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HRN Original Blog:
Zipse At The Track

2011 Preakness – Early Preview

Preakness 2011

1. Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux-Dalicia, by Acatenango)   3-1
I may still be on a high from the Derby, but clearly this powerful chestnut ran a big enough race in Louisville to garner top spot on my early Preakness selections. His patented strong move on the turn should make him a real threat at Pimlico.

2. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno-Ponche de Leona, by Ponche)   9-2
The big youngster from the Kathy Ritvo barn may not have actually be three-years-old yet, but he proved his heart and talent through his strong finish in the Derby. A few more strides and he is second in Louisville; any improvement in Baltimore makes him a big contender.

3. Dialed In (Mineshaft-Miss Doolittle, by Storm Cat)   5-1
Failed as the Kentucky Derby favorite, but was plagued by a slower than expected pace. Still his methodical rally was only good enough to finish eighth. A faster pace will help, but he needs to be more involved earlier if he has any chance at Baltimore.

4. Mr. Commons (Artie Schiller-Joustabout, by Apalachee)   15-1
My favorite of the new shooters, Mr. Commons continues to progress under the patient tutelage of master trainer John Shirreffs. His Santa Anita Derby was not exactly flattered in Louisville, but he may be ready now to be the right horse at the right time in Baltimore.

5. Shackelford (Forestry-Oatsee, by Unbridled)   6-1
I’ll admit I was not overly excited about this colt’s chances of handling the 10 furlongs of the derby. Despite being passed by three horses late, he showed me a lot by fighting on gamely from the inside, just as he had done in the Florida Derby.

6. Sway Away (Afleet Alex-Seattle Shimmer, by Seattle Slew)  15-1
One of the more interesting horses in the field, this son of a Preakness winner has flashed the ability to make up gobs of ground quickly. He briefly looked like he was going to power home in the Arkansas Derby, before weakening. If he can handle the distance, he will be a threat.

7. Astrology (A.P. Indy-Quiet Eclipse, by Quiet American)  10-1
He has done nothing wrong in his two starts of 2011, but at the same time, I wonder how much he did right in those two starts. The well bred Assmusen runner needs to step things up, but that is certainly not out of the question in his 3rd start of the year.


[14 Choices for the Preakness 2011 ... who will Sherwin Root choose for his $200 wager? Congratulations to Root for winning the $200 bet by winning the ZATT Kentucky Derby Contest!]


8. Concealed Identity (Smarty Jones-Richetta, by Polish Numbers)  25-1
Why not Concealed Identity? The son of Smarty Jones did not look like much this winter at Laurel Park, but since he has arrived at Pimlico he has looked like a new horse. In this spring of upsets, who’s to say that the local horse can’t pull off a shocker.

9. Dance City (City Zip-Ballet Colony, by Pleasant Colony)  20-1
I can find a lot to like in this son of City Zip. What he lacks in experience he makes up for in improvement. In his last two, he showed great courage to win a good allowance and then hold 3rd in a strong Arkansas Derby. Not sure if he can win it, but I love the Pleasant Colony bottom side which should help him handle the added distance.

10. Flashpoint (Pomeroy-Two Punch Lil, by Two Punch)  12-1
The talent is there, anyone who saw the Hutcheson knows that, but can he really handle the Preakness distance? The Florida Derby did nothing to make me think that he can outrun his sprinty breeding, but I will fear the talented horse just a bit.

11. King Congie (Badge of Silver-Wise Ending, by End Sweep)  30-1
Consistent stakes winner continues to run nothing but strong races all spring, and Albertrani knows how to win the Preakness, but his dirt form is not stellar, and the competition will get a whole lot stronger on May 21.

12. Norman Asbjornson (Real Quiet-Merryland Missy, by Citidancer)  30-1
Hard knocking colt has run consistently run well since trying two-turns, so the distance of the Preakness shouldn’t bother him, but … the fact that he could not get closer to a laboring Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial leads me to believe he will be running for the middle of the pack at best.

13. Prime Cut (Bernstein-Life Happened, by Stravinsky)  25-1
Nothing particularly wrong with his last few races, but he did not quite show enough to be too excited about his chances in the Preakness. I also worry that 1 3/16 miles will be a little bit out of his comfort zone.

14. Saratoga Red (Eddington-Sigh of Relief, by Siphon)  50-1
Another Lukas runner with seemingly no shot in a big race … This seems to be happening way too often of late. I will look for him to be bringing up the rear as the horses hit the wire.

 

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Older Comments about 2011 Preakness – Early Preview...

Re:Crosseyed thats what i'm betting on
If Shackleford can hold off the late surge I got him going wire to wire..........But Dialed in and Animal Kingdom will make their usual late pushes
Made no sense not to have Sway Away draw into the Derby when Mo was scratched. How ironic it would be if he wins the Preakness.
Shackleford
Astrology! Hopefully, at a good price!
Sway Away!!!!!!
Animal Kingdom all the way!!
I'd lean toward Mucho Macho Man...he's still coming into his own, and with less of a field he should definitely be sitting the trip and get a jump on Animal Kingdom.
Latest Update ... Santiva is now considered likely to wheel back in the Preakness after a 6th in the Derby, while Prime Cut will run in the Peter Pan instead, and Saratoga Red will look for something a little less difficult for his next start.
I think the Preakness winner will come out of the Derby. For decades 2 weeks between races was considered the ideal spacing between races. And even in the last 10 years every winner of the Preakness, except Bernardini, has run in either the Derby or in Rachels case the Oaks. I just don't understand the current thinking that horses need 5 or 6 weeks between races. The only reason I can think of is the use of Lasix, but that is a topic for another of Brians blogs.
The Ky Derby taught me that there are Turf/synthetic horses that also run well on dirt. King Congie is the kind of horse that can run in heavy traffic and get to the wire. Maybe KC too can run on dirt?
I think Animal Kingdonm Is really good Horse. I just think the KY Derby is a brutal race to come back from on a short break. I will look for him to do well ... maybe a competitve 4th.
While still a possibility for the Preakness ... everything sounds like they will hold Nehro out and wait for the Belmont
so what happened to nehro?
It will again be Animal Kingdom rooooooarrrrring down the center of the track.
i like animal long neck which will carry him to the finish...
I don't know who would I blame for Dialed In lost but if I was the trainer of Dialed In I would have to be 8 to 10 length behide the leader base on the Alysheba stake group 3 race. Equestrio beat Dialed In by a head and in that race Dialed in was 5 lengths behind the leader and came 2nd and was flying. Equestrio run in the Alysheba race and got beat from First Dude and Regal Ransom who went in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic Equestrio lost by a head. Base in the Alysheba race and how Equestrio ran I would have to put Dialed In closer to the leaders not 15 length behide. I know that is Dialed In running style but with 19 horses in a race he had try something different. The truth is Dialed In going to beat any of those 3yo anytime he meet them again for those who saw Dialed In for the first time don’t rate him on the Kentucky Derby he is a way better horse than that trust me the Kentucky Derby base on a lot of luck sometimes the best horse don’t win the Kentucky Derby.
I like your line-up, Brian! My horses are all still at the top, and I like that. With Flashpoint, or possibly The Factor, in the race for some speed, maybe Dialed In runs a different race. Is this correct, or what do you see needs to happen for Dialed In to win? I would love for Mr. Commons to have a good showing, as well. Since the Preakness is a little shorter than the Derby, does this make a difference in which horses have a better shot?
Should be a legit pace in here with the likes of Flashpoint and Dance City to contend early with Shackleford. Looks like it should be a great race. Can't wait!
What is Saratoga Red doing wheeling back in two weeks after that awful performance in the allowance race saturday??

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Meet Brian Zipse 

Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing since birth. Taken to the races at a very young age, he has been lucky enough to see all the greats in person from Secretariat and Ruffian through Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Before coming to the Nation, Brian displayed his love for the sport through the development of his horse racing website, which quickly became one of the most popular blogs in the game. 
  
As Managing Editor of Horse Racing Nation, Brian authors a daily column as Zipse at the Track, or ZATT for short, and adds his editorial flare to the overall content of the website. Brian also serves on the the Board of Directors of ReRun Thoroughbred Adoption and is a Vox Populi committee member. 
  
A graduate of DePaul University, Brian lives in Suburban Chicago with his wife Candice and daughter Kendra, where he is a professional golf instructor when he is not following the horses.