Breeders' Cup 2014

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  • American Pharoah is out of the BC Juvenile due to a bone bruise. Posted 3 days ago
  • Dame Dorothy remains unbeaten in the Turnback the Alarm! Posted 5 days ago
  • West Coast Belle wins the Rags to Riches for fun! Posted 5 days ago
  • Conquest Tsunami storms to victory in the Street Sense! Posted 5 days ago
  • Military Attack defeats a top field in the Sha Tin Trophy! Posted 5 days ago
  • Canadian Lexie Lou wins the Autumn Miss at Santa Anita! Posted 5 days ago
  • Pick of the Litter edges Departing in the final strides of the Fayette! Posted 6 days ago
  • Salutos Amigos is best in the Bold Ruler! Posted 6 days ago
  • Adelaide wins a thrilling edition of the Cox Plate! Posted 6 days ago
  • 201 Pre-entered for the Breeders' Cup, including 15 in the Classic. Posted 9 days ago
HRN Original Blog:
Maryland's Own GQ

2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf: Short History, Long Odds


Everyone loves babies. Especially cute, unpredictable “whittle” girls. That is, everyone except horseplayers, when you’re talking about 2-year-old thoroughbred fillies… running on the turf to boot. The typical race track short-term investor wants to have a plethora of past performances to peruse to find a nice priced winner. With “babies” you have to look beyond the past performances.

That’s the beauty of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Introduced to the Breeders’ Cup two-day format in 2008, it has never produced a Post Time favorite winner. In the five (5) runnings of this contest, the lowest $2 WIN payout was $12.20 (Stephanie’s Kitten in 2011), with the average being $20.80. 

So contrary to popular belief, history indicates this is not the race to single the favorite in your multi-race exotics. At this writing, the likely Morning Line favorite will be Vorda (FR). Winner of 4 of 5 career outings in France and the UK, she carries the same blue and white silks of Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa Al Thani, who won this race last year with Flotilla (FR). She’s trained by Philippe Sogorb with 4-time BC winning rider Olivier Peslier in the irons.
 



Other top contenders include a quartet of Irish-breds…

Chriselliam (IRE)
5:2-1-0 (C.B. Hills/Richard Hughes): Hard to figure as she was 9th in career debut, then won 2nd outing. Took giant step up into a G3 but was outrun (9th). Since then has come back to place in a minor stakes on Sep. 7th and win the G1 Shadwell Fillies Mile @ Newmarket on Sept. 27th. Jekyll & Hyde type.

Clenor (IRE) 6:3-0-1 (Doug O’Neill/Rafael Bejarano): Started in UK (2 @ Curragh; 1 @ Cork) with 5th, 4th then 3rd place finish; shipped to SoCal where she’s 3 for 3. Broke her maiden @ Dmr (Aug. 7th) and followed that win victory in Oak Tree Fillies Turf @ Dmr on Sep. 2nd. Most recently won the Surfer Girl Stakes during opening weekend at SA. She’s on a perfect, race-every-4-week schedule. One to watch!

Tapestry (IRE) 3:2-0-1 (Aidan O’Brien/Joseph O’Brien): After impressive maiden win took the giant step up into a Group 2 and won. Since the only way from there was up, went in Group 1, was Post Time favorite but only managed to run third, but was promoted to 2
nd via disqualification of the runner-up. Never underestimate Team O’Brien in BC races.     

Rizeena (IRE) 8:4-2-1 (Clive Brittain/James Doyle): Has had a busy 2-year-old campaign thus far, hitting the board in Group 1 & 2 races in his past 5 starts. Got beat by both Vorda (FR) and Chriselliame (IRE), but took care of a favored Tapestry (IRE). One not to take lightly!

The North American 2-year-old fillies who pose the biggest threat to the Euro invaders are…

My Conquestadory 2: 2-0-0 (Mark Casse/Eurico Da Silva): Skies the limit. She made her career debut against the boys in the Grade 2 Summer stakes. For an encore, she easily won the Grade1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes, a “Win & In” contest for the BC Juvenile Fillies (not Turf). She’s a serious contender if connections opt for run here instead.

 



Llanarmon 2: 1-0-1 (Roger Attfield/Emma-Jayne Wilson): Third in career debut when steadied early then displayed a furious late kick going 7 furlongs prompting Attfield to take a shot in the “Win & In” Gr. 2 Natalma Stakes. The result was a ¾ length victory, when 8-5 favorite Ready To Act leading by 2 in mid-stretch, veered out sharply and lost her rider.


Testa Rossi (FR) 6: 4-1-0 (Chad Brown/Jose Lezcano): First 5 career starts were in France in maiden and allowance company. Shipped to the states where Chad Brown threw her to the wolves in the “Win & In” Gr. 3 Miss Grillo Stakes. Result: A game victory by a nose.

Others who might find their way to the entry box…

Flying Jib (GB) 3: 2-0-0 (Dermot Weld/Patrick Smullen) won Staffordstown Stud Stakes at The Curragh (UK) is possible based on comments by the trainer in an Oct. 13
th racinguk.com article.

Al Thakhira (GB) 2: 2-0-0 (Marco Botti/Silvestre De Sousa): Easy winner of the Vision.ae Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket (UK) have owners with Breeders’ Cup fever according to the sportlife.com article on Oct. 12th.

Ken Ramsey loves the big stage. So look for up to three of his kittens to be entered…
Kitten Kaboodle 3: 1-2-0  (Chad Brown/Alan Garcia) broke maiden in Gr.2 Jessamine @ Kee on Oct. 9
th, getting BC fees paid via this “Win & In” event.
Lien On Kitten 2: 2-0-0 (Wayne Catalano/Channing Hill) rallied to win Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies going 7f.
Granny Mc’s Kitten 3: 1-1-0 (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) 3-wide throughout when 4
th in Miss Grillo and personal favorite of Mayor McCheese.


Ready To Act 2: 1-0-0 (Chad Brown/Rajiv Maragh) was enroute to a victory in the “Win & In” Gr. 2 Natalma Stakes, but didn’t take kindly to a righthanded whip in mid-stretch, veered out sharply and lost her jock.
 

Nesso 3: 1-2-0 (Vann Belvoir/Martin Garcia) 2nd in Surfer Girl @ SA, lost lead late. There’s something to be said for home court advantage and would try to steal it on the front end.

Zinzay
2: 1-2-0 (George Arnold/Joe Rocco, Jr.) 2nd as betting choice in Gr. 2 Jessamine @ Kee; Has turf pedigree to keep improving.


To find out about the other Breeders' Cup races, check out these blogs on HRN
:

 

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Older Comments about 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf: Short History, Long Odds...

I certainly hope Clenor works lights out befor the BC. Why? I want to play against her aggressively. She has run slower than par while beating absolutley nothing in SoCal where the division stinks. I don't think she has been extended but if she takes heavy money (she will) find other viable options who are battle tested versus some real competition.
Clenor is my pick right now. Even before her US debut the O'Neill barn was talking BC for her & she hasn't done anything to think any different.
I agree with you there, Tom.
Florida,at the rate these guys are winning,regardless who they throw out on the track.One can't go wrong betting a Ramsey horse on the turf.Talk about Eclipse Awards, i think he locked up the top owner in August.
I really like Kitten Kaboodle's Jessamine win. At this rate, the best bet is to just pick a Ramsey and/or Kitten's Joy horse.
I keep hearing how S.A. dirt is so Speed favoring.Since the meet started about 2 weeks ago,speed is winning at about 30% at all distances.This past Monday,all the dirt races were basically won off the pace.You want to know what speed tracks do,refer to Belmont between Sept 14 and Sept 27th when something like 60% of the horses won on the front end,the balance of the majority sat the rail.If management decides to scrape the surface as they do on big days,yes the track will assist the lesser talented horses gain a couple of lengths.But as a whole,I for one will not allow the myth to deter me from betting the best horse suited under the conditions of the race.
I can see your argument, Andy, much like many others are making, especially because SA dirt is so speed favoring. However, I'd like to see how well she handles the dirt now as opposed to deep in her 3 YO season. The bottom of her pedigree screams dirt while the top screams turf. If she runs well and still loses, I don't see it as that much of a bad thing because they would know how to campaign her going into next year rather than figuring it out as it goes. Vice-versa, if she does absolutely nothing and shows no desire to run on the dirt, they still know how to campaign her. My point, I'd rather have those questions answered now than later. Of course, there's no exact science to this, I.E. I'll Have Another whom did nada in the Hopeful his 2 YO season and then never lost another conventional dirt start for the rest of his short career. Cheers, Andy!
I, too, would like to see My Conquestadory in the Juvy Turf, than on the SA dirt.

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                Meet Gary Quill

  I am the most passionate person on the planet when it comes to thoroughbred horse racing! One sunny summer day in 1964 at Timonium Race Track is where my Dad and mentor introduced me to “The Sport of Kings”. Since that day, I have had the pleasure to visit over 40 different tracks across North America. Though an IT professional by trade, I’ve had a part-time gig with the Maryland Jockey Club since 1988.

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here are thousands of rail-birds who claim to be great handicappers. Well, I don’t claim to be the best… just the most passionate and one that won’t tout “chalk”. Like a savvy stock broker, I look for value and often find it. Unlike the talking heads on horse racing television networks and the dozens of websites featuring handicapper’s opinions, I’m ACCOUNTABLE. That is, good or bad, you’ll always know how my previously posted picks performed along with a running record of my BEST BET and LONGSHOT Play of the Day selections.

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   My personal mission is to rejuvenate interest in thoroughbred horse racing. Being able to share my energy, thoughts and opinions on this sport via HRN will certainly help the cause.

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