On Saturday the national horse racing spotlight will be on
Florida, New York and California as Kentucky Derby prep graded stakes races are
on tap at Tampa Downs (FL), Aqueduct (NY) and Santa Anita (CA). Of the three,
the (Withers Stakes) race in New York may have the least impact on the Derby
picture.
Let me explain. The powers-to-be at Churchill Downs Inc.
(CDI) developed a new "Derby Point System"
that will determine the pecking order as to which colts, geldings and/or
fillies are given the chance to "Run For The Roses", if more than 20
are entered in the 139th running of the Kentucky
Derby. This
“system” anointed specific races where points would be awarded to the first,
second, third or fourth place finishers. Of the 3 traditional prep races run
this weekend, only the Sam F.
Davis (@ Tampa) and Robert B.
Lewis (@ Santa Anita) are designated "point
system" races. Therefore, one would think these two races would attract
the most interest, leaving the Withers to play second (or in this case third)
fiddle. Not quite, eight (8) are scheduled to run in the Withers, while the
Robert B. Lewis only attracted four (4). Go figure?!
First up will be the $200k G3 Withers
Stakes at Aqueduct, race 9 (Post Time 4:18pm EST) on
the card at 1 1/16 miles over the inner dirt course. The prohibitive Morning
Line favorite is #2 - Revolutionary
(3-5) who broke his maiden by 8½ lengths in his fourth career start. On paper
this Todd
Pletcher trainee appears to be a standout, but we know
races aren’t run on paper, so he’ll need to turn back 7 rivals on the track.
Trainer Kiaran
McLaughlin will start a pair of talented colts #1 –
Long
River and entrymate #1A – Valid
(7-2 M/L). The former ran 4th in the G2 Jerome last out while the latter was
broke his maiden at Laurel Park in a convincing manner on last day of 2012.
Other contenders here are #3 – Escapefromreality
(6-1) will be the likely pacesetter as he stretches out to two-turns from two
career sprints; #4 – Amerigo
Vespucci (15-1) still looking for respect after
getting SHOW purse money at 39-1 in the Count Fleet Stakes as is #5 – Siete de Oros
(8-1) who at 41-1 lost to
Vyjack by a head in the G2 Jerome on Jan. 5th.
WITHERS PLAY: $10 WIN / PLACE #1/#1A Entry and $2 Exacta box 1-2-4
Next up at Santa Anita is the $200k G2 Robert B. Lewis
Stakes, contested at 1 1/16 miles, the 4th race on the
card. Post Time is set for5:03pm EDT. Really?! Only 4 horses… really?! Hard to
believe with all the so-called Derby candidates on the west coast, this race
came up so short. Even more pathetic, only 2 horses were nominated by the Jan.
24th deadline. Only one of them was entered, #2 – Flashback
(3-5). Trainer Bob
Baffert always has his horses Road to the Roses well
mapped out. So my thoughts are this son of Tapit has been prepping for for the
Lewis since winning his career debut on Dec. 8th. I envision a gate-to-wire
victory. Looming the biggest threat is #4 – He’s
Had Enough (3-1) for the connections who sent out I’ll
Have Another. Both #1 – Little Jerry (8-1) and #3 –
Den's Legacy (5-2) will fight it out for the minor shares
and points.
ROBERT B. LEWIS PLAY: $30 WIN #2
Lastly on Saturday is the $200k G3 Sam F. Davis
Stakes at Tampa Downs,11th race on the card, Post Time
5:23pm EST). The 9-5 Morning Line favorite is the Mark Casse entry of #1 –
Northern
Lion and #1A - Dynamic
Sky. The latter won the $100k Pasco Stakes over this
course on Jan. 12th. His stablemate exits a 5½ length maiden score at
Gulfstream Park travelling today’s distance of 1 1/16 miles. Other of note are
#4 – My
Name Is Michael (4-1) recently turned over to the
capable hands of Graham
Motion after 4 lifetime starts over the synthetic
surface at Woodbine; #5 – Speak
Logistics (3-1) last seen finishing 7th in the G1 BC
Juvenile last November and #8 –
Falling Sky (5-1) who was purchased for $425k this month,
after ending his 2 year old campaign with a victory in a tough Optional Claimer
at Gulfstream Park on Dec. 15th. The rest of the field comprises of 3 Also-Rans
from the Pasco Stakes, a Nick
Zito maiden winner at Tampa and a turf winner who
broke his maiden in a $12,500 Claiming race.
UPDATE: POE #1 - Northern Lion is SCRATCHED
SAM F. DAVIS PLAY: $30 WIN #8 / PLACE #8 and $1 Tri Part-Wheel 4, 5, 8, 9 w/ 1 w/ 4, 5, 8, 9
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Recapping the previously posted pathetic selections at
Laurel
Park from Saturday, Jan. 26th had just 4 winners from
9 races (2 Top Selection; pay-offs shown in BOLD
type) having $2 WIN pay-offs of
$5.40 (2nd), $4.60
(6th), $3.60 (8th) and $6.40 (9th).
The BEST BET of the Day (5 0-0-0)
Ciguaraya (4-1 PT; 5-1 M/L) raced 4-wide in the early stages,
loomed a serious threat while being asked at the 5/16th pole, but was unable to
sustain that drive, flattened out and finished 5th of 10.
The LONGSHOT PICK
(5 0-0-1) Mister Dish (7-1 PT;
8-1 M/L) was unhurried early but then moved into contention, splitting foes and
looked like a threat at the head of the stretch, but flattened out in the final
furlong, salvaging 3rd place purse money, returning $4.80 to SHOW.
For Saturday races the weather forecast calls for Sunny skies with
no chance of precipitation, meaning the track will be FAST at
Laurel
Park on Saturday Feb. 2nd.
1st race – $10,000 Maiden Claiming for 3 y.o. – 5½ furlongs
#5 – Dublin Gulch (6-1)
#1A – Whatsthequestion (2-5) note: POE #1 – Light of My Life ***
SCRATCHED ***
#4 – Mountain Bird Song (8-1)
2nd race – $5,000 Claiming for 4 y.o. & up – 6 furlongs
#5 – Flavor (9-2)
#3 – Ninety Five South (8-1)
#2 – It’s Never Too Late (2-1)
3rd race – $15,000 Claiming for F&M 4 y.o. & up – 5½
furlongs
#4 – Monster Sleeping (5-1)
#1 – Vicarious Won (8-5)
#7 – Changingoftheguard (6-1)
4th race – $14,000 Claiming for 4 y.o. & up – 6 furlongs
#1 – Dinny Dinosaur
(10-1) $$$
LONGSHOT $$$
#6 – Lemon Juice (8-1)
#2 – Azicharmyou (5-1)
5th race – $5,000 Claiming N2L for F&M 4 y.o. & up – 7
furlongs
#4 – Miss Bad Girl (7-5)
#1 – Sicut Quercus (5-1)
#8 – Brightlingsea (4-1)
6th race – $50,000 Optional Claiming for 3 y.o. fillies – 1
mile
#4 – Seven Stars (5-2)
#3 – Majestic Marquet (2-1)
#7 – Sea Lady (10-1)
7th race – $25,000 Claiming N2L for F&M 4 y.o. & up – 6
furlongs
#1 – Jim the Dancer (9-5)
#4 – Mendassity (3-1)
#8 – Lady Geegee (9-2)
8th race – $125,000 Wide Country Stakes for 3 y.o. fillies – 7
furlongs
#5 – Walkwithapurpose (5-2)
*** BEST BET ***
#1 – Dear to All (2-1)
#7 – Power Lady (7-2)
9th race – $5,000 Claiming N2L for F&M 4 y.o. & up – 7
furlongs
#3 – Friendly Princess (5-1)
#7 – Smoky Opal (6-5)
#1 – Saratoga Notes (10-1)
GOOD LUCK!