fillies have accounted for themselves quite well in Triple Crown races in recent years. Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness in 2009. Rags to Riches was best in the Belmont in 2007. Both fillies ended long droughts for their gender in the respective Classics. As far as the Kentucky Derby, it has been a little longer, but both Genuine Risk and Winning Colors were able to win the Run for the Roses in the 1980’s. There has not been many fillies to attempt the Derby in the 22 years since Winning Colors. The short list includes: Serena’s Song (1995), Three Ring and Excellent Meeting (1999), the ill-fated Eight Belles (2008), and Devil May Care (2010). Only Eight Belles came close at the wire, finishing 2nd to Big Brown. Will there be a filly in 2011 that makes a run on the First Saturday in May? Chances are slim.
 
Scanning this year’s Triple Crown nomination list, it appears that it will be unlikely to see any fillies in America’s premiere race, let alone winning it. Of course there is the opportunity to be supplemented before the Derby, but at the moment there are only four fillies on the nomination list, and Turbulent Descent, one of the top fillies in California, is the only one of note. The other three are current unknowns: Fantasy of Flight, New Hyde Park, and Violadellamora. The likelihood of Turbulent Descent running in the Derby took a big hit when she was beaten by another filly Zazu in the recent Las Virgenes Stakes.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The top two fillies on my current Kentucky Oaks list, Kathmanblu, and Dancinginherdreams, were not nominated, and to this point their connections look more than satisfied to point their stars for the Oaks. Which leads me to believe as twenty horses line up for this year’s Kentucky Derby, there will not be a filly in the bunch.
 

[Could any fillies on HRN's current list of 2011 Kentucky Oaks Contenders compete if pointed for the Derby?]

 
                                                  *******************

In other Derby doings, Uncle Mo tops the freshly released Graded Stakes Earnings Top 20 list:
 
 1. Uncle Mo $1,260,000
 2. Gourmet Dinner $700,000
 3. Boys At Tosconova $532,060 - Off the Derby Trail.
 4. J P’s Gusto $490,000
 5. Comma to the Top $456,000
 6. Turbulent Descent $295,550
 7. Soldat $270,000
 8. Rogue Romance $258,000
 9. Dialed In $240,000
10. Clubhouse Ride $210,000
11. To Honor and Serve $210,000
12. Decisive Moment $200,000
13. Jaycito $200,000
14. Santiva $180,254
15. Anthony’s Cross $162,000
16. Riveting Reason $147,500
17. Blue Laser $143,502
18. Willcox Inn $139,000
19. Silver Medallion $124,334
20. Brethren $120,000
20. Sweet Ducky $120,000

 

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Older Comments about Any Fillies in this Year's Kentucky Derby?...

Contrary to popular belief, Turbulent Descent's last race was not a set back. However, she is on track for the Kentucky Oaks but would not disgrace herself if entered in the Derby.
There was a man named Paddy,can't remember his last name, who was a horse painter. It is said that he could make a 5yo stallion look like a 3yo filly. Now, if we could get the Mosses to agree....!
We will learn more about Inglorious this Saturday in the Rachel Alexandra.
It is either the Kentucky Oaks or Kentucky Derby but the filly name Inglorious is going to win some raced named Kentucky in about 10 weeks.
she was closing that gap quick, oh and i didn't mean i wanted her to rush to the front. i was saying just the timing was off on the late charge. by no means change the running style that spells doom in some cases.
she should have won that race.it wasn't like with turblent descent where she couldn't win.
well i think she just ran out of room and time is what my point was. she still looks fine to me.
Dancinginherdreams did not get a bad ride but was learning how to relax and finish. This from a recent interview with her trainer John Ward - "When she ran in the Forward Gal and came in second, she was sharp enough to go immediately to the lead and had the speed to do it. But, I don’t want to teach her to leave the gate in a sprint fashion because she is capable of endurance and has the physical structure to go two-turns in a race. I had to sacrifice the early part of the race in the Forward Gal the other day because I didn’t want to ruin her chances of being a horse that comes from behind."
dancinginherdreams and kathmanblu seem to be the best choices. i can't knock down dancining in her dreams for geting 2nd her last race. that was just bad timing by the jockey.
Great point Arazi. Sometimes temptation can get in the way of the wise decision ... for almost all fillies, the wise decision is the Oaks.
I agree with everyone that Kathmanblu and Dancinginherdreams stand out among the fillies. Brian, do you think maybe the connections decided against nominating for the Derby so they didn't have the temptation? With fillies of those quality, it actually seems sort of silly not to spend the $600 to have the option at least.
This looks like a good year for the top fillies to go in the Oaks. Unless the top contenders start dropping out, which happens a lot unfortunately, this looks like a good group of 3 year old colts. And with Uncle Mo looking like a super horse, it might be best to point to the Oaks then see how things look after the Derby.
Sounds like all 3 of us have them rated as 1-2 for the fillies ... personally I would rather see them in the Oaks.
My thoughts were the same as kyoaksrunner. Those would be the two i think would have a shot if nominated, particulary Dancinginherdreams. I think he style is suited for a filly in the Derby. she can sit back and avoid all the bumping and pick em up off the typical Derby hot pace in the stretch. The Oaks should be fun if both these girls show up there.
Thanks, I will check out Jennifer's interview. Still time to supplement, but they probably will headline a strong Oaks.
I was personally hoping that both Dancinginherdreams and Kathmanblu would be nominated, I think they both would have a great shot at winning. Jennifer Werth did a great interview with Dancinginherdreams' trainer, John T. Ward over on The Saturday Post blog.

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Meet Brian Zipse 

Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing since birth. Taken to the races at a very young age, he has been lucky enough to see all the greats in person from Secretariat and Ruffian through Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Before coming to the Nation, Brian displayed his love for the sport through the development of his horse racing website, which quickly became one of the most popular blogs in the game. 
  
As Managing Editor of Horse Racing Nation, Brian authors a daily column as Zipse at the Track, or ZATT for short, and adds his editorial flare to the overall content of the website. Brian also serves on the the Board of Directors of ReRun Thoroughbred Adoption and is a Vox Populi committee member. 
  
A graduate of DePaul University, Brian lives in Suburban Chicago with his wife Candice and daughter Kendra, where he is a professional golf instructor when he is not following the horses.