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HRN Original Blog:
Pedigree Power

Key Factors to Winning at Del Mar

Summertime. To some people it means vacations, long days spent outside in the sunshine, picnics and trips to the beach.  Handicappers like picnics and trips to the beach too, usually surrounded by horses, past performances, and discarded losing tickets gleaming brightly in the sunshine. Of course, I'm talking about the rapidly approaching 2013 Saratoga and Del Mar meets.  Saratoga is the easier of the two tracks to handicap. You have your basic dirt and turf.  Del Mar on the other hand has Polytrack and turf.  Horses ship into Saratoga from all over and win.  No so at Del Mar. The jewel by the sea can stymie handicappers not used to the quirks and how the track plays. Like Keeneland, long-shot winners abound and what works at other tracks, including Keeneland, doesn't apply to Del Mar. Let's take a closer look at the primary factors to which horse players should pay attention. 

 

Key 1 - Top Feeder Tracks: 

Over the last couple of years, Del Mar has offered a ship and win bonus incentive to out of state horsemen.  While it's good for California to have a variety from the steady diet of state-breds, it can toss a monkey wrench into the PP's for the handicappers.  

 

Naturally, the majority of the winners last raced in California. Not surprising, since these horses make up to 90% of the fields, especially claiming races. 

 

Key 2 - Maiden Claiming Considerations: 

Sprints: Not so amazingly, the bulk of shippers last raced at Hollywood. 11% winners and 36% ITM scored.  At Del Mar, the horse for course is applicable. 13% winners and 37% ITM last raced at the track.  First time starters won 10% with 26% ITM. Not as many runners from Santa Anita went to the post, but 14% of them won and 38% were ITM.  

 

The few shippers from Calder, Lone Star, Monmouth and the California fair circuit failed to win, although the lone shipper from Monmouth did hit the board.   

 

Routes:  Watch the shippers from Hollywood, they have an excellent 18% win 47% ITM record.  

 

Key 3 - First Time Starters/Maiden Special Weight: 

Pay close attention to the maidens who prepped at Hollywood. 17% won sprints and 13% won going long on the main track. First time starters only won 9% of the sprints, but completed the exotics at 34% in sprints. Avoid them in turf routes, as last year they went 0-10.  

 

Claiming/ starter allowance winners and stakes races offered more variety and this is where the shippers showed their stuff.  When runners from Calder and Golden Gate show up, run to the betting window.  Combined, Calder horses in main track and turf races won a combined 83% with the rest hitting the board.  Golden Gate runners fared at 43% win and 50% ITM in all main track/turf contests.  

 

Key 4 - Toss Out of State Shippers: 

Out of state shippers seemed to do best in turf routes rather than main track contests. What about horses switching from Arlington, Keeneland and Woodbine – they should be a good play, right?  Nope. The paltry three that showed up to the Del Mar party failed to hit the board.  

 

 

Breeding For Success 

Polytrack has been in use long enough to gather relevant data about which sire's offspring have a proclivity for artificial surfaces. Look for offspring by these sires, especially the regional ones. This isn't an all inclusive, list, but most of the superior Polysires are represented below. Each sire has three or more runners at Del Mar since 2007. When you see their offspring on the card, chances are 50% or higher that the offspring will either win or finish in the money. Sometimes at very long odds.  

 

Keep an eye on the offspring of these sires. This is not an all-inclusive list. 

 

Key 5 - 20% + Polysires:


America's Storm, Arch, Artie Shiller, Black Minnaloushe, Bwana Charlie, Candy Ride, Cactus Ridge, Carson City, Cindigo, City Zip, Da Stoops, Distorted Humor, Even the Score, Explicit, Forest Camp, Ghostzapper, Great Notion, Half Ours, Kela, Lawyer Ron, Limehouse,  Peace Rules, Pico Central, Pollards' Vision, Proud Citizen, Pure Precision, Roar of the Tiger, Salute the Sarge, Street Cry, Street Hero, Sun King, Sunriver, The Cliff's Edge, The Green Monkey, Tiz Wonderful, Value Plus, Vicar, War Front, Werblin, West Acre, Yankee Gentlemen. 

 

Popular California Sires aren't always a good bet.  Lost Soldier (60% winners) and Tribal Rule (18% winners) are the exception.  Benchmark (14% winners) is always worth a second look, espeically when the offspring are working very well over the Polytrack. Unusual Heat (14%) winners are best played at the age of three and up.  Decharchy (12% winners)  Swiss Yodeler (11% winners) Awesome Gambler and Bertrando (9% wins each) are best played in your exotics.   

 

Key 6 - Strong Works: 

Similar to Keeneland, many of the competitors will have superior Poly breeding but so-so dirt running lines.  Watch the works very carefully on any horses switching from dirt or Cushion Track, they will tell you a ton about how they feel about Poly. Here are two classic examples that illustrate this point:  

 

July 18, 2012 Race 10, 3 YO fillies & mares, maiden claiming.  The winner, Miss Lady Ellen, was making her debut for the O'Neil barn (high percentage barn). Her sire Benchmark is a 14% Polysire. She was the only filly in the field with a work at Del Mar.  Miss Lady Ellen went to the post at 6-1 odds and paid her backers $14.40 to win.   

 

 

 

 

 

August 5, 2012 Race 6, 2 YO fillies, MSW. The winner, Pontchatrain is by a superior Polysire (War Front). Even though the Proctor barn had only a 9% win rate with first timers, this filly clearly showed her love for the Polytrack with her works which were a full two seconds faster at Del Mar than at Hollywood.  Totally ignored, Pontchatrain opened at 12-1 and went to the post at 17-1. Astute handicappers were rewarded with a $37.00 win payday.     

 

 

 

 

Of course, one should also take into account the female family, not just the sires and rate individual horses on their own merits.  In the next article, we'll take a look at trainers, jockeys and the Del Mar track bias.  

 

Past performances courtesy of Brisnet 

 

 

 

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Older Comments about Key Factors to Winning at Del Mar...

Great stuff, Laurie. This just very well might be more guidebook this summer for Del Mar.
I like the point Laura makes about workouts. This angle works wuite a bit on Poly. Coming from KY the workouts can be spotty and unreliable with many training centers posting self reported times. In SoCal workout times are legit. Since I started following this angle I have seen many winners signal their fondness for the poly with a sharper workout over it in advance of a race. Good stuff here Laura.
I wonder why the Calder shippers run so well? Is it the deeper surface they are coming in from has them dead fit. Or could it be the new barns they enter in SoCal move them up?
This article should be kept close by as we start playing Del Mar. The Poly Sire list is a wonderful tool. Turf players often look for certain sires to improve on grass. Same logic holds on Poly.
Great article, Laurie. Thank you for all the info.
Watch out for Garret Gomez on those 10-1 horses at Del Mar.
Hopefully keeping in mind that the races are not always run in the order they appear in the condition book.
unique venue..An old trick was to see if Shoe had a mount in the last race. If the booked off, no bet, but if he stayed put to ride, winning percentage was well above his normal
Age, I've always felt tht way about you. Love yuour posts.
Del Mar is always good times. Track right on the beach in Del Mar. Beers and Fish Tacos at the Brigg or Fish Market before then a day of racing enjoyment. Cant' beat it in my opinion.
LAZ--wow, I appreciate that. You complimenting me feels like Secretariat bragging on Golden Soul. Thank you.
The dirt was much more fathomable than Del Mar's poly to this punter >> Thanks, Laurie--maybe The Green Monkey catches fire this summer at the beach :)
Great points Age of Reason.
Dangit Laurie, you've spilled all my Del Mar secrets! LOL I hope this will help others cash in at Del Mar like I do :) It's not as tough as some people say!
Travel-Vic, I'm surprised at you. Do you not remember Del Mar's old dirt track, constantly changing like a teenage girl changes clothes? I recall hearing once about a card on Del Mar dirt, where in one race a state-bred maiden ran the fastest 5 furlongs of the meet, and thirty-some minutes later in an overnight stakes they could barely break 1:12 for 6 furlongs. Track crew's explanation? "The tide came in"... With Del Mar's unique setup literally on the ocean, and the resulting constant and sometimes drastic fluctuations in humidity, one might as well just expect track changes instead of complaining about "petroleum-based crap" (as if the dirt was any better many times). Fact is, in a place like Del Mar, ANY kind of surface that isn't completely impermeable to water/moisture (asphalt? concrete?) is going to change, and quickly. Besides, we've already got an asphalt track at Santa Anita! ;)
Wow, Laurie, thanks for all the info.
BEFORE, when the track was understandable. the same rules more or less applied all season long. Now with that petroleum based crap track, biases change from the 1st to the 4th race....That material is horrid. have you ever taken a hand of it up close? Carpet fibers, wax dirt. Cloesest thing it reminds me of is the stuff inside your vacuum clearner bags once you have to change them.

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Meet Laurie Ross
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I've been around horses for most of my life, working in racing stables as a hot walker and exercise rider in my teenage years, and later as a volunteer with rescued and retired racehorses. I became interested in pedigree when the sons and daughters of my favorite horses started their racing careers.   

 

For more than a decade, I've passionately studied pedigree, how it applies to handicapping and breeding theories. In 2010, I joined Horse Racing Nation as their Pedigree Analyst, focusing on juvenile stakes winners, Triple Crown contenders and first crop sires from a handicapping perspective.   

 

In 2011, I accepted the role of South Florida Coordinator and Advisory Board Member for the national non-profit Thoroughbred Racing Fan Association (ThoroFan). Working closely with Gulfstream Park management and other race fans, we created a ThoroFan Chapter at Gulfstream Race Track. Our main project is assisting Thoroughbred rescue and re-training groups.

 

I continue to maintain my website Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds and blog of the same name. As a pedigree consultant, I specialize in assisting small to mid-size breeding/training operations with broodmare breeding reports, sales catalog analysis and recommendations on claims and private sales. 10 - 20% of all proceeds are donated to Thoroughbred rescue and retraining groups.
 
I welcome your questions regarding pedigree, handicapping and breeding. If you would like me to cover a specific topic please contact me at lross@horseracingnation.com.