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HRN Original Blog:
Pedigree Power

Who's Hot and Who's Not at Keeneland: Sires, and Post Positions

The past week at Keeneland saw fairly chalky prices on Wednesday and Thursday and generous payouts over the weekend, including a whopping $108.60 in Friday's seventh race. Monday was the best day to score with a long shot. Eight of the nine races carded saw double digit win payouts.

Distorted Humor is still on fire at Keeneland. From seven starters, three have won and two have placed second (43% winners, 71% ITM). Giant's Causeway's offspring are right there too, with seven starters, three winners, a second and third place finish.

Who's hot:
Arch: 4-0-1-2 (75% ITM)
Catienus: 5-3-0-0 (60% ITM)
Curlin: 4-0-3-0 (75% ITM)
E Dubai: 3-0-1-1 (50% ITM)
Empire Maker: 5-2-1-0 (60% ITM)
Exchange Rate: 3-1-1-0 (75% ITM)
Flatter: 4-0-3-0 (75% ITM)
Hard Spun: 3-1-0-1 (75% ITM)
Harlan's Holiday: 4-1-1-0 (50% ITM)
Kitten's Joy: 9-2-1-1 (66% ITM)
Lemon Drop Kid: 8-2-1-0 (63% ITM)
Malibu Moon: 6-1-1-1 (50% ITM)
Majestic Warrior: 3-0-0-2 (75% ITM)
Orientate: 4-2-0-1 (75% ITM)
Point Given: 4-1-1-0 (50% ITM)
Posse: 3-1-1-0 (75% ITM)
Pulpit: 9-2-1-1 (66% ITM)
Scat Daddy: 5-1-0-2 (80% ITM)
Sky Mesa: 6-1-1-1 (67% ITM)
Stormy Atlantic: 4-1-0-2 (75% ITM)
U S Ranger: 2-1-1-0 (100% ITM)

Who's not:
Awesome Again
Bluegrass Cat
Grand Slam
Spanish Steps

Even The Score
Smarty Jones

Rockport Harbor

Lion Heart
Tale of the Cat

Bernstein, Corinthian, : 6-0-0-2
Unbridled's Song: 8-0-1-0

Post Positions:
Main Track Sprint:
39 sprints have been contested so far.
Outside is the place to be. Posts 7-9 have a 17 – 20% win rate.
Post 5 hits with 12%. Posts 1 and 4 are 1 for 39.

Main Track Route:
18 races a mile or longer have been held over the main track.
Overall, post position doesn't make a difference. Post 1 had three winners, while the rest were scattered.

Turf Sprint:
Only one turf sprint has been held. The winner came out of post 5.

Turf Route:
19 races a mile or farther have been contested.
7 (36%) have won from post 5; 3 (15%) from post one, and the rest were scattered.

Tomorrow we'll take a look at the jockey standings...



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Older Comments about Who's Hot and Who's Not at Keeneland: Sires, and Post Positions ...

That's news that Woodbine players can use.
I don't like the polycrap, it smells, gums up tails and throats etc., BUT since it is the surface I see everyday, I play it....I have a theory that the nature of a polytrack surface has to do MORE with the daily fluctuation in temperature and the drainage of the cushion MORE than the top surface itself, AND when it is close to wearing out, the front end bias is extraordinary.......Since about 10 tons of Jelly cord has been added here over the last two weeks, speed should NOT be to big a factor this weekend at Woodbine where just about all the races will be sprints.
Or the Chinese TODAY, after the millenia that have supported them, ask the I CHING to help them with their day...The spefics of it are voodoo, but the idea that change is ineveitable is around us all the time and we must adapt to it or perish, is the lesson here.
Good quote, but I will never be a polytrack guy
You just learn the new different patterns and adapt.That is what change is all about. Heraclitus, the Greek philospher: "You can never step in the same river twice."
I hate the polytrack. It's no fun seeing the rubber fly from underneath their hooves, and the sound isn't the same. Horses don't stay in front either and pace is botched
Laurie, really cool statistical analysis. Sports fans love their stats.

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Meet Laurie Ross


I've been around horses for most of my life, working in racing stables as a hot walker and exercise rider in my teenage years, and later as a volunteer with rescued and retired racehorses. I became interested in pedigree when the sons and daughters of my favorite horses started their racing careers.   


For more than a decade, I've passionately studied pedigree, how it applies to handicapping and breeding theories. In 2010, I joined Horse Racing Nation as their Pedigree Analyst, focusing on juvenile stakes winners, Triple Crown contenders and first crop sires from a handicapping perspective.   


In 2011, I accepted the role of South Florida Coordinator and Advisory Board Member for the national non-profit Thoroughbred Racing Fan Association (ThoroFan). Working closely with Gulfstream Park management and other race fans, we created a ThoroFan Chapter at Gulfstream Race Track. Our main project is assisting Thoroughbred rescue and re-training groups.


I continue to maintain my website Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds and blog of the same name. As a pedigree consultant, I specialize in assisting small to mid-size breeding/training operations with broodmare breeding reports, sales catalog analysis and recommendations on claims and private sales. 10 - 20% of all proceeds are donated to Thoroughbred rescue and retraining groups.
I welcome your questions regarding pedigree, handicapping and breeding. If you would like me to cover a specific topic please contact me at lross@horseracingnation.com.

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