Youth springs eternal and stars are on the rise this weekend the
national horse racing spotlight will be on Florida and Louisiana as Kentucky
Derby prep graded stakes races are on tap Saturday at Gulfstream Park (Hallendale,
FL) and Fairgrounds (New Orleans, LA). These two (2) races are the first two of
the eight (8) Championship Season “First of Two Legs” of the Derby Point System
races. Each of the eight (8) races, the last being the Sunland Derby on March 24th offers
the following Derby points… 50 points to the winner, 20 to runner-up, 10 to
third and 5 point to fourth place finishers. The second of the two legs have 7
races worth 100-50-20-10 points.
First up will be the $400k G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes
at Gulfstream Park (GP), race 11 (Post Time 5:35pm EST) on the card at 1 1/16
miles over the main dirt surface. In 70 runnings (first in 1945) the Fountain
Of Youth has produced just four (4) Kentucky Derby winner s… Tim Tam (1958),
Kauai King (1966), Spectacular Bid (1979), and Thunder Gulch (1995).
Saturday's 11th race
(5:35pm EST) at Gulfstream Park is the $400k G2 Fountain Of Youth
Stakes for 3-year-olds;going 1 1/16 miles. A field
11 is scheduled to go postward, but trainer Mark Casse
plans on scratching #9 - Sky Captain in favor of
an easier spot next weekend, but mainly due to the bad Post
Position the son of Sky Mesa drew in the
FOY.
The Morning Line prohibitive 9-5 favorite #3 -
Violence (9-5) who is 3
for 3 lifetime and makes his much anticipated 3 y.o. debut for trainer
Todd Pletcher. On paper, his main rivals are #10 - Falling Sky (6-1) who comes in after winning the G3 Sam F. Davis @ Tampa Downs
and #4 - Majestic Hussar (6-1) who
ruined Palace Malice's 3 y.o. debut in the slop last out.
Interesting stats at GP: Proportion of 8.5 furlong (i.e. 1 1/16 mile) dirt races since 2010 won gate-to-wire: 24% (104 races); At the current meet, 33% have won gate-to-wire going this distance (43 races) while that percentage this past week stands at 54% (13 races).
So with the speed bias of the Gulfstream Park dirt course this time of year (year after year), one should lean towards a speed horse in here. It should be noted that the heavy favorite (Violence) has never shown early speed in any of his 3 career races.
HOW I SEE IT: GP
8.5f races have been very kind to early speed types (54% in the past week; 42%
for the meet). This bodes well for Majestc Hussar, Falling Sky, #5 -
Elmutahid (20-1) and #8 - Speak Logistics (12-1). This leaves #1 - Orb (12-1) and Violence to take up the chase from mid-pack. Now do you
really think that TAP has Violence cranked-up for this one?! I think not!
The
Fountain Of Youth Play: $2 Tri Part-Wheel 4, 5, 8 w/ 3 w/ 1, 4, 5, 8, 9
That's Majestic Hussar, Elmutahid and Speak Logistics
w/ Violence w/ Orb, Majestic Hussar, Elmutahid, Speak Logistics and He's Had Enough
About 20 minutes later in NOLA, a field of 13 will break from the
gate in the $400k G2 Risen Star Stakes at Fairgrounds Race Course, race 10 (Post Time 4:57pm
CST) on the card at 1 1/16 miles over the main dirt surface. Fifteen (15) were
entered but #12 – He’s Had Enough will run in the Fountain Of Youth at GP and #15
– Sunbean will instead run in race 3 at FG.
Previously known as the Louisiana Derby Trial Stakes, in 1989 it was renamed to
honor locally-owned Risen Star who won the race in 1988, ran 3rd in
the Kentucky Derby, and went on to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. In 42
runnings (1973-2012) of this race, the winner has never gone on to win the Kentucky
Derby.
The Morning Line favorite is #9 - Normandy
Invasion (5-2), last seen losing a head-bob decision
to Overanalyze in the G2 Remsen at Aqueduct in November. Among the highly
touted making their stakes debut are #1 – Proud Strike (8-1), #2 – Code West
(6-1), #5 – Mylute (6-1) and #14 – Departing (12-1).
HOW I SEE IT: This is a tough race
because of the way FG is playing (Speed bias) and fact it will be OFF (Sloppy).
I typically love Closers (Proud Strike and Normandy Invasion), but it ain't
happening here. Since there is plenty of early speed, it's a crap shoot as to
who gets a clean break and first run into the clubhouse turn. Jockey Rosie
Napravnik takes off #5 – Mylute to ride #6 – Palace Malice (8-1) for Todd
Pletcher. Palace Malice he should get a nice Stalking trip, and love the
stretch out and OFF track, just as his Daddy (Curlin) did, getting first jump
on the leg weary early speed in mid-stretch while holding off a furious late
charge by Normandy Invasion..
The Risen Star PLAY: #6 - $10 WIN, $20
PLACE; $1 Tri Part-Wheel 2, 6 w/ 9 w/ 1, 2, 6, 10
That's WP on Palace Malice then for the TRI Code West, Palace Malice w/ Normandy Invasion w/ Proud Strike, Code West, Palace Malice, Oxbow
Recapping the previously posted selections at Laurel
Park from Saturday, Feb. 16th had 7 winners from 9
races (4 Top Selection; pay-offs shown in BOLD
type) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $3.20
(1st race), $3.80 (2nd), $5.20 (3rd), $7.60 (4th),
$17.00 (6th), $3.00 (7th), $2.80
(9th).
The BEST BET of the Day (7 1-0-0)
Adirondack King (2-1 PT; 5-2 M/L) broke inward bumping the
eventual winner. Though he raced forwardly in the early stages, he could not
keep pace with the top 3 finishers, settling for 4th as the
second-choice at Post Time.
The LONGSHOT PICK
(7 0-0-1) Tyler’s Smile (9-1 PT;
6-1 M/L) received a cold reception at the betting windows and proved the
betting public correct, as he was wide throughout the race and offered no
threat to his rivals, finishing a distant 7th.
For Saturday races the weather forecast calls for a 80% chance of rain, meaning there’s strong possibility the
track will be OFF (i.e SLOPPY or MUDDY) at Laurel
Park on Saturday Feb. 23rd . Selections for
all races posted were handicapped based on making multi-race wagers such as
DOUBLE’s, Pick-3’s and Pick-4’s using all three (3) listed for each race in
each leg.
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1st race – $12,000 Maiden Claiming for F&M 4 y.o. & up –
5½ furlongs
#3 – Scipion’s Girl (8-5)
#2 – Gracious Gracie (2-1)
#1 – Sacred Hope (6-1)
2nd race – $5,000 Claiming for F&M 4 y.o. & up – 7
furlongs
#5 – Sweet Yulianna (5-2)
*** BEST BET ***
#4 – Social Statement (2-1)
#6 – Cambria Queen (10-1)
3rd race – $16,000 Maiden Claiming for 3 y.o.– 6 furlongs
#7 – Rainbowappears (3-1)
#1 – Southern Partner (5-2)
#2 – True Compass (3-1)
4th race – $7,500 Claiming for 4 y.o. OR 5 & up N3L – One mile
#4 – Self Destruct (3-1)
#5 – Last Laugh Now (7-2)
#1 – Dinos Romance
(9-5)
5th race – $38,000 Maidens for F&M 4 y.o. & up – 5½
furlongs
#6 – Libertytown Lass
(10-1) $$$ LONGSHOT $$$
#10 – Northern Curlew (4-1)
#5 – Magic Fire (6-1)
6th race – $7,500 Claimng.for 4 y.o. & up – 5½ furlongs
#5 – City Genius (9-2)
#1 – Peaceadaaction (5-1)
#6 – Dancing Roman (10-1)
7th race – $25,000 Optional Claiming N2X for 4 y.o.& up – 6
furlongs
#1 – Itsnottheright (5-2)
#8 – Manito (2-1)
#7 – Pryce’s Posse (8-1)
8th race – $125,000 Maryland Racing Media Stakes for F&M 3
y.o.& up – 1 1/8 miles
#7– Moon Philly (8-5)
#8 – Blessed Soul (30-1)
#6 – Touch the Birds (6-1)
9th race – $8,000 Maiden Claiming for 4 y.o. & up – 7
furlongs
#8 – Spicer Cub (8-1)
#4 – Someones Lion (4-1)
#7 – Roccamo (2-1)
GOOD LUCK!