• The Great War is off the Derby trail following poor finish in the BattagliaPosted 4 days ago
  •  Royal Son scores in the John Battaglia Memorial.Posted 4 days ago
  • Stellar Wind an impressive winner of the Santa Ysabel. Posted 4 days ago
  • Far Right shoots up the rail again to score in the Southwest Stakes. Posted 11 days ago
  • Khozan demolishes a Gulfstream Park allowance field to remain perfect in two starts. Posted 11 days ago
  • No beating North Slope as he returns to dirt a winner in the Evening Attire. Posted 11 days ago
  •  International Star scrapes the paint to win the Risen Star.Posted 11 days ago
  • I'm A Chatterbox speaks loud and clear in the Rachel Alexandra. Posted 12 days ago
  • Itsaknockout wins the Fountain of Youth on the DQ of Upstart. Posted 12 days ago
  •  Chocolate Ride sneaks away in the Fair Grounds Handicap.Posted 12 days ago

HRN Original Blog:
Pedigree Power


Older Comments...

what is Ocean Knights running style ?
Not the most handsome fellow with that funny looking noggin, musta got his looks from the Dam side family because his daddy was a STUD. He's Curlin's son and I love him anyways and if he keeps winning no one will notice, Lol!!!
  • Mark Kennedy via Disqus · He's got a ugly noggin but know what's special about him. Now I wouldn't want thi in a quarter horse or everyday horse but a lot of top race horses gave this. Drum roll. I like the whites of his eyes. He's got that pysco look · 21 minutes ago
Here is a fun futures bet. Toast of New York is the futures favorite for the 10 million dollar world cup at 5/1. He is also 30-1 to win the breeders cup classic. Osborne said that this year assuming that ToNY comes out of Dubai in good order, that he will run a few more preps in his breeders cup campaign on dirt. Remember he has run on dirt one time, and took 2nd in last years BCC. 30-1 seems like a pretty good deal considering last year he beat the both Chrome and Shared Belief.
Rewatched the 2011 BCJV...Forgot how good that race was.
  • Sullivan · And how great an impact it had! When the BCJ is run in the east, a lot of horses from the east run and make it a better decider of the future. While Santa Anita is a great venue, the trainers have voted with the entry box and they voted Churchill. · 1 hour ago
Soon you will all know the name Prospect Park , if you don't know it now , you will !
Chamois worked 5f today, March 5th, in 1:03:80 (b). It was the seconds fastest of 4 works at that distance.
Lubash worked 5f today, March 5th, in 1:05:00 (b). It was the third fastest of 4 works at that distance.
Sea Queen worked 4f today, March 5th, in 51 seconds flat. It was the fourth fastest of 13 works at that distance.
Woodfield Springs worked 4f today, March 5th, in 50:60 (b) over a firm turf course. It was the ninth fastest of 15 works at that distance.
Mutin worked 4f today, March 5th, in 50:65 (b). It was the tenth fastest of 15 works at that distance.
Wicked Strong worked 3f today, March 5th, in 35:90. It was the fastest of 3 works at that distance.
West Coast Belle worked 4f today, March 5th, in 47:40. It was the fastest of 33 works at that distance.
Initially i conceded this race to Shared Belief,just like everyone else. But after looking at the entries,from a horse i had winning the race at about 93 % positive. I change the odds to about 80 % . The presence of Moreno makes this race a bit more interesting. A loose speed is always dangerous,especially when he is fresh and has some quality to him. Unless the ghost of Bejarano comes alive and he goes after Moreno,with absolutely no regard for his own. Moreno will be loose in here. Makes it a bit tough for the Hall of Famer. He now will have to use Shared Belief a bit more than he would of wanted to. Not saying that he will lose. But the chances sure increased with this entry. Never been a fan of The Rajin Cajun and his Amateuristic attacks in an attempt to Trash Talk. But i think that he has this guy on as much a tilt mode as possible. Nathan now i can get into the race,rather than be a spectator.
  • Show All 16 Comments
  • vodkak · I have a very good understanding of wagering and since you don't know me you have no idea what types of bets I make yet you proclaim to. I will post a bet the day you post one of your bets which you have never done. You calling anyone a poltroon is ludicrous as you are worse than the pot calling the kettle black. You add nothing to this board other than your daily self aggrandizement. · 4 hours ago
  • cedar · I didn't see Moreno's name on the list for this race until today and am very excited to see him here as the only other G1 caliber horse besides SB. I think he has a legitimate shot with his early speed. Will hopefully make for a more interesting race. · 3 hours ago
Nathan back where he belongs in a more suitable distance. Field is tough,but multi speeds in the race work to his advantage.
Something new about his workouts?
Probabilities: each race has about 125 or so booking points. YOUR handicapping (just like the process in let's say GOLF when a real duffer gets a BIG break as compared to a season pro) establishes the projected probabilities (PLURAL). Like the concept of aptitude suggests that given an infinite amount of time, all evaluated will be able to attain whatever effort is needed for competence, assigning projected probabilities mean that the capper makes a line of ANY horse that has anywhere near the chance of getting there. THEN, one waits and sees what the crowd suggests their assessment of the probabilities are on that same 125-7 range. Close to post (when the odds come close to stabilizing) one then compares their PROJECTED to the OFFERED probabilities and looks for the underlays, the pushes and the underlays WHILE evaluating how much in the pool is not covered. IF you can set a Dutch that covers anything much more than 65% in the pool, you cash all day long. Exotic constructions varies a bit from this since many a non-contender has to be considered.
Laurel Park cancelled its live program and its simulcast programs Thursday, March 5 due to weather conditions. Live racing resumes Friday, March 6 with a 12:30 p.m. first race post time and a $29,500 Pick 5 jackpot carryover.
Should be winging early with blinkers back on if he goes off the one week respite. Pedroza will seemingly opt for Private Zone @ GP but M Garcia is open. Maybe he could take that straight run out of the gate so many demanded aboard Bayern and leave Moreno in the 5 path to the backstretch :)
QUOTE: "he has an enviable outside post outside." How do you conclude that when these are the meet stats on routes: http://www.nyra.com/assets/1/35/WS_-_12-03-2014_-_03-01-2015.pdf Typical distribution, 7 and inside are the best....FACT not fiction.
Personally a change in tactics is what is needed withEl Kabeir. This guys biggest asset is his natural speed and not his ability to sit and go at asking. He was succesful 2 races back,because the field was sub par. Not saying he won't win with the Rating tactics,but as the fields get stronger it will be more difficult for him. They ought to find out here ,if they truly have a Derby type caliber horse,when he runs his race. Lets face it,he is the most talented colt in this field,so why adapt to others. Let them beat you at your game.



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Meet Laurie Ross















I've been around horses for most of my life, working in racing stables as a hot walker and exercise rider in my teenage years, and later as a volunteer with rescued and retired racehorses. I became interested in pedigree when the sons and daughters of my favorite horses started their racing careers.   


For more than a decade, I've passionately studied pedigree, how it applies to handicapping and breeding theories. In 2010, I joined Horse Racing Nation as their Pedigree Analyst, focusing on juvenile stakes winners, Triple Crown contenders and first crop sires from a handicapping perspective.   


In 2011, I accepted the role of South Florida Coordinator and Advisory Board Member for the national non-profit Thoroughbred Racing Fan Association (ThoroFan). Working closely with Gulfstream Park management and other race fans, we created a ThoroFan Chapter at Gulfstream Race Track. Our main project is assisting Thoroughbred rescue and re-training groups.


I continue to maintain my website Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds and blog of the same name. As a pedigree consultant, I specialize in assisting small to mid-size breeding/training operations with broodmare breeding reports, sales catalog analysis and recommendations on claims and private sales. 10 - 20% of all proceeds are donated to Thoroughbred rescue and retraining groups.
I welcome your questions regarding pedigree, handicapping and breeding. If you would like me to cover a specific topic please contact me at lross@horseracingnation.com.